Chinese semiconductor thread II

[sunnymaxi]

Yes, but those are not Chinese companies . It's like hyaundai now looking to produce ships in India to lower cost and better compete with china, doesn't means India owns Hyundai (of course they also get benefits like employment, taxes, and sourcing of parts from local suppliers) but the real high value chain and profits are still with the mother company headquarters. Same with apple.production in China, Vietnam, Korea. Doesn't means these countries own apple. So i will count more on real Chinese companies like YMTC and CXMT not foreign companies setting up production facilities in China.

Agreed with your point. i just mentioned Korean memory production plants in mainland China. they have strong presence.

anyway, YMTC is going to be second largest Flash memory entity after combined Korea within two years. their third plant will start production in 2027 and with majority of tools from domestic companies.

 

[meedicx]

Memory is a very cyclical industry. The Chinese analysis I read concludes Korea memory won because Samsung and SK were willing to take losses and expand production during down turns like 2008, which bankrupted European and Japanese competitors.

The lesson for China is to wait for the inevitable memory downturn (unless you think there is an AI super cycle and this will never happen again) and then go all out with subsidies and out-invest incumbents in a brutal war of financial attrition.

 

[tphuang]

Memory is a very cyclical industry. The Chinese analysis I read concludes Korea memory won because Samsung and SK were willing to take losses and expand production during down turns like 2008, which bankrupted European and Japanese competitors.

The lesson for China is to wait for the inevitable memory downturn (unless you think there is an AI super cycle and this will never happen again) and then go all out with subsidies and out-invest incumbents in a brutal war of financial attrition.

this is actually a great cycle for Chinese memory makers.

We are all well aware of the EUVL restriction and the remarkable progress SMIC/Huawei is making in terms of cramping as much transistors using DUVL.
But lets take a moment to tinker with the fact that, here we are debating with Kirin9030 being 100 or 130 MTr/mm2 and we have TSMC shipping right now chips with a Transistor density of 224 MTr/mm2 and prepping to ship 300+ MTr/mm2 chip by next year.

China has a long catch up to do! Hopefully with EUVL breakthrough in next two years they will (out of nowhere) race ahead just like they are doing in NAND and DRAM and other fields like EV, Photovoltaics etc

so I think it's important to have the correct figures before carrying this discussion further

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2000176770700738702

Based on this TSMC way of calculating transistor density. N5 is around 135m, same as 4LPE. N3E is around 160m and N3P is 180m. We don't get to 200m until N2, which ships next year.

Not really sure what your general point is? I think we are trying to understand where this chip is at right now.

If we look at their progress, the techInsight "7nm" chip came out in July of 2022 IIRC and that was a very small ASIC rather than a full featured phone SoC. TechInsight got a hold of this one in Dec 2025. So essentially in a little over 3 years, they went from a fake 7nm (10% worse than TSMC/Samsung) to a fake 5nm (10% worse), which is a 33% improvement in transistor density and 17.4% shrink in critical feature during those 3+ years. That is a worse cadence than TSMC (which was 2+ years I think from N7 to N5), but the latter have the benefit of transitioning to EUV during the progress. But now TSMC has slowed down to 3 year cadence from N3 to N2 (first iPhone using N3 was 2023 and first one to use N2 is 2026).

So if you want to "catch up" and let's say the rumors of risk production this year or next is true, then they could theoretically get the first phone product using EUV process in 2027. Even in a good scenario, they still need to improve their current process for next year's Huawei phone

 

[HighGround]

China has a long catch up to do! Hopefully with EUVL breakthrough in next two years they will (out of nowhere) race ahead just like they are doing in NAND and DRAM and other fields like EV, Photovoltaics etc

You’re right in the sense that China is behind TSMC, but do understand that this is merely the means to an end. The end-goal isn’t to produce the densest silicon. The end-goal is to produce a high performing product, be it smartphone, an EV, or a drone. There are many ways to get there and this is but one facet.

2026 is going to be a big year for advanced packaging capacity I think.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Absolutely beautiful, D.C. stooges are China semiconductor industry best friend. No even the Chinese government have the capabilities to force domestic companies to choose domestic alternatives, they tried for 30 years to push for domestic alternatives. But for D.C. Stooges is like a superpower, they made it in just 5.

