Chinese Internal Politics

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Wouldn't Xi be over 70 (and past the age limit) by the time his (supposed) 3rd term ends?

Also, Hu vs Ding - which one do you guys think would succeed Xi as the next CPC SecGen, President of China and Chair of CMC? And why?
We'll see if Xi himself respects age limits. It'll be a critical measure of his accumulated political capital. I think he should retire after 3 terms and let Li retire now, but this is just a possibility of how he'd keep Li on.

For next paramount leader I'd say neither Hu vs. Ding. Hu is theoretically the senior. He has 2 terms in Politburo central government, significant experience with poverty alleviation and internal security in Tibet/Inner Mongolia and experience doing a scale model of governing "mini China" in Guangdong. Theoretically, he is the more qualified. However, he is a vice premier, which puts him on the premier track, as all former premiers have been vice premiers. There's no other vice premier young enough to take the Premier title. Basically, Hu has the right experience for President, but he picked the Premier path.

Ding is a dark horse for president. He is a 1 term Politburo member with no regional leadership experience. If he was a regular candidate for President, the correct path would be assigning him to a regional leadership when he is in central committee, then a major regional leadership in regular Politburo, then finally a central government role, either State Councilor, Vice Premier or Vice President, for Politburo term 2. Typically those with only central government experience run administration, so he'd be more of a Li Zhanshu or Wang Huning.

So right now, by precedent it's neither, but between the 2, Hu has a bigger shot.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
For next paramount leader I'd say neither Hu vs. Ding. Hu is theoretically the senior. He has 2 terms in Politburo central government, significant experience with poverty alleviation and internal security in Tibet/Inner Mongolia and experience doing a scale model of governing "mini China" in Guangdong. Theoretically, he is the more qualified. However, he is a vice premier, which puts him on the premier track, as all former premiers have been vice premiers. There's no other vice premier young enough to take the Premier title. Basically, Hu has the right experience for President, but he picked the Premier path.

Ding is a dark horse for president. He is a 1 term Politburo member with no regional leadership experience. If he was a regular candidate for President, the correct path would be assigning him to a regional leadership when he is in central committee, then a major regional leadership in regular Politburo, then finally a central government role, either State Councilor, Vice Premier or Vice President, for Politburo term 2. Typically those with only central government experience run administration, so he'd be more of a Li Zhanshu or Wang Huning.

So right now, by precedent it's neither, but between the 2, Hu has a bigger shot.
Therefore, if neither Hu nor Ding looks viable for the precidency/chairmanship, who do you think would be the most promising and suitable to receive the leadership baton from Xi?

And how is that guy's current status and favorability among the Politburo and rest of leadership in China?
 
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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Therefore, if neither Hu nor Ding is viable for the precidency/chairmanship, who do you think would be the most promising and suitable to receive the leadership baton from Xi?

And how is that guy's current status and favorability among the Politburo and rest of leadership in China?
Here's how I think it'll turn out for next PBSC:

Ding does his Politburo term 2. He isn't ready for a major PBSC role yet, if he is given a PBSC seat it'll be the smallest one as the senior vice premier. He will be elevated to vice premier regardless, but probably not the senior vice premier role. There is precedent for Premiers with no regional leadership experience: Wen Jiabao. There is no precedent for president without regional leadership and would be a bad idea.

Hu does 1 term as the next Premier. In this role he will likely be less powerful than Li was, since Li had an independent power base and equal experience/political capital as Xi. Hu meanwhile has less political capital. However, after Xi retires, Hu takes the presidency as the most experienced candidate at his age. He was born in 1963, so he could have the capability to serve 3 terms - 1 as premier 2 as president. At this point, Ding can be elevated to Premier, as he would have the necessary vice premier experience.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Here's how I think it'll turn out for next PBSC:

Ding does his Politburo term 2. He isn't ready for a major PBSC role yet, if he is given a PBSC seat it'll be the smallest one as the senior vice premier. He will be elevated to vice premier regardless, but probably not the senior vice premier role. There is precedent for Premiers with no regional leadership experience: Wen Jiabao. There is no precedent for president without regional leadership and would be a bad idea.

