Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

[voyager1]

But in the dark ages, travel between long distances was both slow and arduous, which played a huge part in helping to limit the spread of these super deadly variants, as the infected would have shown symptoms and either died or were murdered/quarantined before reaching new population centres.

Money quote right here.

These history wanna-be charlatans are often conveniently dont mention that travel was far far too slow in the past which limited the infection rates.

Also.lets not forget that those days the sick people (when an epidemic happened) were shunned from the society and left to die. They killed them, exiled them from their villages, or the village would stop all people from entering due to fear of diseases.

What we are experiencing now is obviously nothing to compare with the past as we have a dramatically better technology but we also have ultra fast travel and far more practises which increases the chances of pandemics (animal farming, mass farms, etc)

 

[LesAdieux]

There is a massive gaping flaw in the logic behind that assumption, which is virus variants.

It is possible, even likely, that India was well on its way to achieving herd immunity to the original viral strain due to gross incompetence in making any meaningful progress in trying to contain its spread, only the sheer number of people infected with the live virus to achieve that ended up incubating their current, apparently much more lethal and dangerous variant (going by the reports of massive unreported excessive deaths that is causing crematoriums to literally start to melt! ).

It is entirely possible that we will see this awful cycle of ‘progress’ towards herd immunity only to spawn fresh new variants that resets the herd immunity clock due to the incubator effect of having vast numbers of people infected with live viruses and the supercharged evolution in the virus that will cause.

Indeed, that was generally the pattern in pre-vaccine ages, where pandemics comes in multiple waves over many years until an equilibrium of sorts is achieved whereby the virus settles into a less deadly form and stay with us forever or morphs into a super deadly variant that wipes out entire communities and kills so fast it doesn’t manage to spread, and thereby also itself.

But in the dark ages, travel between long distances was both slow and arduous, which played a huge part in helping to limit the spread of these super deadly variants, as the infected would have shown symptoms and either died or were murdered/quarantined before reaching new population centres.

Now, with modern travel, a virus will need to cut its incubation and lethality cycle to days or even hours to do that, which is far far less likely.

This is why I hold those experts who glibly point to history and past precedent and expect the virus to just go away by itself with such contempt, as they are indulging in wishful and magical thinking of the worst kind at the worst possible time without fully considering even the most basic of underlying factors to assume things today will follow patterns from centuries ago, when the world was a completely different place.

I have rather limited knowledge on this. but

There is a massive gaping flaw in the logic behind that assumption, which is virus variants.

It is possible, even likely, that India was well on its way to achieving herd immunity to the original viral strain due to gross incompetence in making any meaningful progress in trying to contain its spread, only the sheer number of people infected with the live virus to achieve that ended up incubating their current, apparently much more lethal and dangerous variant (going by the reports of massive unreported excessive deaths that is causing crematoriums to literally start to melt! ).

It is entirely possible that we will see this awful cycle of ‘progress’ towards herd immunity only to spawn fresh new variants that resets the herd immunity clock due to the incubator effect of having vast numbers of people infected with live viruses and the supercharged evolution in the virus that will cause.

Indeed, that was generally the pattern in pre-vaccine ages, where pandemics comes in multiple waves over many years until an equilibrium of sorts is achieved whereby the virus settles into a less deadly form and stay with us forever or morphs into a super deadly variant that wipes out entire communities and kills so fast it doesn’t manage to spread, and thereby also itself.

But in the dark ages, travel between long distances was both slow and arduous, which played a huge part in helping to limit the spread of these super deadly variants, as the infected would have shown symptoms and either died or were murdered/quarantined before reaching new population centres.

Now, with modern travel, a virus will need to cut its incubation and lethality cycle to days or even hours to do that, which is far far less likely.

This is why I hold those experts who glibly point to history and past precedent and expect the virus to just go away by itself with such contempt, as they are indulging in wishful and magical thinking of the worst kind at the worst possible time without fully considering even the most basic of underlying factors to assume things today will follow patterns from centuries ago, when the world was a completely different place.

your worry maybe misplaced. the first wave of the Spanish flu was mild, like a common flu, the second wave was deadly. those who had exposure to the first wave didn't suffer much in the second wave. common flu killed most American indians because they had no exposure to it. a vaccine, say a not very efficacious Chinese one, may still save your life.

 

[caudaceus]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1383870519670280202

WTF. Seriously just bring down the vaccine export control at this point.

 

[voyager1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1383870519670280202

WTF. Seriously just bring down the vaccine export control at this point.

Hopefully China wont accept these "cards" as proof of vaccination if they want to travel to China in the future

 

[Strangelove]

It's only going to get far worse in India.

The test positivity rate is sky high at 16.7% now. That indicates the real number of new infections is far undercounted and the testing system is breaking down.

So within 2 weeks, I expect the number of daily infections in India will be a minimum of 4x higher than today.

By that point, I also expect every single hospital in India to start turning away large numbers of people who should be admitted.

