Chinese semiconductor thread II

[henrik]

Yes. Smart investing needs to hedge for the risk of down cycle, especially if there’s in fact a bubble that will lead to some intermittent demand destruction.

As nvidia releases its new RTX Spark laptop, they will need 128GB of dram for each of them.

 

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2081854933972799534

I explained here what all of China's recent AI superNode solutions are about. Essentially, it's all about getting around lack of mature HBM ecosystem & EUV by playing up other components. Think of Tau scaling, how to reduce electron travel time. You do that by reducing data movement distance.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Luanqi Technology showcases its full-stack testing solutions at CFMS​

At the CFMS | MemoryS 2026 Summit in Shenzhen, themed "Navigating Cycles, Unlocking Value," the global storage industry highlighted the transformative impact of AI. AI servers require 8–10 times more storage than traditional servers, making NAND flash memory a core foundation of AI computing power and driving demand for both high performance and large capacity.

Luanqi Technology stood out as a leading domestic Chinese manufacturer, showcasing its independent, full-stack professional storage testing solutions. The company supports mainstream protocols (NVMe, PCIe, UFS) across consumer, enterprise, and industrial levels.​

1. eBird Series: A PCIe Gen6 SSD R&D Testing Platform supporting NVMe 2.0 and cross-platform (Windows/Linux) testing, ideal for design verification to mass production deployment.​
2. Phoenix Series: A high-concurrency mass production and Reliability Demonstration Test (RDT) platform capable of parallel testing for 64 to 256 Devices Under Test (DUTs).​
3. T-Bird Series: A UFS Embedded Storage Test Platform supporting UFS 4.x, 3.1, and 2.2 protocols, with the ability to concurrently test up to 512 devices for smartphones, automotive, and industrial applications.​

Built on independently developed hardware modules, I/O engines, and test frameworks, Luanqi Technology provides end-to-end testing assurance from chip verification to mass production. Its solutions have been widely adopted by leading domestic and international storage, module, controller chip, and server manufacturers, solidifying its market recognition and role in advancing China’s high-end storage testing capabilities.​

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[def333]

The news about semiconductor breakthroughs from SiCarrier/Yuliangsheng is just marketing shills colluding to pump stocks with misleading stories.

 

[tphuang]

This is an EPS bubble. It is the result of Korean semiconductor companies intentionally driving up DRAM prices while cutting production. Now that the number of DRAM companies has solidified into four, if a "DRAM chicken game" begins, the key will be how these four memory companies survive amidst a potential DRAM price crash and deficit performance. The memory industry is a cyclical industry.

take a look at just the AI demand on server side and consumer side. the models are doubling in size every year for the next few years. So the most recent DDR5 pricing was 19k RMB for 64 GB -> that's $85 per 2 GB. Let's say we get to a more reasonable level of $15 per 2 GB. In a few years, CXMT will be up to 7m wafers per year. That is 15834m GB assuming 80% yield & 48mm2 die size for 2GB. If we go by $15 per 2 GB -> $120B in revenue per year.

What is your bearish case for server DRAM? That it will get to $8 per 2GB long term?

CXMT is going to have so much cash to expand its DRAM capacity and the entire Chinese AI supply chain is dependent on CXMT, not Huawei. Huawei uses the same AI supply chain that everyone else uses. Piotech hybrid bonding, SMIC logic die, the huge PCB supply chain, shengyi CCL, JCET for high bandwidth memory.

The most innovative AI stack design right now all require customized DRAM from CXMT.

 

[tphuang]

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An official from the fabless industry remarked, "When inquiring about 3D ICs with Samsung Electronics' foundry, we often hear that 'every customer visiting these days asks about 3D ICs.'" The official added, "Interest is surging rapidly as the demand for differentiated AI chips aligns with this technology."

