Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[PiSigma]

Be safe my friend, we will be thinking/praying for you, there is only one pi sigma! We don't want to loose u!

Thanks! Ill see how I feel in a couple of days. Hopefully just a mild case. I am youngish (35), don't smoke and decently in shape. I think the boredom of trapped in my office will kill me if nothing else.

 

[AndrewS]

A good article on the development of vaccine.

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My very concise summary:
----
Three most promising vaccines:

The US vaccine (mRNA-1273): Could have it by fall this year. But it might just kill you before the virus does.

The Chinese vaccine (Ad5-nCoV): The front runner across the globe. It should be out by December this year. This one is safe but probably will not help you.

The British vaccine (ChAdOx1): This one is safe and effective. But you are probably dead by then because the vaccine won’t be out until May 2021.

Could you expand on the comment that "The Chinese vaccine (Ad5-nCoV)" "is safe but probably will not help you?"
It's based on the nearly identical Ebola vaccine which is already in Phase 2, and only waiting on an actual real-life outbreak for Phase 3 trials.

---

Also, the US vaccine (mRNA-1273) is aiming for Autumn 2020, for use on high-risk groups like doctors and nurses.
But given the US vaccine (mRNA-1273) is based a completely new approach, shouldn't we expect the Chinese (Ad5-nCoV) vaccine to be available for high-risk groups even earlier? After all, the Chinese vaccine is nearly identical to the existing Ebola version.

---

And I noticed that the British vaccine (ChAdOx1) is conducting Phase 1 and Phase 2 simultaneously, because it is based on an existing vaccine. Presumably a Chinese (Ad5-nCoV) vaccine would follow the same approach?

After all, when you're talking about global population of 7.8 billion - there's essentially no difference between:
1. 50 volunteer subjects in Phase 1
and
2. 500 volunteer subjects in Phase 2

 

[AndrewS]

White House Pushes U.S. Officials to Criticize China For Coronavirus ‘Cover-Up’

BLAME GAME
A State Department cable obtained by The Daily Beast says the U.S. and the American people are the “greatest humanitarians the world has ever known.”



As the number of coronavirus cases continues to grow at a rapid pace in the U.S., the White House is launching a communications plan across multiple federal agencies that focuses on accusing Beijing of orchestrating a “cover-up” and creating a global pandemic, according to two U.S. officials and a government cable obtained by The Daily Beast.
The cable, sent to State Department officials Friday, lays out in detail the circumstances on the ground in China, including data on coronavirus cases and deaths, the local business environment and transportation restrictions. But it also issues guidelines for how U.S. officials should answer questions on, or speak about, the coronavirus and the White House’s response in relation to China.
The talking points appear to have originated in the National Security Council. One section of the cable reads “NSC Top Lines: [People’s Republic of China] Propaganda and Disinformation on the Wuhan Virus Pandemic.”
“Chinese Communist Party officials in Wuhan and Beijing had a special responsibility to inform the Chinese people and the world of the threat, since they were the first to learn of it,” the cable reads. “Instead, the... government hid news of the virus from its own people for weeks, while suppressing information and punishing doctors and journalists who raised the alarm. The Party cared more about its reputation than its own people’s suffering.”

The cable was disseminated to officials at a time when the administration is engrossed in a communications battle around how to disseminate the flow of crucial health information to the American public while at the same time deflecting criticism that the White House was unprepared for the pandemic and that President Trump is at odds with members of his coronavirus task force.
One of the results of those internal deliberations appears to be a renewed focus on underscoring China’s missteps. Two U.S. officials working on the administration’s coronavirus response said the White House is pushing federal agencies to stick closely to the national security council’s talking points, especially when senior officials take to the podium, to ensure continuity with President Trump.
“These talking points are all anyone is really talking about right now,” one official said. “Everything is about China. We’re being told to try and get this messaging out in any way possible, including press conferences and television appearances.”
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Over the last several weeks top administration officials, including President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have referred to the coronavirus as both the “Chinese virus” and the “Wuhan virus.” Beijing’s leaders have pushed back on the designation, claiming the terms are xenophobic and inaccurate now that the virus has spread to dozens of countries across the world. American doctors and scientists involved with the administration’s task force operations continue to call it “the coronavirus.”
“The [Chinese Communist Party] is waging a propaganda campaign to desperately try to shift responsibility for the global pandemic to the United States. This effort is futile,” one of the talking points in the cable reads. “Thanks to the… cover-up, Chinese and international experts missed a critical window to contain the outbreak within China and stop its global spread. Saving lives is more important than saving face.”
But the administration isn’t just focusing on criticizing China, it’s also painting America’s response to the global pandemic as “extraordinary humanitarianism”.
“The United States and the American people are demonstrating once again that they are the greatest humanitarians the world has ever known,” according to the cable. “The United States stands ready to provide more assistance to China, if the Chinese Communist Party would allow us to do so.”


