Chinese semiconductor thread II

tokenanalyst

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Zhenbao Technology, a supplier of core components for pan-semiconductor equipment, starts listing guidance​

On February 12, the China Securities Regulatory Commission recently disclosed a report on the initial public offering of stocks and listing guidance filing report of Chongqing Zhenbao Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Zhenbao Technology"). On January 31, CITIC Securities and Zhenbao Technology signed a listing guidance agreement.

The controlling shareholder of Zhenbao Technology is Wang Bing, who directly holds 44.33% of the company's shares.
Data show that Chongqing Zhenbao Technology Co., Ltd. is a high-tech enterprise specializing in the research, development, production and sales of core components of pan-semiconductor equipment and advanced ceramic materials. It is committed to providing customers with "China's leading, world-class" semiconductors Parts solution!

The company's business focuses on four major business segments: semiconductor etching machine parts manufacturing, display panel vacuum parts refurbishment and new product manufacturing, semiconductor display and integrated circuit parts cleaning and regeneration services, and functional precision ceramic materials. It is a domestic leader in the manufacturing of high-purity silicon, quartz, ceramic and other equipment core components, as well as the manufacturing of upper and lower electrodes, and plasma coating protection processes. Won the honorary qualifications of national-level specialized and innovative “little giant” enterprise and national-level intellectual property advantage enterprise.

The company adheres to "high-end manufacturing" and independently develops new materials, new processes and new devices; it vigorously promotes "intelligent manufacturing" and gradually introduces intelligent management systems that combine ERP and MES management. It has multiple digital workshops and its products are widely supplied to domestic pan-semiconductors. Industry leading enterprises and world-renowned enterprises.

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tokenanalyst

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Jinghe’s integrated 40nm OLED display driver chip has been taped out and will benefit from the recovery of the end market​


Recently, Jinghe Integration said in a survey by a number of investment institutions that the 40-nanometer OLED display driver chip has been officially taped out, and the development of 28-nanometer products is progressing steadily.
According to the data, Jinghe Integration is mainly engaged in 12-inch wafer foundry business. It already has the technical capabilities of wafer foundry for DDIC, MCU, CIS, E-Tag, Mini LED, PMIC and other process platforms. Its services cover communication products, consumer goods, Different fields such as automobile and industry. At present, the company has become the third largest pure wafer foundry enterprise (excluding foreign-owned enterprises) in mainland China and the third largest 12-inch wafer foundry production capacity.

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tphuang

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Screen Shot 2024-02-12 at 8.21.52 AM.pngScreen Shot 2024-02-12 at 8.22.39 AM.png

Some rumors from this guy. Take it for what you will. I would say this is somewhat believable based on other stuff I know

Ascend 920 will be coming in the next few months and ordered by Alibaba, Baidu & Bytedance (big deal since they basically refused Ascend before)
Kunpeng 930 is already being used on Huawei cloud it looks like. With NUMA link, can achieve 128 core 256 threads

N+2 production large enough for 500k to 1 million Ascend chips (I find that hard to believe)
says limitation to Ascend is actually getting HBM3, which is still not domestically produced

Kirin line, will see 7000 (for low end phones like Enjoy series), 8000, 9000sh & 9000sw

Expect P70 & new PC version of Kirin chips using N+2 process

Calls whatever will come in September for Mate 70 and X6 N+2B (rather than N+3)
Aiming for 50% of market and be #1 PC and pad supplier.

Expect huge numbers for Enjoy series. Kirin 7000 series will be very cheap, it sounds like

Expect TSMC N6 type of performance for SMSC process of this year (that's my guess too)
N5 for 2025 (again, also similar to my expectation, maybe not reach N5 exactly, but get close to that in density)

Says plans to work CFET in 2026 ???? Seems ambitious. I find this really suspicious for obvious reasons
 

Clark Gap

Junior Member
Registered Member
View attachment 125237View attachment 125238

Some rumors from this guy. Take it for what you will. I would say this is somewhat believable based on other stuff I know

Ascend 920 will be coming in the next few months and ordered by Alibaba, Baidu & Bytedance (big deal since they basically refused Ascend before)
Kunpeng 930 is already being used on Huawei cloud it looks like. With NUMA link, can achieve 128 core 256 threads

N+2 production large enough for 500k to 1 million Ascend chips (I find that hard to believe)
says limitation to Ascend is actually getting HBM3, which is still not domestically produced

Kirin line, will see 7000 (for low end phones like Enjoy series), 8000, 9000sh & 9000sw

Expect P70 & new PC version of Kirin chips using N+2 process

Calls whatever will come in September for Mate 70 and X6 N+2B (rather than N+3)
Aiming for 50% of market and be #1 PC and pad supplier.

