Chinese semiconductor industry


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superdog

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It doesn't say that the license is cancelled .... If it is it would force China to focus the resources to create similar technology and I have no doubt China would be successful doing it

Remember
* Top supercomputer after The US govt banned Intel to China .. China was in the top using its CPU
* Israel AWACS for China (stopped by the US) ... China developed KJ-2000, etc
* Arm embargo to China since 1989 ... Chinese indigenous weapon system developing so fast and now one of the most advanced
* CNC machine embargo ... you see who produce the most CNC? ..... yes China for about 80%
* Ban of China participation to Galileo ... China developed Baidou, now already global challenging GPS while Galileo still stuck
* Ban of China participation in ISS .... China go ahead with Tiangong 2 and soon Chinese large modular space station
* Etc, etc
* EUV embargo ...... guess what would happen ?
Climbing the lithography tech tree requires decades of intensive research work, reacting after an embargo would be way too late.

The good news is that this has been in China's plans for decades.

The bad news is that the catch up game will still go on for many years, if not decades.

The saving grace is that if the semiconductor embargo intensifies, they will pour much more resources into this and catch up quicker.

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is China's ASML, it has been working on lithography machines since the 10th 5-year plan (2001-2005). If you go to its website you can see its most recent lithography product (SSB600 series) supports ArF light source dry lithography. This was announced in 2016, and machines with similar specification are typically used for making chips with process nodes of 130-65nm.

The SSB600 series was not commercially successful and still depended on some important foreign components. It was more of a research milestone rather than a business one.

The current product being developed by SMEE is said to be the SSB800 series, which is an ArF light source immersed lithography machine. This was funded by the "28nm node immersive lithography machine" topic, under the "02 project" and the 13th 5-year plan (2016-2020). Expected delivery is 2021. It can also be expected that the machine will have less foreign dependency, as local upstream suppliers (Beijing Guowang Optical Tech,
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, Changchun Institute of Optics etc.) are providing key components such as the light source, the optical system, and the "dual wafer stage" design, all of which are sub-topics in the 02 project.

It is important to understand that one generation of lithography machine corresponds to multiple generations of chip process nodes. How far the machine can be pushed also depends on the technical know-how of the foundry. For example, SMIC owns the same model of ASML ArF immersed lithography machines that TSMC used to make 1st gen 7nm chips, but SMIC only just started 14nm production. Getting a great sculpting knife doesn't mean you can immediately become a great sculptor.

We don't know what is the process node limit of the SSB800 series. It is technically in the same generation of ASML's DUV machines that TSMC pushed up to 7nm, but that took the most advanced foundry and a much more mature lithography product line to achieve. My guesstimate is that for the SSB800, 28nm would be a good initial trial target (also required by the national plan), and 10-14nm should be within reach after some adjustment and improvement. 7nm is questionable, I think it depends on how long China will get stuck on DUV.

To go beyond 7nm, it is necessary up a generation and get EUV lithography machines. I heard they've made good progress in EUV light source (which is a key technical challenge), otherwise little is known about the progress of a domestic EUV machine. I don't expect to see it soon, but it is in their plan for sure.

The difficulty to catch up in semiconductor manufactoring must not be underestimated, and China is one player that don't underestimate things. You know, the full name of the 02 project is "The project of manufacturing technology and complete sets of technology for very large scale IC's", but why do people call it the 02 project? Because it is considered the 2nd most important in all of China's 16 long term tech development projects.
 
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ZeEa5KPul

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Great post. Looking forward to the SSB1000 (600 -> 800 -> 1000) EUV machine this decade, hopefully.
The saving grace is that if the semiconductor embargo intensifies, they will pour much more resources into this and catch up quicker.
If China adopts a policy of invalidating ASML's patents and allowing any producer in China to use them without threat of legal action, would that allow catching up quicker?
I heard they've made good progress in EUV light source (which is a key technical challenge), otherwise little is known about the progress of a domestic EUV machine.
Do you have any specifics on this?
but why do people call it the 02 project? Because it is considered the 2nd most important in all of China's 16 long term tech development projects.
What's the 01 project?
 