However, industry insiders agree that the emerging 3D IC market operates under a business structure fundamentally different from the traditional DRAM industry. Specifically, DRAM-based 3D ICs function more like "custom DRAM"—designed to meet specific client needs—distinguishing them from the conventional memory business model of mass-producing standardized products. A semiconductor industry source explained, "3D DRAM should essentially be viewed as custom DRAM. Since each customer requires different memory configurations and stacking methods, the nature of the business differs significantly from mass-producing standard products." The source further analyzed, "The core business model for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix revolves around the mass production of standard DRAM. Consequently, manufacturing custom DRAM tailored to specific clients would likely be difficult to justify in terms of profitability."Industry insiders predict that while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will continue preliminary research into 3D IC technology, they will likely take a cautious approach toward full-scale commercialization. The prevailing view is that although R&D or reviews for new business ventures are feasible, it would be difficult to scale these efforts to the level of a company-wide initiative.

so neither Samsung nor SK Hynix are getting into custom DRAM 3D IC

Facing difficulties entering the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market due to U.S. semiconductor restrictions against China, CXMT is reportedly focusing its efforts on securing 3D IC capabilities as a key next-generation AI memory technology. Analysts suggest the company has adopted a strategy of targeting the custom memory market rather than directly challenging Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the general-purpose DRAM market. A semiconductor industry official noted, "China has already produced multiple 3D DRAM sample chips—ahead of the global market—and we are also conducting several related projects." The official added, "It is highly likely that companies targeting niche markets, such as CXMT or Winbond, will be the ones to shape the market initially."

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Even Qualcomm is working with CXMT on custom 3D DRAM for AI Phones. There is a long list of companies right now following CXMT around for custom 3D DRAM designs because only CXMT is hungry enough for these type of business.

Which means, they will be very expensive DRAMs. That's why CXMT is getting higher ASP on spot market than Samsung and SK.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2081285288048071027

 

[HighGround]

This is an EPS bubble. It is the result of Korean semiconductor companies intentionally driving up DRAM prices while cutting production. Now that the number of DRAM companies has solidified into four, if a "DRAM chicken game" begins, the key will be how these four memory companies survive amidst a potential DRAM price crash and deficit performance. The memory industry is a cyclical industry.

When did they cut production?

 

[tokenanalyst]

The news about semiconductor breakthroughs from SiCarrier/Yuliangsheng is just marketing shills colluding to pump stocks with misleading stories.

SiCarrier and that Yuliangsheng are different companies. Yuliangsheng is in hiring spree so it seems to be legit lithography company.

I think is the contrary, the news are vastly underestimating the lithography situation in China. The production of immersion lithography has been going since 2021 in a 28nm process node, accelerated in 2024 with in a 14nm and think they are closer to 7nm node with domestic immersion lithography. The "mass" production of immersion systems has been happening since a few years ago. They had been iterating the system to get it to work in more advanced nodes.

EUV is bigger deal because I can put my hand on the fire that they already have pilot production lines with domestic EUV systems. There is not other way to explained.

 

[sunnymaxi]

SiCarrier and that Yuliangsheng are different companies. Yuliangsheng is in hiring spree so it seems to be legit lithography company.

I think is the contrary, the news are vastly underestimating the lithography situation in China. The production of immersion lithography has been going since 2021 in a 28nm process node, accelerated in 2024 with in a 14nm and think they are closer to 7nm node with domestic immersion lithography. The "mass" production of immersion systems has been happening since a few years ago. They had been iterating the system to get it to work in more advanced nodes.

EUV is bigger deal because I can put my hand on the fire that they already have pilot production lines with domestic EUV systems. There is not other way to explained.

correct.

at the end result matter. whether from X company or Y company. i literally don't care.

i believe SMEE is still leading from the front and Yuliangsheng is the helping hand. which is a normal thing in this complex development process. and it is SMEE who helped DUV supply chain to establish and grow. we have now multiple components suppliers emerging so it make sense to have more than one company in this sector.

remember, Guowang ordered Five magnetron sputtering coating machines this year. these are enough for 40-50 optics sets for DUV.

 

[tokenanalyst]

There is a lot of information that you never see in the news or in think tank websites. Let suppose you found a government website for the finalization of a project for ultrapure fluid particle control sub-system that says it goes in a immersion lithography machine used in a 14nm process node. That means IMO that they have systems in production for a 28nm process node and they want to move into a more advanced process node and pretty much like ASML that means upgrading the machines. And that also tells that China domestic lithography machines are probably modular so they only have to upgrade the sub-system instead of the entire machine.

Is the same with EUV. The fact that they already moving in pellicles tells me that they have EUV masks that they want to protect from contaminants in some sort of production system that goes beyond the simple pattern lab testing.