 

[manqiangrexue]

I disagree. A country of barely 50million people(that's over 25 times smaller than China. Lol ) with a small landmass and barely any natural resources (unlike the US, China, Russia etc) can't be expected to be dominate and present in all sectors, that's not realistic. It's like expecting a province in china to dominate in every field. Korea for its size and it's little resources has far excelled above their size/weight by a large margin. I can hardly think of other countries of their size who has done better to be honest, very very few if any. It's funny that even in Shipbuilding they are the ones giants like US and India are calling for help in building their ship industry. Same in electronics/auto industry/semi conductors/steel/entertainment industies etc were they are also present. They have done far better than most countries their size. You can't expect more than that from them. They fact that they even dominate critical fields in which countries who are far larger, and with more resources than them compete in is a miracle actually .

You act like Korea had the opportunity to do so, it’s a smaller country with a limited population. While a smaller size allows you to be more agile, the barrier of entry for most high margin industries is high and there’s a limited domestic market. That’s why you have to specialize, you cannot succeed everywhere because of weaker fundamentals in size and scale. Only by doubling down in a few key area, can you hope to create enough of advantage to be dominant.

This is why Singapore focuses on Finance or Taiwan has Semiconductors. At most, South Korea could hope for is be self-sufficient like North Korea.

Despite being similar animals, a cat will never defeat a tiger head on regardless of how disciplined, talented or intelligent it is. However, it can outcompete it when hunting small birds and rodents.

It's not that South Korea specializes in too few areas; I am well aware that a small population cannot be dominant everywhere. It is that if you specialize in something, even one thing, in order for it to be worth it, you need to be self-sufficient. If you cannot make your society self-sufficient at large, efforts should be put there before they are allocated to building specialties. A chain is only as strong as its weakest link so vulnerabilities need to be addressed first and foremost, otherwise your specialities turn into more vulnerabilities if they are built dependent on foreign components/supply chains/technology as their foundation. South Korea may seem to be punching above its weight but it is standing on weak chicken legs that others can collapse, therefore, its punches are no threat and no asset to hard power. South Korea's tech sectors would crumble to sanctions at the foundational science level; they cannot withstand what China overcame. When the question was brought up of whether South Korea can develop nuclear weapons, the president directly ruled it out as a stupid notion because he said the nation would be unable to survive the sanctions. If your nation makes decisions in fear of sanctions, then you are not sovereign. Your existance and health depends on you acting like someone's dog. In that case, what is the purpose of developing anything that you cannot fully control? Nothing given to you or can be revoked is worth having; if South Korea's tech/shipbuilding sectors were impervious to sanction, I would agree with you. But their whole nation lives in fear of what larger countries could do to them even without war, so everything they built on that foundation is pointless. I'd rather be North Korea and fear no outsider; they are a sovereign nation.

And also, to achieve this fragile appearance of success, how much do they pay? They work so hard and their society is so burnt out that men and women hate each other, driven by financial pressure and work competition. So, it's like what I said, they made too many compromises to "succeed" with a fragility and dependence that makes it all just not worth it.

If I were them, I'd ask to become a Chinese province. Then they go around slapping people in the face their thier dicks in their technological strengths and be at ease that the rest of China ensures they need never fear sanctions or retaliation.

 

[Quan8410]

And also, to achieve this fragile appearance of success, how much do they pay? They work so hard and their society is so burnt out that men and women hate each other, driven by financial pressure and work competition.

Sound like China at the moment lol. If South Korea do not work so hard then they cannot go from being the poorest country post-WW2 (their gdp after ww2 is essentially zero compared to 1 trillion of dollar today) to one of the richest country in the world today. They have little resources and already pulled above their weight. If China do not exists, they are the most obvious example of an economic miracle. I know people do not like to acknowledge any country success outside China but their effort deserves a compliment.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Sound like China at the moment lol.

South Korea's working for nothing worth a shit; they're wasting their lives digging into a dead end. China's fighting to become the world's strongest country and get out from the jetwash of the world's strongest country. There's a big difference between dedicating yourself to a big light at the end of the tunnel and working yourself to death in the palm of another man's hand.

If South Korea do not work so hard then they cannot go from being the poorest country post-WW2 (their gdp after ww2 is essentially zero compared to 1 trillion of dollar today) to one of the richest country in the world today. They have little resources and already pulled above their weight. If China do not exists, they are the most obvious example of an economic miracle. I know people do not like to acknowledge any country success outside China but their effort deserves a compliment.

And if they pull an "economic miracle" on foreign foundations, what happens? Japan knows: Plaza Accord. It's all worth nothing if you didn't pull it off by youself but did it standing on other people's shoulders. North Korea deserves many more compliments just for standing on their own 2 legs.