But even the lucky ones admitted to hospital won't have enough oxygen for all the patients.

I reckon Modi will be under intense political pressure in the next 2 months.
And another widespread strict lockdown in India will be on the cards.

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Please get worse...

Even now they maintain such arrogance and delusions that nothing short of total collapse and destruction of their country will wake them up. Their population needs a healthy culling, it's good for them in the long term. And also to destroy western fake news and propaganda about how well they are doing.

Maybe China should start some shit at the border, just to pile up the pressure.

 

[KYli]

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[nugroho]

Because no vaccine can completely assure that there not a single infection. If the virus started spreading in a vaccinated US nothing would happen because they are all vaccinated and there would be an extremely low number of hospitalisations. So these people who might be infected, would also have their vaccination card.

When these people travel to China (if it opens its borders), then this guy could start infecting the locals and it would be a big problem because China wasn't vaccinated.

Now China could start requiring negative tests, quarantines etc, but this wouldn't help much the economy because who wants to be quarantined for 2 weeks to visit China when the US is open and you can just fly there with 0 restrictions?

Yes, no vaccine can completely assure, so, why you said when virus started spreading in vaccinated US nothing would happen?
The most effective ( but not efficient ) way to control the virus is lockdown. If somewhat in future the virus mutated, and no vaccine can overcome it, then China will be saved. If vaccination program all over the world success controling this virus, then China will have no worry to open her border. China is not in totally lockdown, need 2 weeks quarantine to enter,

Hopefully China wont accept these "cards" as proof of vaccination if they want to travel to China in the future

I think China will ignore this card and still quarantine them because till now, a vaccinated person can still get the disease ( no vaccine with 100% shield )

 

[plawolf]

I have rather limited knowledge on this. but

your worry maybe misplaced. the first wave of the Spanish flu was mild, like a common flu, the second wave was deadly. those who had exposure to the first wave didn't suffer much in the second wave. common flu killed most American indians because they had no exposure to it. a vaccine, say a not very efficacious Chinese one, may still save your life.

Does that not prove my point? A relatively mild first wave mutated into the far deadlier subsequent wave(s) due to no vaccination programme or effective quarantine and huge numbers of infected leading to rapid mutation. That’s basically how famous pandemics used to work, a somewhat mild new virus infects massive numbers of people, and through sheer probability, a much deadlier variant emerged that wiped out millions.

Globally we are already past 3m dead officially, the true figure might be many times that due to under reporting and lack of testing. That’s basic pre-vaccine era fatality numbers, although percentage wise it’s much less due to huge population growth, but this disaster ain’t over yet either!

Also massive negative on common flu killing off the native Americans. That’s revisionist whitewashed history.

The massive Native American deaths due to disease was a result of primitive biological warfare waged on them by European settlers who deliverable gave them smallpox infested blankets. Had the natural immunity (or rather lack of it) argument held any merit, you would have seen similar and compatible European settler deaths from the novel microbes they encountered for the first time in the new world, but that’s a different subject entirely.

 

[Xizor]

Please get worse...

Even now they maintain such arrogance and delusions that nothing short of total collapse and destruction of their country will wake them up. Their population needs a healthy culling, it's good for them in the long term. And also to destroy western fake news and propaganda about how well they are doing.

Maybe China should start some shit at the border, just to pile up the pressure.


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Be careful what you wish for. I don't think anyone ought to wish for the destruction of India or any country.
Because to do so will be to become equals to those Indians who cheered when China was suffering from the pandemic initially. The joy in other forums were palpable.

Hopefully, the right lessons are learnt by everyone from this pandemic. I'm not very optimistic about the evolution and mutations that the virus will take on in the vast human populace of the subcontinent.

China isn't out of the woods. The world isn't out of the woods. Containing the virus isn't anymore an achievable goal. Developing better more sophisticated vaccines are the only option.

 

[AndrewS]

Be careful what you wish for. I don't think anyone ought to wish for the destruction of India or any country.
Because to do so will be to become equals to those Indians who cheered when China was suffering from the pandemic initially. The joy in other forums were palpable.

Hopefully, the right lessons are learnt by everyone from this pandemic. I'm not very optimistic about the evolution and mutations that the virus will take on in the vast human populace of the subcontinent.

China isn't out of the woods. The world isn't out of the woods. Containing the virus isn't anymore an achievable goal. Developing better more sophisticated vaccines are the only option.

Yes. It's sad what is happening in India.

Plus I'd actually say that China is out of the woods. They can just continue with what they're doing, and keep cases at nearly zero.
If another country gets fully vaccinated, then their cases will be near zero and it won't be an issue if there is travel between them.

And it's not about developing better and more sophisticated vaccines.

It's about having enough vaccine production capacity to completely blitz a population so cases get to nearly zero.
Then the virus dies out before having enough time to mutate and escape the vaccine.

On that front, you hear announcements from the Chinese companies that they have production capacity in the pipeline for 6+ billion vaccines per year.