News, discussion and credible rumors about China's internal politics.
Chinese Internal Politics
- Thread starter FairAndUnbiased
- Start date
Facts as of AUG 2022:
A. 19th Politburo.
1. Xi Jinping - SecGen, President, CMC chair
2. Li Keqiang - Premier
3. Li Zhanshu - NPCSC chair
4. Wang Yang - CPPCC chair
5. Wang Huning - Secretary of Central Secretariat
6. Zhao Leji - Secretary of CDI
7. Han Zheng - 1st Vice Premier
B.
Members of age to enter PBSC with 2 terms remaining (age < 62 as of 2022):
1. Ding Xuexiang, born 1962
2. Hu Chunhua, born 1963
3. Chen Min'er, born 1960
Members of age to enter PBSC with 1 terms remaining (age < 67 as of 2022):
1. Li Qiang, born 1959
2. Zhao Leji, born 1957
3. Huang Kunming, born 1956
4. Li Hongzhong, born 1956
5. Li Xi, born 1956
C. Major regional leaderships
1. Beijing: Cai Qi
2. Chongqing: Chen Min'er
3. Guangdong: Li Xi
4. Shanghai: Li Qiang
5. Tibet: Wang Junzheng
6. Xinjiang: Ma Xingrui
7. Inner Mongolia: Sun Shaocheng
A. 19th Politburo.
1. Xi Jinping - SecGen, President, CMC chair
2. Li Keqiang - Premier
3. Li Zhanshu - NPCSC chair
4. Wang Yang - CPPCC chair
5. Wang Huning - Secretary of Central Secretariat
6. Zhao Leji - Secretary of CDI
7. Han Zheng - 1st Vice Premier
B.
Members of age to enter PBSC with 2 terms remaining (age < 62 as of 2022):
1. Ding Xuexiang, born 1962
2. Hu Chunhua, born 1963
3. Chen Min'er, born 1960
Members of age to enter PBSC with 1 terms remaining (age < 67 as of 2022):
1. Li Qiang, born 1959
2. Zhao Leji, born 1957
3. Huang Kunming, born 1956
4. Li Hongzhong, born 1956
5. Li Xi, born 1956
C. Major regional leaderships
1. Beijing: Cai Qi
2. Chongqing: Chen Min'er
3. Guangdong: Li Xi
4. Shanghai: Li Qiang
5. Tibet: Wang Junzheng
6. Xinjiang: Ma Xingrui
7. Inner Mongolia: Sun Shaocheng
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Some predictions that I think wouldn't be too controversial:
1. Li Keqiang retires. He is legally prohibited from 3rd term as Premier, he can't rise if Xi stays (and Xi probably will stay) and it would be an disgrace to downgrade himself to a lower office just to stay in the PBSC. He has nothing to prove anymore as #2 in all of China, his policies are mostly successes, might as well retire on a high note.
2. Hu Chunhua enters PBSC. I would be incredibly surprised if he did not as he is a 2 term central government Politburo member. Unlike regional leaders in the Politburo, 2 term Politburo in the central government is typically a precursor to PBSC membership.
1. Li Keqiang retires. He is legally prohibited from 3rd term as Premier, he can't rise if Xi stays (and Xi probably will stay) and it would be an disgrace to downgrade himself to a lower office just to stay in the PBSC. He has nothing to prove anymore as #2 in all of China, his policies are mostly successes, might as well retire on a high note.
2. Hu Chunhua enters PBSC. I would be incredibly surprised if he did not as he is a 2 term central government Politburo member. Unlike regional leaders in the Politburo, 2 term Politburo in the central government is typically a precursor to PBSC membership.
About Hu Chunhua, wiki page wrote when the contamination milk scandal broke out in Hebei but Hu is unaffected because he close with Hu Jintao. Is that true?
I wouldn't know anything about that, but even the manager of Sanlu, Tian Wenhua who was sentenced to "life in prison", is about to be released.
Looks to me like the scandal actually has very limited political fallout to top leadership.
by this point, they are releasing her simply to avoid the hassle of handling her corpse after she dies of old age
Thanks for starting this thread!
The SCMP resources are better than the western media junk
e.g.,
One thing I thought about: if Xi wants to keep Li around for continuity, Li is still within retirement age. But Li would be disgraced if he had to take a lower rank, but the only thing higher than Premier is GenSec.
The possibility to keep Li on without disgracing him would be to have Xi take Mao's old rank of Chairman of CPC, Lin becomes SecGen, and Premier becomes rank 3 office.
Some implications would be that Xi becomes officially the most important leader since Mao, there is consensus on the Xi Li team, and there would be 0 vice premiers in the PBSC, making it even more exclusive and high ranked. It would also mean that Xi is likely to pursue a 4th term.
The possibility to keep Li on without disgracing him would be to have Xi take Mao's old rank of Chairman of CPC, Lin becomes SecGen, and Premier becomes rank 3 office.
Some implications would be that Xi becomes officially the most important leader since Mao, there is consensus on the Xi Li team, and there would be 0 vice premiers in the PBSC, making it even more exclusive and high ranked. It would also mean that Xi is likely to pursue a 4th term.
Wouldn't Xi be over 70 (and past the age limit) by the time his (supposed) 3rd term ends?
Also, Hu vs Ding - which one do you guys think would succeed Xi as the next CPC SecGen, President of China and Chair of CMC? And why?