The cable notes that the U.S. has donated millions of dollars worth of medical supplies and provided financial assistance for countries trying to fight the coronavirus.
As of last week, about “95 percent of China’s cities and prefectures had reported zero new cases in the past 14 consecutive days as of March 19, including 16 of the 17 prefectures and cities in Hubei Province,” according to the cable, which noted that the State Department had conducted an analysis of the data.
“Cases among Chinese travelers infected in other countries accounted for virtually all the new cases reported outside Hubei since March 13,” according to the cable. “While the vast majority of these cases are Chinese nationals, the first confirmed imported case of a U.S. citizen was reported in the Shanghai consular district.”
Meanwhile, in the U.S., the number of positive coronavirus cases ticked above the 20,000 mark Saturday morning, with more than 270 deaths reported.

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That plan apparently has been cancelled, partly because the US/Trump has realised they need Chinese medical supplies.

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[ZeEa5KPul]

A good article on the development of vaccine.

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My very concise summary:
----
Three most promising vaccines:

The US vaccine (mRNA-1273): Could have it by fall this year. But it might just kill you before the virus does.

The Chinese vaccine (Ad5-nCoV): The front runner across the globe. It should be out by December this year. This one is safe but probably will not help you.

The British vaccine (ChAdOx1): This one is safe and effective. But you are probably dead by then because the vaccine won’t be out until May 2021.

The article says Ad5-nCoV won't finish all testing until 2022 and nothing about it be inefficacious.

 

[hydrogenpi]

Any news on the supposed potential second wave in the China?

First I heard they re-shut Movie Theaters. then there is the Jia County gets quarantined again, and now last night they didn't publish the latest numbers? Hope there is not a re-explosion of hidden cases.

 

[AssassinsMace]

The symptoms of coronavirus that have been reported basically cover every illness now. Like I posted earlier I might've had it around Super Bowl time. I checked what were the symptoms then and there weren't as many as they're describing now so I didn't think my symptoms matched. Now... maybe. Did I feel like I was dying? No, but it was something I don't recall experiencing before. Some people reported pain in the left leg. I had a pain in my left shin the first day I was bed-ridden. I had a runny nose but not stuffed. No problem breathing though. The news showed that video of someone walking through a Spanish hospital where the hallways had people laying on the floor sick. You can hear this weird cough in the background and the reporter mentions that's a signature symptom. For a day, I had a dry coughing attack and it sounded similar where it was a honking type cough. The worst lasted about a week but it took another week to feel back to normal. On the bright side, If I had it, I probably have the antibodies.

 

[localizer]

So it seems like China:

Can't sell medical supplies since that would be exploitation.
Can't donate medical supplies since that would be propaganda.
Can't not give medical supplies since that would be genocide.

 

[supercat]

Any news on the supposed potential second wave in the China?

First I heard they re-shut Movie Theaters. then there is the Jia County gets quarantined again, and now last night they didn't publish the latest numbers? Hope there is not a re-explosion of hidden cases.

China started to announce asymptomatic cases yesterday. So they posted the data late. Here are the data.

On Mar. 31, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, there are 1,367 asymptomatic cases. Of this, 130 are new cases. On Mar. 31, 302 asymptomatic cases were confirmed to be negative and released from quarantine. 2 asymptomatic cases start to show symptoms (chart 1).

There are 36 new cases (35 imported), 26 new suspect cases (all imported). See chart 2. There are 7 deaths nationwide (chart 3). There are 76,238 cured cases, and 2,004 exsisting cases (chart 4). Cases in Hong Kong and Macau continue to rise (chart 5).

Chart 1:


Chart 2:


Chart 3:


Chart 4:


Chart 5:

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[KYli]

Any news on the supposed potential second wave in the China?

First I heard they re-shut Movie Theaters. then there is the Jia County gets quarantined again, and now last night they didn't publish the latest numbers? Hope there is not a re-explosion of hidden cases.

They did public the latest number. Things have tightened up due to so many imported cases.

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[Faithlock]

Could you expand on the comment that "The Chinese vaccine (Ad5-nCoV)" "is safe but probably will not help you?"
It's based on the nearly identical Ebola vaccine which is already in Phase 2, and only waiting on an actual real-life outbreak for Phase 3 trials.

---

Also, the US vaccine (mRNA-1273) is aiming for Autumn 2020, for use on high-risk groups like doctors and nurses.
But given the US vaccine (mRNA-1273) is based a completely new approach, shouldn't we expect the Chinese (Ad5-nCoV) vaccine to be available for high-risk groups even earlier? After all, the Chinese vaccine is nearly identical to the existing Ebola version.

---

And I noticed that the British vaccine (ChAdOx1) is conducting Phase 1 and Phase 2 simultaneously, because it is based on an existing vaccine. Presumably a Chinese (Ad5-nCoV) vaccine would follow the same approach?

After all, when you're talking about global population of 7.8 billion - there's essentially no difference between:
1. 50 volunteer subjects in Phase 1
and
2. 500 volunteer subjects in Phase 2

I was just joking in my description of all three vaccines. It was tic.

Any way, I am happy that the most promising vaccine is a Chinese vaccine.

If the Chinese vaccine come out first and prove safe and effective (over that of the American and British ones), it would be a big psychological shock to the world and further confirm that China is not just a manufacturer of lower tech stuff but is on her way to be a technology superpower.