Hu does 1 term as the next Premier. In this role he will likely be less powerful than Li was, since Li had an independent power base and equal experience/political capital as Xi. Hu meanwhile has less political capital. However, after Xi retires, Hu takes the presidency as the most experienced candidate at his age. He was born in 1963, so he could have the capability to serve 3 terms - 1 as premier 2 as president. At this point, Ding can be elevated to Premier, as he would have the necessary vice premier experience.
Understood. Much thanks!

On the other hand, how would the (reinstated) position as the Chairman of the CPC be different from that of the SecGen of the CPC? And how would that affect other key positions that Xi is holding right now, i.e. President of China and Chairman of CMC?
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Understood. Much thanks!

On the other hand, how would the (reinstated) position as the Chairman of the CPC be different from that of the SecGen of the CPC? And how would that affect other key positions that Xi is holding right now, i.e. President of China and Chairman of CMC?
Chairman is the correct title to also lead CMC and presidency like Mao. Zhao Ziyang was SecGen but not CMC chair nor president. Chairman was abolished because Mao was too powerful, so if Xi takes the Chairman title that means he has exceeded Deng Xiaoping in political capital.
 

SanWenYu

Senior Member
Registered Member
Cross posting my take on Hu Chunhua becoming the next PM: China News Thread

Could Hu Chunhua be a deal between Xi and Hu Jintao? In addition to being younger than all the other politburo members, Hu Chunhua has almost the perfect experience for premier, including Xizang (for experience in ethnics and border affairs), Hebei and Guangdong (industrialization, including both the rusty heavy industries and the shiny manufacturing sectors, and also issues with dyfunct industry zones), Neimenggu (for ethnics, agriculture, and border), and vice premier. The only shorcoming of Hu is that his tenure in Hubei last only one year.

Another choice could be Chen Min'er (LOL, his given name could be mistaken as "miner" in English). Born in 1960, has experience in Zhejiang (industrialization), Guizhou (agriculture and ethnics) and Chongqing (industrialization and poverty alleviation). But he lacks the crucial experience in northen provinces (for dyfunct industry zones) and those on the country borders.

He Lifeng is not even in the politburo right now. It will be too big a leap for him to become a standing member of the politburo and take the premiership. To me, his resume also does not look as good as Hu and Chen.

I'd rule out Ding for PM because he does not have the diverse experience on the level of provincial leaders or ministers which is crucial for contending PM or SecGen. His current position as the "chief butler of CPC (中央办公厅主任兼国家主席办公室主任,中央和国家机关工委书记)" also makes him depending on Xi to stay in power. After Xi, very likely he will also need to retire regardless of his age at the time.

In addition to being a Youth League faction (团派), Hu's age also makes him unlikely to succeed Xi. He will be 70 after 2 terms of PM.

If Xi can take Taiwan successfully in his 3rd term, either he will stay for his 4th (and the last) term, or he will retire with all the glories and pass the crown to the person of his own choice.

If Xi does not have the opportunity to take Taiwain before 2027, he will probably retire. In this case, the next SecGen will likely be someone who is picked by all the PBSC members. This person will be at least 15 years younger than Xi to take the unfinished job from Xi.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Cross posting my take on Hu Chunhua becoming the next PM: China News Thread



I'd rule out Ding for PM because he does not have the diverse experience on the level of provincial leaders or ministers which is crucial for contending PM or SecGen. His current position as the "chief butler of CPC (中央办公厅主任兼国家主席办公室主任,中央和国家机关工委书记)" also makes him depending on Xi to stay in power. After Xi, very likely he will also need to retire regardless of his age at the time.

