Chinese semiconductor industry

[gelgoog]

@victoon
No it was quite predictable that semiconductor consumption would continue to grow. as for the push for continuously smaller compute devices, it is an historical trend from mainframes, to mini-computers, to micro-computers (PCs), and now smartphones. Smartphones are likely not to be the endpoint either. There are people working on wearable devices like glasses and even embedding chips into clothes. The problem with embedding chips into clothes right now is cost and transistor density. You can't use regular production methods and make it cheap. There are also people working on disposable compute devices by putting chips on top of plastic or paper.

Sure I can understand the Chinese government had other priorities. But at least a decade ago it was quite clear this was a priority as well. A decade would have been more than enough to catch up with the West, but back then they just increased construction of civilian infrastructure and thought they could buy into the market with partial government funds. Well it didn't work all that well. The Chinese government's lack of investment in the tools market in general was a problem, and I was talking about this at least a year before this sanctions game blew up.

 

[victoon]

I don't share the optimism that China can close this vulnerability in 10 years. Chip making is the most complex manufacturing task ever, currently spread out to many large corps in multiple countries. Airplanes and rocks are magnitude easier to make, yet it still took China many decades and significant Russian help to get to China's current middling position. Even though we have it good today, I think we shouldn't forget how tough it was for China and how humble China's recent original was (China GDP in 2000 was 1.2t while India GDP in 2019 was 3t just to remind you what a poor country looks like)

I also value the importance of looking back to learn what we could have done better. But would focus on how past lessons can help us do better in the future. It's easy to criticize how other people could have done better. But time is better spent on identifying the next big challenge for China so that 20 years later we don't say "we should have thought of it" again.

 

[victoon]

Plus, I feel China has done well enough in chip making considering all the constrains. I am not sure how much better China could have done with more investment (plenty of money wasted and lessons learned). These things takes patience and sustained solid work.

 

[Deleted member 15949]

I don't share the optimism that China can close this vulnerability in 10 years. Chip making is the most complex manufacturing task ever, currently spread out to many large corps in multiple countries. Airplanes and rocks are magnitude easier to make, yet it still took China many decades and significant Russian help to get to China's current middling position. Even though we have it good today, I think we shouldn't forget how tough it was for China and how humble China's recent original was (China GDP in 2000 was 1.2t while India GDP in 2019 was 3t just to remind you what a poor country looks like)

I also value the importance of looking back to learn what we could have done better. But would focus on how past lessons can help us do better in the future. It's easy to criticize how other people could have done better. But time is better spent on identifying the next big challenge for China so that 20 years later we don't say "we should have thought of it" again.

I don't get this pessimism given that equivalent products more or less already exist, a history of being fairly close to the frontier, reputable reports of SMEE ArFi existing and nearly all scientific metrics showing Chinese scientific capacity > Japanese scientific capacity (and with the Japanese supply chain being able to create it)

 

[voyager1]

Sure I can understand the Chinese government had other priorities. But at least a decade ago it was quite clear this was a priority as well.

The Chinese were then busy drinking the globalisation kool-aid. Fortunately Xi came in and cleaned house

If being behind in semiconductors was the cost for waking up these people up from their utopia then I consider it worthy.

Remember, for "just" the cost of being some years behind in semiconductors, now the whole Chinese society are aware of their vulnerabilities and are racing ahead to rip out any US IP.

IMO a very good trade off. I am sure that Xi is thankful that "only" the IC industry was needed in order to wake up the society of the US IP dangers

 

[ougoah]

I don't get this pessimism given that equivalent products more or less already exist, a history of being fairly close to the frontier, reputable reports of SMEE ArFi existing and nearly all scientific metrics showing Chinese scientific capacity > Japanese scientific capacity (and with the Japanese supply chain being able to create it)

Unfortunately, EUV uses different principles of physics than other lithography techniques. There is a world of difference between 14nm and 7nm and beyond. Those equivalent products may be silicon based and applying many similar or the same principles but there are enough differences in their manufacture where it can be considered a totally different kind of product.

What scientific metrics are you referring to? There is no way to state Chinese scientific capacity > Japanese scientific capacity. Or the opposite.

 

[Deleted member 15949]

Unfortunately, EUV uses different principles of physics than other lithography techniques. There is a world of difference between 14nm and 7nm and beyond. Those equivalent products may be silicon based and applying many similar or the same principles but there are enough differences in their manufacture where it can be considered a totally different kind of product.

What scientific metrics are you referring to? There is no way to state Chinese scientific capacity > Japanese scientific capacity. Or the opposite.

@victoon mentions "closing this vulnerability" which I interpreted as being able to stand a trade shock, not be on the frontier. Not sure what "different principles of physics" there are. It's still bouncing light off mirrors to slice a wafer.

Scientific metrics: research papers in top journals, citations, WIPO patents, high-technology exports, total R&D spending, etc

 

[voyager1]

I see that some people are buying the whole "China is doomed" story in regards to IC.

No worries, lets first wait for q4 2021 risk production and q1 2022 full production for 28nm machine.

About EUV, i also believe that it is one of the (if not the) most complex machines humans have ever made. However if you follow the news here by some members, @WTAN @foofy @Temstar @Oldschool (I think thats all?), you would know that China has been making rapid progress on this.

No worries guys

 

[Skywatcher]

Japanese becoming Indians...

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LMAO, were the Japanese seriously thinking that Chinese IC would immediately start putting out 5nm chips lol!


Oh no!! Xi is forcing them to get domestic technology instead of crazily believing in globalisation and buying from abroad. Bad Xi

Huh, the article quotes a SMEE engineer "Our mainstay lithography machines are 90 nanometer models. Our 28 nm and 14 nm models have room for improvement in terms of yield rates," implying that at least a 14nm prototype/tech demonstrator already exists.

 

[ougoah]

@victoon mentions "closing this vulnerability" which I interpreted as being able to stand a trade shock, not be on the frontier. Not sure what "different principles of physics" there are. It's still bouncing light off mirrors to slice a wafer.

Scientific metrics: research papers in top journals, citations, WIPO patents, high-technology exports, total R&D spending, etc

Fair enough if that's what you're referring to as scientific metrics. I would consider Japan to have more high technology exports than China though but that's very quickly closing.

Different principles of physics as in the EUV method involves different physics compared to DUV for example. No matter how good China is at DUV lithography, it isn't the equivalent of EUV is what I mean. It's like training very hard and being very good at high jump when you need to compete in a long jump competition. Hence different. The evidence it's different is self apparent in that China has yet no solution to EUV.

It's as simple as bouncing light off mirrors just like a turbofan is as simple as compression air and lighting some fuel with it. Much easier said than understood and even harder to actually do.