Chinese semiconductor industry

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coolieno99

Junior Member
There's a lot of derision here on Intel and how they are going down and will never recover which I think is misplaced.
Intel just announced a 20 billion fab in Ohio and has 100% backing of the US to beat TSMC. From assisting them with cheap loans to leaking Asian fab secrets to them , the US government is determined to see Intel, beat TSMC. We are now even seeing them get priority shipment for the latest ASML lithos.
Intel might have many Indians working there but do not underestimate them.

Again I don't hear people saying Microsoft, Google and very many other fortune 500 tech companies headed by Indians are going down. They are infact thriving.
The reason why so many Indians at those companies is Indian managers hire Indians, basically racial discrimination.
If Indians are so good at programming , Why Indians perform poorly in collegiate programming contest ?

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tygyg1111

Senior Member
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When China was behind in the size of a statistical data, it was the scale that mattered the most. China sucked.

When China becomes the largest in size of the field, it is now all about the per capita average. China is losing.

By the time China will have passed over even in average per capita, that field will become irrelevent and disappear from their talks. China will not win still.
Then the headlines would say "Having fewer skilled AI coders is akshually an advantage to the US system, and here's why" <insert coping BS>
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
When AI was first being talked about as the next big thing, China wasn't even in anyone's picture of the fields needed to put together AI. Someone posted in here a graph of what scientific fields were needed and the top five countries that were the leaders in that field and China wasn't ranked in any of them. Then all of the sudden it was the US and China only in the race for AI. What happened? How did China come from zero to the only competitor to the US practically instantly? It was because the West doesn't know what's going on in China and/or China moves so fast that these declarations are just naïve practically stupid and arrogant to make. No matter what, the West doesn't do its research and just assumes. How do they know what's going on in China when they even say China is secretive in everything?
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
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Can China create a world-beating AI industry?​

Don’t hold your breath​

“South of the Huai river few geese can be seen through the rain and snow.” In classical Chinese this verse is a breakthrough—not in literature but in computing power. The line, composed by an artificial intelligence (ai) language model called Wu Dao 2.0, is indistinguishable in metre and tone from ancient poetry. The lab that built the software, the Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence (baai), challenges visitors to its website to distinguish between Wu Dao and flesh-and-blood 8th-century masters. Anecdotal evidence suggests that it fools most testers.

The system, whose name means “enlightenment” and which can emulate lowlier types of speech, derives its power from a neural network with 1.75trn variables and other inputs. gpt-3, a similar model built a year earlier by a team of researchers in San Francisco and deemed impressive at the time, considered just 175bn parameters. As such Wu Dao represents a leap in this type of machine learning, which tries to emulate the workings of the human brain. That delights fans of classical literature—but not as much as it does the Communist authorities in Beijing, which have put ai at the heart of China’s technological and economic master plan first set out in 2017. It spooks Western governments, which worry about ai’s less benign applications in areas like surveillance and warfighting. And it intrigues investors, who spy a huge business opportunity.

On the face of it, the plan is off to a good start. The logistics arm of jd.com, an e-commerce group, operates one of the world’s most advanced automated warehouses near Shanghai. In May Baidu, China’s search giant, launched driverless taxis in Beijing. SenseTime’s “smart city” ai models—urban surveillance cameras that track everything from traffic accidents to illegally parked cars—have been deployed in more than 100 cities in China and overseas. China has been deploying more ai-assisted industrial robots than any other country. And in 2020 it surpassed America in terms of journal citations in the field.

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To read further click on the non paywall source. Thoughts, lads?

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Yeah the same three stages of Western media over China technological development. Underestimate-Estimate-Panic.
Usually the people who write these articles are financial analysts, who don't work in the industry they write about or don't even understand the concepts they are writing about.
 

caudaceus

Senior Member
Registered Member
The Economist is awful, but it is true that only 1 in 10 top tier researchers in AI works in China, even though a third of them come from China. And overall, over half of top-tier researchers don't work in their home country. The US is great at leeching off top tier researchers from other countries. For China it's an issue of attracting top tier talent who may not be Chinese to come and work in China. Covid is certainly making things worse.
I wrote this before but Chinese AI still heavily focus on the downstream/applied parts (Computer Vision, NLP, recommender system) instead of fundamentals (system, network structure, new training algorithm). A friend doing graduate works in AI said that it's about focus on the grant in which China heavily focus on Computer Vision.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
@Tyler Bro Repost to the semiconductor thread so we can discuss and not deviate, sorry I can't find the list (all 16 of them) BUT I have here an excerpt from our esteem member @superdog from his post 2 years ago (all his prediction is accurate to the tee, so Bro I hope you post more...lol) and an add bonus a mainland article about the 02 project.