Expect huge numbers for Enjoy series. Kirin 7000 series will be very cheap, it sounds like

Expect TSMC N6 type of performance for SMSC process of this year (that's my guess too)
N5 for 2025 (again, also similar to my expectation, maybe not reach N5 exactly, but get close to that in density)

Says plans to work CFET in 2026 ???? Seems ambitious. I find this really suspicious for obvious reasons

He delete his own account, so this is really suspicious.
 

measuredingabens

Junior Member
Registered Member
View attachment 125237View attachment 125238

Some rumors from this guy. Take it for what you will. I would say this is somewhat believable based on other stuff I know

Ascend 920 will be coming in the next few months and ordered by Alibaba, Baidu & Bytedance (big deal since they basically refused Ascend before)
Kunpeng 930 is already being used on Huawei cloud it looks like. With NUMA link, can achieve 128 core 256 threads

N+2 production large enough for 500k to 1 million Ascend chips (I find that hard to believe)
says limitation to Ascend is actually getting HBM3, which is still not domestically produced

Kirin line, will see 7000 (for low end phones like Enjoy series), 8000, 9000sh & 9000sw

Expect P70 & new PC version of Kirin chips using N+2 process

Calls whatever will come in September for Mate 70 and X6 N+2B (rather than N+3)
Aiming for 50% of market and be #1 PC and pad supplier.

Expect huge numbers for Enjoy series. Kirin 7000 series will be very cheap, it sounds like

Expect TSMC N6 type of performance for SMSC process of this year (that's my guess too)
N5 for 2025 (again, also similar to my expectation, maybe not reach N5 exactly, but get close to that in density)

Says plans to work CFET in 2026 ???? Seems ambitious. I find this really suspicious for obvious reasons
I remember @olalavn posted a screenshot of a Huawei CFET patent on twitter. Should be this one.
20240212_214445.jpg
@tokenanalyst also posted this paper earlier in the thread, which elaborates on a technique for CFET preparation.
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That said all of this is in the research phase, so who knows when it will reach the fabs for commercialisation.
 

gelgoog

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Registered Member
Recently, Jinghe Integration said in a survey by a number of investment institutions that the 40-nanometer OLED display driver chip has been officially taped out, and the development of 28-nanometer products is progressing steadily.
According to the data, Jinghe Integration is mainly engaged in 12-inch wafer foundry business. It already has the technical capabilities of wafer foundry for DDIC, MCU, CIS, E-Tag, Mini LED, PMIC and other process platforms. Its services cover communication products, consumer goods, Different fields such as automobile and industry. At present, the company has become the third largest pure wafer foundry enterprise (excluding foreign-owned enterprises) in mainland China and the third largest 12-inch wafer foundry production capacity.​
"Jinghe Integration" = Nexchip. The bloodbath in DDICs continues.
 

AndrewS

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Registered Member
View attachment 125237View attachment 125238

Some rumors from this guy. Take it for what you will. I would say this is somewhat believable based on other stuff I know

Ascend 920 will be coming in the next few months and ordered by Alibaba, Baidu & Bytedance (big deal since they basically refused Ascend before)
Kunpeng 930 is already being used on Huawei cloud it looks like. With NUMA link, can achieve 128 core 256 threads

N+2 production large enough for 500k to 1 million Ascend chips (I find that hard to believe)
says limitation to Ascend is actually getting HBM3, which is still not domestically produced

I recall Semianalysis have an estimate that SMIC has enough DUV lithography machines for annual production of:
10 million H100 GPU dies @ 50% yield and 30,000 wafers per month

Nvidia are forecasting sales of 2 million for the H100 in 2024.

So from the production and demand side, 1 million Ascend 920 is entirely reasonable, with an assumption that it is equivalent to the H100.

And if you think about it, most of the demand for N7 and more advanced nodes is from smartphones.
AI inference chips like the H100 and Ascend 920 make up only a small proportion of advanced node demand, so it should be straightforward to start more Ascend 920 wafers instead of smartphone wafers.

And if we go with the Financial Times report that SMIC chips cost 50% more than from TSMC, it still works out as profitable for Huawei/SMIC. Also note that TSMC expects its Arizona plant to produce chips which cost 50% more than in Taiwan, yet there are customers in the US who are willing to pay because this is a national security issue.

So even if somehow this isn't profitable for Huawei/SMIC, we can expect the Chinese government to step in with subsidies.
Due to the tech sanctions imposed by the US, this is now a top priority national security issue.

Previously, Chinese companies resisted government efforts to buy inferior Chinese semiconductors which were more expensive.
But now, companies in China have no choice but to support the buildout of an entirely Chinese world-class technology stack, no matter how long it takes or how much it costs.

---

Plus a separate but related point below.

In 2020, 54% of global semiconductors passed through China. 24% was consumed inside China and another 30% exported in finished products.

With the latest data (2022), it looks like China has become even more important. 31% was consumed in China and another 25-30%? exported in finished products.



Kirin line, will see 7000 (for low end phones like Enjoy series), 8000, 9000sh & 9000sw

Expect P70 & new PC version of Kirin chips using N+2 process

Calls whatever will come in September for Mate 70 and X6 N+2B (rather than N+3)
Aiming for 50% of market and be #1 PC and pad supplier.

Expect huge numbers for Enjoy series. Kirin 7000 series will be very cheap, it sounds like

Expect TSMC N6 type of performance for SMSC process of this year (that's my guess too)
N5 for 2025 (again, also similar to my expectation, maybe not reach N5 exactly, but get close to that in density)

Says plans to work CFET in 2026 ???? Seems ambitious. I find this really suspicious for obvious reasons
 
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