 

[Wrought]

It's not that South Korea specializes in too few areas; I am well aware that a small population cannot be dominant everywhere. It is that if you specialize in something, even one thing, in order for it to be worth it, you need to be self-sufficient. If you cannot make your society self-sufficient at large, efforts should be put there before they are allocated to building specialties. A chain is only as strong as its weakest link so vulnerabilities need to be addressed first and foremost, otherwise your specialities turn into more vulnerabilities if they are built dependent on foreign components/supply chains/technology as their foundation. South Korea may seem to be punching above its weight but it is standing on weak chicken legs that others can collapse, therefore, its punches are no threat and no asset to hard power. South Korea's tech sectors would crumble to sanctions at the foundational science level; they cannot withstand what China overcame. When the question was brought up of whether South Korea can develop nuclear weapons, the president directly ruled it out as a stupid notion because he said the nation would be unable to survive the sanctions. If your nation makes decisions in fear of sanctions, then you are not sovereign. Your existance and health depends on you acting like someone's dog. In that case, what is the purpose of developing anything that you cannot fully control? Nothing given to you or can be revoked is worth having; if South Korea's tech/shipbuilding sectors were impervious to sanction, I would agree with you. But their whole nation lives in fear of what larger countries could do to them even without war, so everything they built on that foundation is pointless. I'd rather be North Korea and fear no outsider; they are a sovereign nation.

And also, to achieve this fragile appearance of success, how much do they pay? They work so hard and their society is so burnt out that men and women hate each other, driven by financial pressure and work competition. So, it's like what I said, they made too many compromises to "succeed" with a fragility and dependence that makes it all just not worth it.

If I were them, I'd ask to become a Chinese province. Then they go around slapping people in the face their thier dicks in their technological strengths and be at ease that the rest of China ensures they need never fear sanctions or retaliation.

You have it completely backwards. The correct path of development is to start with dependence, not self-sufficiency. To depend on FDI and imported tech and hired experts and so forth to integrate yourself into the global value chain. To gain leverage over time by supplying critical inputs, and slowly move up the value chain until you reach the cutting-edge. Only after you've developed yourself out of grinding poverty can you start eliminating dependencies and thereby gain self-sufficiency. Because only then do you have the resources to do it properly, without sacrificing strength. Otherwise your self-sufficiency is worthless because you are so weak that it doesn't matter. To this day, North Korea cannot stand on its own without Chinese help.

And China today still depends on imports to some degree, though far less compared to previous decades. It's not self-sufficiency which guards against sanctions, but leverage. The leverage of retaliation, which exists only and precisely because China is so integrated into the global value chain in the first place.

 

[manqiangrexue]

You have it completely backwards. The correct path of development is to start with dependence, not self-sufficiency. To depend on FDI and imported tech and hired experts and so forth to integrate yourself into the global value chain. To gain leverage over time by supplying critical inputs, and slowly move up the value chain until you reach the cutting-edge. Only after you've developed yourself out of grinding poverty can you start eliminating dependencies and thereby gain self-sufficiency. Because only then do you have the resources to do it properly, without sacrificing strength. Otherwise your self-sufficiency is worthless because you are so weak that it doesn't matter. To this day, North Korea cannot stand on its own without Chinese help.

And China today still depends on imports to some degree, though far less compared to previous decades. It's not self-sufficiency which guards against sanctions, but leverage. The leverage of retaliation, which exists only and precisely because China is so integrated into the global value chain in the first place.

Different countries in different situations have different pathways. China's path cannot be emulated by India, nor Korea, but the 2 Koreas are nearly the same. As a small country that simply needs to defend its sovereignty, self-sufficiency is the way to go, and North Korea showed that. They suffered a lot but it's in a world that is so corrupt with the US at its helm and even then, they held their own morals and didn't bend their backs to anyone. They fought alongside China and the Soviets and even though they cannot withstand the crushing force of all of America's hounds alone, even in the end, North Korea is still sovereign, a partner, not a vassal to either China or Russia while South Korea is America's hapless mutt and punching bag. China's size allows for much greater ambition than simply sovereignty. In order to dominate the world and become the strongest power, China had to enter the lion's den and to do so, it needed the tricks and strategies that we see have become so effective today. Could a small country like South Korea integrate into the Western economy to drain their tech and bring them to their knees while insulating itself from harm in order to climb the power ladder until every enemy is scared of its ascent to the superpower throne? I don't think the potential was ever there.