It's not 70% of all upcoming projects; there's plenty of games being developed or have been successful that are not souls-like that I showed in previous posts. Also when Chinese devs try new settings like WWII, I remember you complain about them being too corny.
We also don't know what the saturation point is for these types of games as there haven't been a major AA/AAA budget failure yet in this space. Chinese devs use to keep making high budget eastern fantasy MMORPGs which were very successful until the high profile failure of 仙剑世界 and 射雕 MMORPGs, which showed the genre is saturated causing future projects to be cancelled.
I have a feeling the saturation point is higher than many people think. Like you mentioned, there are vast amounts of ancient Chinese TV series being produced every year, which shows huge demand for this setting and the supply of these in Chinese single player experiences is low. If you look at full priced Japanese console games released each year, 40-50% of them are JRPGs. It's possible that the Chinese single player industry can support 40-50% eastern fantasy setting games.
Like others pointed out, the single player retail market has different logic than live service. Players usually complement their live service forever games with single player experiences. Unlike live service, you also don't need mega hits to thrive: JRPG studios like RGG, Gust, Falcom, NIS, Level-5 don't need to sell millions of copies, but just target the right niche.
Just like Japanese players don't get tired of playing different anime-style JRPGs, I believe Chinese players won't get tired switching from Where Winds Meet to a single-player Wuxia-style game. I'm going to predict PB Zero will have blow out sales numbers (>10M units in first quarter)
I used Chinese TV shows as a negative example, because that particular genre of TV shows (historical costume romances) is very much stagnant and it is one reason why China's traditional TV industry has not been successful globally. True, Chinese audiences can support such an industry all by itself, but insulated, self-satisfied companies cannot disrupt or capture global market share, which is important for the further development of the Chinese entertainment industry as a global power house, source of export revenue, and foundation of human culture.
Further more, they are themselves vulnerable to
being disrupted by foreign players, which is what happened during the various Korean Waves in the 2000s, which posed an existential threat to the domestic TV industry until the THAAD incident caused the Chinese government to block them out. It's been a painful process to reform the Chinese TV industry to become more competitive ever since.
The Chinese gaming industry should avoid this trap. Yes, Chinese audiences tend to have more conservative tastes (thus willing to tolerate the same thing over & over again), but these tastes can be cultivated for the better, and it is still a young industry, full of potential. When the Western and Japanese gaming industries were in their infancy, back in the 80s and 90s, it was a time of immense creative power, and laid the foundations for the industry as it exists today. The Chinese gaming industry
can and
should play a similar role in defining the next 30 years of the global gaming industry. It certainly has the resources and the execution ability, so if it does not, then I'd consider it a critical failure.