Wangxi

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U.S. imposes new restrictions on exports to China



(Reuters) - The United States on Monday posted rule changes that impose new restrictions on exports to China, including aircraft components and many items related to semiconductors.

The new rules will require licenses for U.S. companies to sell certain items to military entities, even if they are for civilian use, and do away with a civilian exception that allows certain U.S. technology to be exported without a license, if they are for a non-military entity and use.

The rules were posted for public inspection and will be published in the Federal Register on Tuesday.


One rule will affect purchases by entities such as People’s Liberation Army, which is involved in civilian activities such as hospitals, according to experts.

The other rule is expected to affect items like field programmable gate array integrated circuits, eliminating license exceptions for Chinese importers and Chinese nationals.


The administration also posted a third proposed rule change that would force foreign companies shipping certain American goods to China to seek approval not only from their own governments but from the United States as well.

The actions come as relations between the United States and China have deteriorated amid the new coronavirus outbreak.

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Hendrik_2000

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I really don't understand Beijing They have so much leverage against ASML since the parent company of ASML is Phillip And Phillip is basically a shell company with headquarter in Netherland but outsource everything else to China specially in manufacturing They should make life difficult for Phillip

Why they don't use that leverage since the dutch want to play hardball
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ZeEa5KPul

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I really don't understand Beijing They have so much leverage against ASML since the parent company of ASML is Phillip And Phillip is basically a shell company with headquarter in Netherland but outsource everything else to China specially in manufacturing They should make life difficult for Phillip

Why they don't use that leverage since the dutch want to play hardball
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It's not going to accomplish anything. ASML itself is dependent on American components for its machines and if it agrees to resume sales to China then America could just as easily cut them off, sanction them, etc. We have to face facts: America has the stronger hand for now and it knows it will eventually lose, so it's going to do whatever it can - however futilely - to forestall its loss. What China must do to win is develop these technologies for itself by hook or by crook, everything else is a distraction.
 

Quickie

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I really don't understand Beijing They have so much leverage against ASML since the parent company of ASML is Phillip And Phillip is basically a shell company with headquarter in Netherland but outsource everything else to China specially in manufacturing They should make life difficult for Phillip

Why they don't use that leverage since the dutch want to play hardball
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It's possible the bargain is already being done behind the scene. The Dutch have probably by now been informed by China on how the hardball is going to be played once the deal is canceled. Maybe starting with the trade of simpler equipment like that of lightings?
 

localizer

Senior Member
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It's possible the bargain is already being done behind the scene. The Dutch have probably by now been informed by China on how the hardball is going to be played once the deal is canceled. Maybe starting with the trade of simpler equipment like that of lightings?

No need, China needs to push forward, no need to screw with Europeans.

Maximize trade and innovation.
 
It's possible the bargain is already being done behind the scene. The Dutch have probably by now been informed by China on how the hardball is going to be played once the deal is canceled. Maybe starting with the trade of simpler equipment like that of lightings?
oh so "hardball is going to be played" by China, perhaps they should ask themselves in Brussels why the EU sent about two trillion euros (!!) to China during recent eleven years due to trade imbalance:



plus how many industries are gone from Europe gosh including medical, Europe sure has something to think about! and if nothing changes, Chinese will "hardball" for sure
 

Canuck place

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oh so "hardball is going to be played" by China, perhaps they should ask themselves in Brussels why the EU sent about two trillion euros (!!) to China during recent eleven years due to trade imbalance:



plus how many industries are gone from Europe gosh including medical, Europe sure has something to think about! and if nothing changes, Chinese will "hardball" for sure
Trade imbalance dosen't mean much at all since most of the products are likey made for EU firms to be sold in EU since costs are llower but EU sell products to China and they make a S*** ton of money in China. 450 billion euros of profits in 2919 Alone!

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