In addition to being a Youth League faction (团派), Hu's age also makes him unlikely to succeed Xi. He will be 70 after 2 terms of PM.

If Xi can take Taiwan successfully in his 3rd term, either he will stay for his 4th (and the last) term, or he will retire with all the glories and pass the crown to the person of his own choice.

If Xi does not have the opportunity to take Taiwain before 2027, he will probably retire. In this case, the next SecGen will likely be someone who is picked by all the PBSC members. This person will be at least 15 years younger than Xi to take the unfinished job from Xi.
Hu Chunhua is definitely a shoe in for premier. However if Xi retires after 2027, then Hu will be the senior leader in the PBSC with the most political capital. Allowing a junior to leapfrog him as president would be unprecedented and unlikely (has to secure more support than a sitting Premier) unless a black horse event like liberating Taiwan occurs and Xi can designate successor at will or stay in office.
 

crash8pilot

Junior Member
Registered Member
Xi and Li Keqiang belong to rivaling factions. If Xi had his way at the beginning of the 19th Party Congress, Li would've been removed from his post. As a result Xi worked around Li where almost all of the State Council's functions are exercised by Offices and Leading Groups at the Central Committee level. Both Li and Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, who also belongs in the same faction, have been relegated to ceremonial duties and have limited to no say in formation of policy. For example Hu is 3rd ranked Vice Premier on paper and out ranks Liu He, who is 4th ranked Vice Premier. However in reality Liu has a significantly larger portfolio than Hu does, as he leads the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission... In essence Liu has been acting as Xi's finance minister, head trade representative, and economic architect. That is very much the reason all these Western think tanks come up with far fetched wet dream publications about how Li-Hu could lead a coup against Xi. As such it really doesn't matter who becomes Premier in the 20th Party Congress, because the State Council has seemingly become an empty shell (as in they're more involved with policy execution rather than it's formation) under Xi. Hu could very much succeed Li as Premier at the end of this year, but he'd only hold a title with limited to no power. With the Politburo and Central Committee heavily stacked with Xi's allies, Li or Hu would see almost 0 chance of occupying the top job.

Moreover, there is historical precedence from the 15th Party Congress where an out of favor Premier, Li Peng, who was age eligible to stay on the Standing Committee manages to keep the number 2 position whilst taking on a "demoted" post (Chairman of the National People's Congress). Zhu Rongji would become Premier whilst becoming 3rd ranked member on the Standing Committee. Although I'm leaning towards Li stepping down from the Standing Committee, I could Xi keeping him on and making him Chairman of the NPC as a sign of gratitude to Li for not outwardly challenging his authority.

While Ding Xuexiang does not have any direct governance experience, he has been Xi's de facto Chief of Staff - he knows the ins-and-outs of the Party and the ongoings of the country. I could see him replicating the career path of Zeng Qinghong, who was Jiang Jemin's right hand man. When Jiang rose to power, Zeng (who also had no experience governing a province or municipality) was placed on the Politburo as Organization Department Head so that Zeng would promote members from Jiang's faction into leading regional and central posts to undermine Hu Jintao down the road. When Hu came to power, Zeng made the jump to the Standing Committee as Central Secretariat and Vice President. Jiang may not have been Paramount Leader any more, but his interests were represented by Zeng. As such I could see Ding becoming Head of the Organization Department to strengthen Xi's power base, and subsequently make the step up to Central Secretariat in the 21st Party Congress to secure Xi's legacy.