antiterror13 said:
It doesn't say that the license is cancelled .... If it is it would force China to focus the resources to create similar technology and I have no doubt China would be successful doing it

Remember
* Top supercomputer after The US govt banned Intel to China .. China was in the top using its CPU
* Israel AWACS for China (stopped by the US) ... China developed KJ-2000, etc
* Arm embargo to China since 1989 ... Chinese indigenous weapon system developing so fast and now one of the most advanced
* CNC machine embargo ... you see who produce the most CNC? ..... yes China for about 80%
* Ban of China participation to Galileo ... China developed Baidou, now already global challenging GPS while Galileo still stuck
* Ban of China participation in ISS .... China go ahead with Tiangong 2 and soon Chinese large modular space station
* Etc, etc
* EUV embargo ...... guess what would happen ?
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Climbing the lithography tech tree requires decades of intensive research work, reacting after an embargo would be way too late.

The good news is that this has been in China's plans for decades.

The bad news is that the catch up game will still go on for many years, if not decades.

The saving grace is that if the semiconductor embargo intensifies, they will pour much more resources into this and catch up quicker.

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is China's ASML, it has been working on lithography machines since the 10th 5-year plan (2001-2005). If you go to its website you can see its most recent lithography product (SSB600 series) supports ArF light source dry lithography. This was announced in 2016, and machines with similar specification are typically used for making chips with process nodes of 130-65nm.

The SSB600 series was not commercially successful and still depended on some important foreign components. It was more of a research milestone rather than a business one.

The current product being developed by SMEE is said to be the SSB800 series, which is an ArF light source immersed lithography machine. This was funded by the "28nm node immersive lithography machine" topic, under the "02 project" and the 13th 5-year plan (2016-2020). Expected delivery is 2021. It can also be expected that the machine will have less foreign dependency, as local upstream suppliers (Beijing Guowang Optical Tech,
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, Changchun Institute of Optics etc.) are providing key components such as the light source, the optical system, and the "dual wafer stage" design, all of which are sub-topics in the 02 project.

It is important to understand that one generation of lithography machine corresponds to multiple generations of chip process nodes. How far the machine can be pushed also depends on the technical know-how of the foundry. For example, SMIC owns the same model of ASML ArF immersed lithography machines that TSMC used to make 1st gen 7nm chips, but SMIC only just started 14nm production. Getting a great sculpting knife doesn't mean you can immediately become a great sculptor.

We don't know what is the process node limit of the SSB800 series. It is technically in the same generation of ASML's DUV machines that TSMC pushed up to 7nm, but that took the most advanced foundry and a much more mature lithography product line to achieve. My guesstimate is that for the SSB800, 28nm would be a good initial trial target (also required by the national plan), and 10-14nm should be within reach after some adjustment and improvement. 7nm is questionable, I think it depends on how long China will get stuck on DUV.

To go beyond 7nm, it is necessary up a generation and get EUV lithography machines. I heard they've made good progress in EUV light source (which is a key technical challenge), otherwise little is known about the progress of a domestic EUV machine. I don't expect to see it soon, but it is in their plan for sure.

The difficulty to catch up in semiconductor manufactoring must not be underestimated, and China is one player that don't underestimate things. You know, the full name of the 02 project is "The project of manufacturing technology and complete sets of technology for very large scale IC's", but why do people call it the 02 project? Because it is considered the 2nd most important in all of China's 16 long term tech development projects.

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To establish a complete domestic chip industry chain, it must have its own light source and lens. Therefore, the 02 special project also established a ...

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Hyper

Junior Member
Registered Member
Remember
* Top supercomputer after The US govt banned Intel to China .. China was in the top using its CPU
* Israel AWACS for China (stopped by the US) ... China developed KJ-2000, etc
* Arm embargo to China since 1989 ... Chinese indigenous weapon system developing so fast and now one of the most advanced
* CNC machine embargo ... you see who produce the most CNC? ..... yes China for about 80%
* Ban of China participation to Galileo ... China developed Baidou, now already global challenging GPS while Galileo still stuck
* Ban of China participation in ISS .... China go ahead with Tiangong 2 and soon Chinese large modular space station
* Etc, etc
* EUV embargo ...... guess what would happen ?
I would like to know the source for cnc machines. As far as I know the Japanese and the Europeans are still the market leaders in both market share and performance.
 
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