Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

vesicles

Colonel
COVID is a type of flu, belonging to coronavirus family. Common cold appeared with the agricultural revolution roughly 10,000 years ago. At the time, very few people had immunity to it. So the death rate was massive and quick. Today the survivors of common cold have varying degrees to COVID because it's not that different from common cold. As you can see death rate hasn't been that high, only about 1%.

As I’ve mentioned in one if my earlier posts, fatality doesn’t appropriately describe the situation anymore. With so many infected, hospital capacity is the key now. If the hospitalization is comfortably below our hospital capacity, the fatality of 1% would be acceptable. However, our hospitals are overwhelmed and our confirmed cases are still climbing fast. That means, in a few weeks, we won’t be able to treat new patients, with no more available doctors, no medicine and no equipment. Without any of these, a common cold can develop into pneumonia and kill anyone in weeks. We won’t be able to do anything, except watching bodies piling up.

Addition to that, anyone with a heart attack or an injury from a car accident or any other commonly treatable illnesses won’t be able to be treated because of lack of hospital beds, lack of doctors who are now tied to COVID-19 patients, as well as loss of doctors who become infected themselves. We will soon see increased deaths from other avoidable illnesses. Patients who need surgery for organ transplants, bypass surgery, etc won’t get the surgeries because all elective surgeries will be pushed back. Many of these patients will die.

The key is not death rate. It’s about keeping hospitalization below hospital capability. With so many infected, even at 1% fatality, our health care system is collapsing as we speak. The curve is still climbing and still far from peak. Even if we reach the peak today, it might take a few weeks to go down. Our supplies of medicine, equipment and personnel will deplete long before that. Then we go back ancient times when we had to rely on our own bodies to fight infections and that will be when you see death rate to skyrocket. It’s a negative feedback loop that will snowball into a nightmare.

This is why this attitude of “this COVID thing is just a flu” is very dangerous. No matter how you want to play with numbers, the fact is people are responding to this virus differently than the common flu. The fact is hospitalization is skyrocketing and collapsing our health care system. No one wants to be hospitalized. I’m sure a huge percentage of these patients don’t even believe the virus is a big deal. If given a choice, none of them wants to be in a hospital. Yet, their bodies cannot handle the virus as they would like to believe. And that’s why we need to do something drastic to lower the infected cases. Let the hospitals recover their capabilities. It’s not a serious illness. We can beat it when we have the resources to beat it. And our resources are being depleted fast.
 
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vesicles

Colonel
In other words, it’s no longer about the death rate or any other ways of calculatinf fraction or percentage. It’s now about the absolute numbers of cases, which are tied to capacity. We need to lower the absolute numbers to recover capacity.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
In other words, it’s no longer about the death rate or any other ways of calculatinf fraction or percentage. It’s now about the absolute numbers of cases, which are tied to capacity. We need to lower the absolute numbers to recover capacity.

What is your take on how overwhelmed hospitals will be in Texas, Florida and Arizona?

Assuming there is a 2 week lag between catching COVID-19 and then being diagnosed and potentially hospitalised?

Along with shortages in terms of staff, equipment, drugs and PPE/masks etc
 

vesicles

Colonel
What is your take on how overwhelmed hospitals will be in Texas, Florida and Arizona?

Assuming there is a 2 week lag between catching COVID-19 and then being diagnosed and potentially hospitalised?

Along with shortages in terms of staff, equipment, drugs and PPE/masks etc

We’ve passed the overwhelm stage... We are turning away patients now. In a few weeks, we will be forced to choose whom to save and whom to let die since we will need to figure out ways to conserve resources for only portions of the patients. To be honest, I am very worried at this point. In March, I was confident that we would plateau in a few weeks and the curve would go down in a few months. Now, I have no clue what will happen next. My fear is that, in a month or so, our government will simply give up and open everything. I don’t know what our hospitals will be like at that point... I’m turning more and more pessimistic as we go...
 

Austin Powers

Junior Member
Registered Member
As I’ve mentioned in one if my earlier posts, fatality doesn’t appropriately describe the situation anymore. With so many infected, hospital capacity is the key now. If the hospitalization is comfortably below our hospital capacity, the fatality of 1% would be acceptable. However, our hospitals are overwhelmed and our confirmed cases are still climbing fast. That means, in a few weeks, we won’t be able to treat new patients, with no more available doctors, no medicine and no equipment. Without any of these, a common cold can develop into pneumonia and kill anyone in weeks. We won’t be able to do anything, except watching bodies piling up.

Addition to that, anyone with a heart attack or an injury from a car accident or any other commonly treatable illnesses won’t be able to be treated because of lack of hospital beds, lack of doctors who are now tied to COVID-19 patients, as well as loss of doctors who become infected themselves. We will soon see increased deaths from other avoidable illnesses. Patients who need surgery for organ transplants, bypass surgery, etc won’t get the surgeries because all elective surgeries will be pushed back. Many of these patients will die.

The key is not death rate. It’s about keeping hospitalization below hospital capability. With so many infected, even at 1% fatality, our health care system is collapsing as we speak. The curve is still climbing and still far from peak. Even if we reach the peak today, it might take a few weeks to go down. Our supplies of medicine, equipment and personnel will deplete long before that. Then we go back ancient times when we had to rely on our own bodies to fight infections and that will be when you see death rate to skyrocket. It’s a negative feedback loop that will snowball into a nightmare.

This is why this attitude of “this COVID thing is just a flu” is very dangerous. No matter how you want to play with numbers, the fact is people are responding to this virus differently than the common flu. The fact is hospitalization is skyrocketing and collapsing our health care system. No one wants to be hospitalized. I’m sure a huge percentage of these patients don’t even believe the virus is a big deal. If given a choice, none of them wants to be in a hospital. Yet, their bodies cannot handle the virus as they would like to believe. And that’s why we need to do something drastic to lower the infected cases. Let the hospitals recover their capabilities. It’s not a serious illness. We can beat it when we have the resources to beat it. And our resources are being depleted fast.

Hospitals in the west don't admit you to stay if you don't have serious conditions. Not like in China where socialism means hospitals have a lot of responsibility. More than 90% of COVID patients in the west are sent home where they infect many other people.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
We’ve passed the overwhelm stage... We are turning away patients now. In a few weeks, we will be forced to choose whom to save and whom to let die since we will need to figure out ways to conserve resources for only portions of the patients. To be honest, I am very worried at this point. In March, I was confident that we would plateau in a few weeks and the curve would go down in a few months. Now, I have no clue what will happen next. My fear is that, in a month or so, our government will simply give up and open everything. I don’t know what our hospitals will be like at that point... I’m turning more and more pessimistic as we go...

When there are scenes of dead bodies piling up outside hospitals, your state governments will be forced to act, if they haven't already.

So you don't have to worry about them giving up and opening everything.

---

So there is a time lag from initial infection to being diagnosed.
Call it 2weeks.

Based on past numbers in Texas and Florida, the total number of diagnosed cases will almost double in that time.

So you could expect twice as many hospital admissions for serious cases requiring intensive care.
 
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