I'd also have my eyes on Chen Min'er, who is currently Provincial Party Secretary of Chongqing. Prior to it being clear that Xi would get a third term, Chen was linked as his successor. Moreover before moving to Chongqing, Chen was Party Secretary of Guizhou where Xi has a large power base (as in many people in Xi's faction rose through the ranks via Guizhou). Chen has no experience in the State Council and wouldn't be a good fit at all as Premier or Vice Premier, but I could see him making the jump from the Politburo to the Standing Committee in the 20th Party Congress as Central Secretariat. He would then be in a position to act as an "emergency successor" should Xi have to step down for whatever reason.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Xi and Li Keqiang belong to rivaling factions. If Xi had his way at the beginning of the 19th Party Congress, Li would've been removed from his post. As a result Xi worked around Li where almost all of the State Council's functions are exercised by Offices and Leading Groups at the Central Committee level. Both Li and Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, who also belongs in the same faction, have been relegated to ceremonial duties and have limited to no say in formation of policy. For example Hu is 3rd ranked Vice Premier on paper and out ranks Liu He, who is 4th ranked Vice Premier. However in reality Liu has a significantly larger portfolio than Hu does, as he leads the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission... In essence Liu has been acting as Xi's finance minister, head trade representative, and economic architect. That is very much the reason all these Western think tanks come up with far fetched wet dream publications about how Li-Hu could lead a coup against Xi. As such it really doesn't matter who becomes Premier in the 20th Party Congress, because the State Council has seemingly become an empty shell (as in they're more involved with policy execution rather than it's formation) under Xi. Hu could very much succeed Li as Premier at the end of this year, but he'd only hold a title with limited to no power. With the Politburo and Central Committee heavily stacked with Xi's allies, Li or Hu would see almost 0 chance of occupying the top job.

Moreover, there is historical precedence from the 15th Party Congress where an out of favor Premier, Li Peng, who was age eligible to stay on the Standing Committee manages to keep the number 2 position whilst taking on a "demoted" post (Chairman of the National People's Congress). Zhu Rongji would become Premier whilst becoming 3rd ranked member on the Standing Committee. Although I'm leaning towards Li stepping down from the Standing Committee, I could Xi keeping him on and making him Chairman of the NPC as a sign of gratitude to Li for not outwardly challenging his authority.

While Ding Xuexiang does not have any direct governance experience, he has been Xi's de facto Chief of Staff - he knows the ins-and-outs of the Party and the ongoings of the country. I could see him replicating the career path of Zeng Qinghong, who was Jiang Jemin's right hand man. When Jiang rose to power, Zeng (who also had no experience governing a province or municipality) was placed on the Politburo as Organization Department Head so that Zeng would promote members from Jiang's faction into leading regional and central posts to undermine Hu Jintao down the road. When Hu came to power, Zeng made the jump to the Standing Committee as Central Secretariat and Vice President. Jiang may not have been Paramount Leader any more, but his interests were represented by Zeng. As such I could see Ding becoming Head of the Organization Department to strengthen Xi's power base, and subsequently make the step up to Central Secretariat in the 21st Party Congress to secure Xi's legacy.

I'd also have my eyes on Chen Min'er, who is currently Provincial Party Secretary of Chongqing. Prior to it being clear that Xi would get a third term, Chen was linked as his successor. Moreover before moving to Chongqing, Chen was Party Secretary of Guizhou where Xi has a large power base (as in many people in Xi's faction rose through the ranks via Guizhou). Chen has no experience in the State Council and wouldn't be a good fit at all as Premier or Vice Premier, but I could see him making the jump from the Politburo to the Standing Committee in the 20th Party Congress as Central Secretariat. He would then be in a position to act as an "emergency successor" should Xi have to step down for whatever reason.
Do you think factionalism is still strong? I think Jiang and Hu had to resort to factionalism because they were not strong leaders. Xi is a strong leader with substantial political capital so people gravitate towards him to form his own faction of followers.

Liu He is an exception. He is the personal friend of Xi, so it is expected that he'll have significantly more responsibility. Hu is junior to Sun Chunlan too, but has a bigger portfolio.

I agree that Chen is one to watch. He checks all the boxes of regional leadership. He is definitely heading for central government this year for his 2nd Politburo term to set him up for PBSC. If he was given a direct PBSC seat though, then he would be the obvious Xi successor.
 
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