Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

Quickie

Colonel
42% of cases in Tianjin are moderate cases which mean some kind of pneumonia. Therefore, Omicron can't be treated as flu yet.
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今日(1月26日),天津市疾病预防控制中心副主任张颖表示:奥密克戎是否是“大号流感”,还需要继续观察,需要更多证据。但疫情病例临床表现来看,确实它不能被看作是大号流感。


奥密克戎(Omicron)自2021年11月出现以来,已有128个国家和地区报告发现了奥密克戎变异株。世卫组织称,新冠病毒奥密克戎变异毒株在全球总体风险评估为“非常高”,传播速度非常快。虽然已经感染了多个国家成千上万名的民众,但是由于大部分人的临床反应没有德尔塔等毒株强烈,因此有人将其称为“大号流感”。


张颖表示:“在所研究361例阳性感染者里面,有42%是普通型,从临床诊断上来说,普通型无论是轻还是重,是有肺炎的表现。对于疾病来说,如果有肺炎占比能达到42%,就不能等同于大号流感。因为我们都知道流感病毒所造成的疾病是以上呼吸道症状为主,会有慢性基础性疾病的人群,会合并肺炎,细菌性的肺炎或病毒性的肺炎,但比例是远远要少于42%的构成比。就目前天津疫情来说,我个人觉得对它是大号流感持一个观望,还是需要在临床上继续来观察。”


前瞻经济学人APP资讯组

Could it be a more virulent variation of the original Omicron variant?

42% moderate is very high because I quite often hear more than 98% of cases of the other variants are mild cases although this can be partly due to high vaccination or the way they define the symptoms.
 

B.I.B.

Captain
It is not surprising that Beta and Delta were mentioned because they are the only available variants that any new vaccine can be tested against. It doesn't mean the vaccine is specifically designed against them.

Here is the Chinese source from Sinopharm's head of research institute Li Qiming:
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一代设计抗原蛋白时用的是病毒原型株的部分蛋白,如新冠病毒的S蛋白的关键区域。而二代疫苗研发,在抗原的设计上就不一样。

研发团队主要负责人、国药中生生物技术研究院院长李启明进一步解释,针对变异株流行的新趋势,在第一代疫苗的基础上,利用计算结构疫苗学技术平台,通过分子模拟和计算建模方法,对各种变异突变位点的免疫逃逸能力进行了全面的定量计算评估,研发团队设计开发了第二代重组新冠疫苗。

据了解,二代免疫抗原不局限于此前业内聚焦的新冠病毒S蛋白关键区域。也就是说,一代“照猫画虎”越像越好,而二代建模分析、计算评估,有“揣摩神韵”的意思,因此在激发抗体方面,更具“智能”。


Basically, he says that between 1st gen and 2nd gen:
  1. The design of antigen is different.
  2. The 2nd gen covers all (many more) possible mutation points.
  3. Simply put, 1st gen is like copy/pate trying to emulate the virus specific variant as much as possible. The 2nd gen is to model the essence by removing the superficial, more intelligent.
Another Sinopharm source
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目前,该新冠疫苗在阿联酋已接种近2000名受试者,初步的研究结果显示,该疫苗安全性和耐受性好,可激发人体产生针对原型株和主要变异株高水平的中和抗体,充分体现了重组蛋白疫苗技术路线在疫苗研发中的优势和特点。

Here it says that the 2nd gen vaccine is equally effective in generating antibody against the original and other major variants. This means that they tested on all well known variants and all works the same proving the "broad spectrum"/non variant speciality.

I would make a very rough analog. The 1st gen is like "The animal has black hair, no tail, moving on four legs, it is an ape. But an orangutan is not an ape because the hair is orange." The 2nd gen is like "All animals having no tail and walking on four are apes." I know there are other tailless land animals other than apes, but hope you get the idea.
Will this vaccine be available for emergency use like the first gen vaccines were?
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Will this vaccine be available for emergency use like the first gen vaccines were?
It is in the process of being granted emergency usage in UAE.
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阿联酋卫生与预防部确认,紧急使用该新冠疫苗完全符合法规和法律及审查程序。这是卫生部与卫生当局合作,为加强社区成员对新冠肺炎大流行的预防而付出的艰苦努力的一部分。这一举措反映了阿联酋确保社会成员健康和安全的战略,以及通过一切可能的手段继续抗击疫情的努力。
UAE ministry of "health and prevention" confirmed that emergency usage of this vaccine fully complies with regulations, laws and regulatory protocols.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Could it be a more virulent variation of the original Omicron variant?

42% moderate is very high because I quite often hear more than 98% of cases of the other variants are mild cases although this can be partly due to high vaccination or the way they define the symptoms.
Hard to say either way. The high vaccination today is one thing to be considered. The other question is the breakdown of the other 58%. Are they mostly asymptomatic, light or severe? If it is the first two, it is actually better.
 

SanWenYu

Senior Member
Registered Member
Hard to say either way. The high vaccination today is one thing to be considered. The other question is the breakdown of the other 58%. Are they mostly asymptomatic, light or severe? If it is the first two, it is actually better.
I think the lady from the CDC at Tianjin meant to say "有42%是普通型(或更严重)", i.e. "42% moderate (and severer)". In other words, the other 58% are mild cases.

In mainland China, covid patient severities are defined by the
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as below:
(1)轻型:临床症状轻微,影像学未见肺炎表现。(2)普通型:具有发热、呼吸道等症状,影像学可见肺炎表现,但无呼吸困难或其他并发症。(3)重型:成人符合下列任何一条:①出现气促,呼吸频率≥30次/min;②静息状态下,指氧饱和度≤93%;③动脉血氧分压(PaO2) /吸氧浓度(FiO2) ≤300 mmHg(1 mmHg=0.133 kPa)。高海拔(海拔超过1 000 m)地区应根据以下公式对PaO2/FiO2进行校正:PaO2/FiO2× [大气压(mmHg)/760]。④肺部影像学显示24~48 h内病灶明显进展>50%者按重型管理。(4)危重型:符合以下情况之一者:①出现呼吸衰竭,且需要机械通气;②出现休克;③合并其他器官功能衰竭需ICU监护治疗。
My understanding is that if there is sign of pneumonia (by CT or X-ray), the patient is classified as 普通型 (moderate), or even severer. Patients with no sign of pneumonia are classified as 轻型 (mild).

If the other 58% were cases severer than 普通型, 100% of the cases would have had pneumonia. Then she would not have said "If there are 42% cases having pneumonia, it cannot be equal to a bigger flu."
如果有肺炎占比能达到42%,就不能等同于大号流感。
 
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