Crisis in the Ukraine

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SampanViking

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It seems that the militia have started their counter offensive and that the first blow has landed over night in the City of Shakhtyorsk. It is clear that the militia have inflicted a lot of damage on the Ukrainian 25th Airborne Brigade.

I will try to find some images fit to post, but sad to say, most are far to graphic to reproduce.

the BBC is also reporting about a militia ambush of a Ukrainian column. Its not clear if this is the same event or a separate attack

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(BBC link updated and does seem to be discussing the same action).
 
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Dannhill

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Many sites are pointing to the Instagram account of a young comm specialist Russian soldier with a BuK unit and claiming that his selfies with Instagram is the smoking gun proving the involvement of Russian units operating inside Ukraine with the separatists. The claims also extended to his unit shooting down the MH17.

This is one of the site making such claims:

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This is the Russian soldier's Instagram account:

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His geotagged photos can be checked if you Follow him and use your mobile to check his geotag map which I did and saw only 2 photos taking from a salient point of Ukraine land jutting into Russia in the shape of a boot with the 2 photos tagged at the top of the boot. The distance is about 20 miles from Luhanska and 106 miles, according to Google Map measurement, from Donetsk.

I cannot accept this as a "smoking gun" of Russian participation in the civil war, beyond the fact that the 2 photos showed the Russian unit as having intruded less than 2 miles into Ukrainian territory.

This is the map. Just look for the boot shaped salient of Ukraine territory jutting into Russia.

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Additional Info:

I just did a test with FakeGPSFree for android which you can download from Google Play. My Instagram Geotag Map shows that I took a photo of my pc monitor at Donetsk, Ukraine.
 
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delft

Brigadier
Dutch and Australian experts have for the first time, after a delay of a week, reached the crash site to recover bodies and personal possessions, but as yet only about sixty men. It will take several days before the full force of the mission is active. People who were there a week ago say the wreckage looks just the same. The stench of dead bodies is noticeable.
This according to my favorite radio station.
 

Sputnik

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It seems that the militia have started their counter offensive and that the first blow has landed over night in the City of Shakhtyorsk. It is clear that the militia have inflicted a lot of damage on the Ukrainian 25th Airborne Brigade.

I will try to find some images fit to post, but sad to say, most are far to graphic to reproduce.

the BBC is also reporting about a militia ambush of a Ukrainian column. Its not clear if this is the same event or a separate attack

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(BBC link updated and does seem to be discussing the same action).
video:
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Sputnik

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Ukrainian Tu-143(UAV) shot down
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Bt9O2KTCUAEUUBu.png:large

Bt9O2CnCIAEEdff.png:large

[video=youtube;icmUwtFC1Ac]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icmUwtFC1Ac[/video]
 

SampanViking

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More footage from fighting around Shakhtyorsk.

Footage shows Militia mortar attacking Ukrainian positions on the outskirts of the town.
The camera seems to be with the spotters, the distance is long so the footage is grainy, shaky and with dodgy focus at times.
Clearly though several armoured vehicles take direct hits and possibly even an ammo dump. Plenty of secondary explosions and obvious signs of ammo cooking off!

[video=youtube_share;JrPJ7PxNLcs]http://youtu.be/JrPJ7PxNLcs[/video]

A bit more on the "contentious" SS-21 story with Russian media carrying stories of NATO confirming their use as per the original CNN story

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This follows a news conference by Strelkov and Antiufeev warning about an attemp by Kiev to use conventionally armed SS-21 missiles to attack Chemical plants in Donetsk and Lughansk in order to create a false flag chemical attack.

The official Russian narrative of the Ukrainian tragedy already contains three false flag incidents. The Maidan Shootings, the Odessa burnings and the MH17 shoot down.

[video=youtube_share;e13SPFFIVkM]http://youtu.be/e13SPFFIVkM[/video]

It is also worth noting that while we now have records of these missiles being fired, we have no information to confirm that they landed, which means that stories of Russian interceptions are still in play.
 

SampanViking

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No idea where this fighting is taking place, but some rare footage of Militia forces on the offensive

[video]http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=60c_1407023689[/video]

Heading says its Dmytrivka

What I saw, apart from Infantry was a T64, a couple of BTR's and at least two towed AT guns, plus a selection of trucks and lighter road vehicles.

I am wondering if; given a good selection of equipment and the previous military experience of many of the militia, whether such militia units are purely improvised or actually based on proven formation types?
 
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SampanViking

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A quick update on the general situation on the ground.

It looks very much as though last weeks Ukrainian offensive had three main objectives

1) Cut of the city of Donetsk from the rest of militia held territory

2) Secure the Crash site of MH 17

3) Force a passage through and relieve the units holding out in the Southern Cauldron.

It also looks as though the offensive has run out of steam without achieving a single one of them.

I did say earlier that the offensive thrust from the West, to isolate Donetsk by taking Shakhtyorsk and Torez was in danger of repeating the same mistake as the thrust that created the Southern Cauldron. Seems I could be correct and that this front is now being called the "Southern Intestine" This is where the 25th Airborne have been taking a pounding along with other supporting units.

One effect of last week was to give heart to the units trapped in the Southern Cauldron, but it now seems that realising that relief is now not coming, Morale has crashed.
Once again a trickle of forces have started to present themselves on the Russian border
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This comes against the background of a lot of talk of the militia negotiating the passing of some 1,500 Ukrainian troops safe passage to Russia in return for leaving their Equipment Weapons and Ammunition behind.

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Obviously everything needs to be taken with a "health" warning, but I think we can take the overall thrust of the militia claims with confidence.
We see again the familiar pattern of the Ukrainian offensive largely led by artillery against Militia held towns. Where the barrage manages to disrupt and disorder the Militia, the Ukrainians are able to advance, where they do not, they cannot and when they do advance and eventually run into organised resistance, they themselves are quickly disordered and thrown back, clearly also with heavy casualties, attested too by the very graphic videos and pictures which have circulated over the last few days.

Ultimately this is a national state army, fighting a local militia. They should have finished this a long time ago or at least be now storming the final urban bastions of Donetsk and Lugansk, long isolated from the Russian borders. They have achieved nothing close and it looks highly unlikely that they ever will.

Once the cauldon; no doubt followed closely by the Intestine, collapses, do not be surprised to see systemic collapse ripple through the remainder of the punitive force, as morale falls through the floor.
 
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