A quick update on the general situation on the ground.
It looks very much as though last weeks Ukrainian offensive had three main objectives
1) Cut of the city of Donetsk from the rest of militia held territory
2) Secure the Crash site of MH 17
3) Force a passage through and relieve the units holding out in the Southern Cauldron.
It also looks as though the offensive has run out of steam without achieving a single one of them.
I did say earlier that the offensive thrust from the West, to isolate Donetsk by taking Shakhtyorsk and Torez was in danger of repeating the same mistake as the thrust that created the Southern Cauldron. Seems I could be correct and that this front is now being called the "Southern Intestine" This is where the 25th Airborne have been taking a pounding along with other supporting units.
One effect of last week was to give heart to the units trapped in the Southern Cauldron, but it now seems that realising that relief is now not coming, Morale has crashed.
Once again a trickle of forces have started to present themselves on the Russian border
This comes against the background of a lot of talk of the militia negotiating the passing of some 1,500 Ukrainian troops safe passage to Russia in return for leaving their Equipment Weapons and Ammunition behind.
Obviously everything needs to be taken with a "health" warning, but I think we can take the overall thrust of the militia claims with confidence.
We see again the familiar pattern of the Ukrainian offensive largely led by artillery against Militia held towns. Where the barrage manages to disrupt and disorder the Militia, the Ukrainians are able to advance, where they do not, they cannot and when they do advance and eventually run into organised resistance, they themselves are quickly disordered and thrown back, clearly also with heavy casualties, attested too by the very graphic videos and pictures which have circulated over the last few days.
Ultimately this is a national state army, fighting a local militia. They should have finished this a long time ago or at least be now storming the final urban bastions of Donetsk and Lugansk, long isolated from the Russian borders. They have achieved nothing close and it looks highly unlikely that they ever will.
Once the cauldon; no doubt followed closely by the Intestine, collapses, do not be surprised to see systemic collapse ripple through the remainder of the punitive force, as morale falls through the floor.