Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)


LawLeadsToPeace

Junior Member
Registered Member
Even if mRNA vaccines was 100% reduced risk of infection compared to unvaccinated, there is still a non-zero residual risk of getting infected, however low that might be.

Even if mRNA vaccines was 100% reduced risk of infection, this level of risk reduction lasts only 7-8 months before immunity level drops off, requiring boosters to maintain same efficacy.

So I think focusing on infections is a very big mistake. Outside of short-term clinical trials on a single variant, infections shouldn't be the metric for success in a real world filled with barriers to success like vaccine hesistancy, variants, zero booster shots, and supply shortages.

China would bankrupt itself if it kept on putting out fires everywhere if it only focused on infection. You cannot eliminate infections cases forever unless China wants to be a hermetically sealed country like North Korea. China must learn to live with COVID with high vaccination rate and regular boosters or risk physical isolation and recurring economic difficulties in long-run.
For the economic aspect, not really. As long as China can keep up its domestic consumption of its own products and manufacturing, there won’t be that many problems. Unlike the US, China is much more centralized and can now endure and adapt to the worst of natural disasters due to its culture and sheer industrial and economic strength. If anything, the world needs China more than China needs them.

Also, I heard that Nanjing was one of the major centers of corruption prior to Xi’s anti corruption drive and is known for incompetent officials despite its economic stature. So this outbreak basically was a freak accident and would provide an opportunity for Xi to clean up that place.

In short, from an economic standpoint, they are fine as of now. I believe they will open up once a vaccine is sufficient enough to at least force the virus to abide by a timeline.
 

daifo

Junior Member
Registered Member
11 out of 14 people caught covid at a party using western vaccines. Not many articles/media point this out, but the cdc don't count break-thru unless the person is hospitalize. My understanding is that for much of the Chinese vaccines, they reported if people had syptoms and if people had to be hospitalized.

"State and local health departments, and the CDC, need to do a better job collecting and reporting data on breakthrough infections. The CDC announced in May that it was only going to collect data on breakthrough infections that led to hospitalization or death, which are fortunately rare. But that means that outbreaks like ours will fly under the radar. Any of us could infect others, apparently including other vaccinated people."

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KYli

Major
NYT should have spent more time to report breakthrough cases and oxygen shortage in Florida instead of China delta outbreak.
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Sinopharm vacccine effectiveness against infections decrease to 50.4% against Gamma and Lambda in Peru but its effectiveness to prevent death is still 94%.
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Tyler

Senior Member
Registered Member
Even if mRNA vaccines was 100% reduced risk of infection compared to unvaccinated, there is still a non-zero residual risk of getting infected, however low that might be.

Even if mRNA vaccines was 100% reduced risk of infection, this level of risk reduction lasts only 7-8 months before immunity level drops off, requiring boosters to maintain same efficacy.

So I think focusing on infections is a very big mistake. Outside of short-term clinical trials on a single variant, infections shouldn't be the metric for success in a real world filled with barriers to success like vaccine hesistancy, variants, zero booster shots, and supply shortages.

China would bankrupt itself if it kept on putting out fires everywhere if it only focused on infection. You cannot eliminate infections cases forever unless China wants to be a hermetically sealed country like North Korea. China must learn to live with COVID with high vaccination rate and regular boosters or risk physical isolation and recurring economic difficulties in long-run.
They should really ramp up local Chinese mRNA vaccines which can produces substantially more antibodies than traditional vaccines. Remember that it is not Chinese vs western technology, it is new vs traditional technology.
 

Phead128

Senior Member
We have the Indian variant factory™, but we also have DEER (yes, the animal) is rife with SARS-CoV-2. It's an animal reservoir where the virus can thrive and mutate.

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So the sooner Chinese population realizes COVID won't disappear (thanks to India, and animal host reservoir), the sooner people can get vaccinated, boosters, and move-on. China can't be putting out endless fires because COVID won't disappear. And yes, putting out fires like locking down cities does hurt your tourism industry, reduce GDP growth, and hurt business confidence. China needs to accept the reality that COVID will be with us forever, and best we can do is vaccinate everyone and add boosters, just like the flu.
 

KIENCHIN

Junior Member
Registered Member
We have the Indian variant factory™, but we also have DEER (yes, the animal) is rife with SARS-CoV-2. It's an animal reservoir where the virus can thrive and mutate.

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So the sooner Chinese population realizes COVID won't disappear (thanks to India, and animal host reservoir), the sooner people can get vaccinated, boosters, and move-on. China can't be putting out endless fires because COVID won't disappear. And yes, putting out fires like locking down cities does hurt your tourism industry, reduce GDP growth, and hurt business confidence. China needs to accept the reality that COVID will be with us forever, and best we can do is vaccinate everyone and add boosters, just like the flu.
Looks like Venison is off my menu now. Agreed on the fact that COVID in which ever way it mutatesis now here to stay and getting a vaccine shot would be part of the annual flu shot. Problem is there is still a lot of people out there who are not anti Vaxer’s but think the vaccine does not work.
 

daifo

Junior Member
Registered Member
We have the Indian variant factory™, but we also have DEER (yes, the animal) is rife with SARS-CoV-2. It's an animal reservoir where the virus can thrive and mutate.

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So the sooner Chinese population realizes COVID won't disappear (thanks to India, and animal host reservoir), the sooner people can get vaccinated, boosters, and move-on. China can't be putting out endless fires because COVID won't disappear. And yes, putting out fires like locking down cities does hurt your tourism industry, reduce GDP growth, and hurt business confidence. China needs to accept the reality that COVID will be with us forever, and best we can do is vaccinate everyone and add boosters, just like the flu.


Tourism hasn't fully open between countries yet, it is better to wait and see if their are even more deadly vaccine evading variants being created while the world is getting vacinated. Also, no one really knows what is the long term effects of covid but research is coming out...

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j17wang

Junior Member
Registered Member
Even if mRNA vaccines was 100% reduced risk of infection compared to unvaccinated, there is still a non-zero residual risk of getting infected, however low that might be.

Even if mRNA vaccines was 100% reduced risk of infection, this level of risk reduction lasts only 7-8 months before immunity level drops off, requiring boosters to maintain same efficacy.

So I think focusing on infections is a very big mistake. Outside of short-term clinical trials on a single variant, infections shouldn't be the metric for success in a real world filled with barriers to success like vaccine hesistancy, variants, zero booster shots, and supply shortages.

China would bankrupt itself if it kept on putting out fires everywhere if it only focused on infection. You cannot eliminate infections cases forever unless China wants to be a hermetically sealed country like North Korea. China must learn to live with COVID with high vaccination rate and regular boosters or risk physical isolation and recurring economic difficulties in long-run.

We need to get at least 70% population coverage of vaccines ~roughly 1.1 billion people or 2.1 billion doses (assuming 100 million dose of single-shot cansino) before we should go about relaxing "hard" control methods. Considering we just reached 1.7 billion shots administered that's 400 million to go, or the space of roughly 30 days at current rates. Add to that the 15 days after second booster before immunization kicks in, I expect the government to change messaging to "living with the virus" around mid-September. Keeping up current containment efforts will be alot easier once we reach the 70% immunization rate. Just look at the difference in the delta outbreak between Canada (65% vaccinated) and US (50% vaccinated), its night and day.

China is now in the 7-8th inning, we only need to maintain hard containment for a short while longer. Also by September we should have Walvax (mrna) and SCB2019 (trimer-protein) phase III readouts. Hopefully the booster shots in China can be using the second-generation vs still the inactivated vaccines at that point.
 

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