Not really. Combine Chapter 84/85/90 exports from China and Japan. Even 84/90 if you want to remove the distortive effects of electronics assembly. China is still larger than Japan has been larger for a few years.Fair enough if that's what you're referring to as scientific metrics. I would consider Japan to have more high technology exports than China though but that's very quickly closing.
Different principles of physics as in the EUV method involves different physics compared to DUV for example. No matter how good China is at DUV lithography, it isn't the equivalent of EUV is what I mean. It's like training very hard and being very good at high jump when you need to compete in a long jump competition. Hence different. The evidence it's different is self apparent in that China has yet no solution to EUV.
It's as simple as bouncing light off mirrors just like a turbofan is as simple as compression air and lighting some fuel with it. Much easier said than understood and even harder to actually do.
@Skywatcher Sir as confirm by @foofy.Huh, the article quotes a SMEE engineer "Our mainstay lithography machines are 90 nanometer models. Our 28 nm and 14 nm models have room for improvement in terms of yield rates," implying that at least a 14nm prototype/tech demonstrator already exists.
Probably double patterning, if I had to guess.@Skywatcher Sir as confirm by @foofy.
According to Havok, 28nm immersion duv machine can do double patterning, will participate in 16nm domestic equipment trial production line, and will be used in big production line this year end.
Sir about the statement above, need your clarification, by using the SMEE 28NM DUVL for the 14nm models means double patterning? or a new kind of DUVL capable of single exposure at 14nm?
@Skywatcher thanks! Sir really value your opinion, Sir we're talking about TSMC sudden change of heart regarding it FABS in Arizona, you think it will proceed, if yes with the anticipated bigger wafer production instead of the original 20,000? From Mr Morris Chang statement there will be an over supply as Intel and Samsung are vying the same project with American funding?Probably double patterning, if I had to guess.
I don't think (AFAIK) that there's any DUVL that can single print a 14nm feature (if there was, the business case of EUVL just became a lot less viable).
TSMC historically gets large government subsidies for foreign fabs (more so than the ones on Taiwan, anyways). I personally doubt if the US federal government and Arizona's state government is going to be willing to roll out the tax break red carpet for all of the rumored five more TSMC fabs, which would run at least into the mid eleven digit figures in USD (assuming those fabs are 5nm or smaller processes, TSMC Arizona currently costs $12 billion)@Skywatcher thanks! Sir really value your opinion, Sir we're talking about TSMC sudden change of heart regarding it FABS in Arizona, you think it will proceed, if yes with the anticipated bigger wafer production instead of the original 20,000? From Mr Morris Chang statement there will be an over supply as Intel and Samsung are vying the same project with American funding?
I would to see more on that thread. If indeed it can do 16nm this year there would alot of discussions on this from alot of other members as well. It won't be just havok one lonely sentence@Skywatcher Sir as confirm by @foofy.
According to Havok, 28nm immersion duv machine can do double patterning, will participate in 16nm domestic equipment trial production line, and will be used in big production line this year end.
Sir about the statement above, need your clarification, by using the SMEE 28NM DUVL for the 14nm models means double patterning? or a new kind of DUVL capable of single exposure at 14nm?
I would imagine that the native 28nm machine production yield will start low, gradually increasing as customers provide inputs, feedback etc.I would to see more on that thread. If indeed it can do 16nm this year there would alot of discussions on this from alot of other members as well. It won't be just havok one lonely sentence
I have followed their discussions for awhile now. There won't be a 28nm machine and 16nm machine at same time because they currently focus on the 28nm , it just got assembled recently and still on verification stage.I would imagine that the native 28nm machine production yield will start low, gradually increasing as customers provide inputs, feedback etc.
After an acceptable yield has been reached then they can move on with double patterning and repeat the same process to increase yields.
They may have a 16nm machine ready but I suppose that their yields are abysmal and it is only used to gather feedback for now.
I am afraid EUV is not the only thing China need to tackle to address the chip vulnerability in a sanction or worst case total decoupling scenario.I don't get this pessimism given that equivalent products more or less already exist, a history of being fairly close to the frontier, reputable reports of SMEE ArFi existing and nearly all scientific metrics showing Chinese scientific capacity > Japanese scientific capacity (and with the Japanese supply chain being able to create it)
Not really. EUV is only used in smartphones and demand side issues would resolve themselves in a total decoupling scenarioI am afraid EUV is not the only thing China need to tackle to address the chip vulnerability in a sanction or worst case total decoupling scenario.
But all of these are supply side challenges. There are also demand side problems. Because China can’t make a competitive SOC for smartphone for a long time, China should try to catch the train started by raspberry pi and now solidified by Apple’s move to linux (variant) on ARM for desk/laptops. If China can consolidate it’s efforts on one systems it has more experience and has better control, it can take advantage of the transition to a newer and lighter system and weaken the US wintel stronghold. Fragmentation creates opportunity for weaker players. And China can use government contracts to legitimately enlist big techs to create laptops for young students with these requirements. As the product matures, expand procurement to all edu, mil, gov, server, etc., at which point, there should be demand and eco-system for general domestic (as people like to use same system they are already familiar with) and even international market demand.
to catch up, China need to strengthen itself, but also weaken the leaders by reducing their market share and profits.