Chinese Hypersonic Developments (HGVs/HCMs)


Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member

Time for a Quiz.

This is a picture of the proposed OPIR (Overhead Persistent Infrared) system.

Can you spot the BS in this marketing slide ?

Northrop Grumman Completes Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor  Critical Design Review | Northrop Grumman



Do you see those clouds that are conveniently placed away from the launch site?

That's because Infrared sensors are horrible at seeing through water vapor.

So what happens when the launch takes place under cloud cover?

You mentioned the term "vaporware". Well, this is it, literally.
 

Overbom

Senior Member
Registered Member
Time for a Quiz.

This is a picture of the proposed OPIR (Overhead Persistent Infrared) system.

Can you spot the BS in this marketing slide ?

Northrop Grumman Completes Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor  Critical Design Review | Northrop Grumman



Do you see those clouds that are conveniently placed away from the launch site?

That's because Infrared sensors are horrible at seeing through water vapor.

So what happens when the launch takes place under cloud cover?

You mentioned the term "vaporware". Well, this is it, literally.
Not doubting you but what about having overlapping satellites (different height + angle) covering the same area, fusing the raw data and processing them with machine learning?

Presumably such a solution could work (especially if also aided with a large amount of small satellites hosting different types of sensors and then fusing all the data)
 

gelgoog

Captain
Registered Member
The problem was never tracking these weapons systems. The technology exists. The problem is intercepting them.
The interceptor needs to be faster than the weapon to have a chance of working.
Terminal phase interception also means you need to cover all possible targets with defense systems. That is never going to work.
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
Not doubting you but what about having overlapping satellites (different height + angle) covering the same area, fusing the raw data and processing them with machine learning?

Presumably such a solution could work (especially if also aided with a large amount of small satellites hosting different types of sensors and then fusing all the data)

Where are we getting the dataset to train this ML algorithm? That will require many hundreds (maybe thousands) of real-world launches and actual satellite data. And that's assuming you can even increase the raw resolution/accuracy by fusing different satellite angels etc. (the GiGo principle) through cloud cover. But let's assume that all of this is possible, and the cost of having X amount of satellites observing the same sector is all worthwhile. The question is whether the accuracy of this ML model ever be even close to 100%? If not, you'll end up back to the same saturation problem, but only after having wasted many billions of dollars first. Because what's of the point of spending X billions on a defense, when the opponent can spend X millions to easily saturate it?
 

ougoah

Colonel
Registered Member
WS600L is not a HGV system. It is just a very fast, very long range rocket like an MLRS system on steroids.

It seems to be a development from those pseudo ballistic missile, long range rockets. It just so happens to break through hypersonic speeds because it has a pseudo ballistic trajectory although the video seems to suggest it is guided and maneuverable. It is sort of a very inexpensive, low tier DF-ZF weapon for <300km targets and something a bit above the long range MLRS used by China that can hit targets within 1m accuracy from >200km away.

But is this in service with PLA?
 

Dante80

Junior Member
Registered Member
Time for a Quiz.

This is a picture of the proposed OPIR (Overhead Persistent Infrared) system.

Can you spot the BS in this marketing slide ?

Northrop Grumman Completes Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor  Critical Design Review | Northrop Grumman



Do you see those clouds that are conveniently placed away from the launch site?

That's because Infrared sensors are horrible at seeing through water vapor.

So what happens when the launch takes place under cloud cover?

You mentioned the term "vaporware". Well, this is it, literally.
This has been a solved problem since the early DSP times. Actually, weather has never been a real issue for Satellite Early Warning Systems......simply because you would need the ballistic missiles to fly under the weather to avoid lighting up the sats like a Christmas tree..

How have you reached this conclusion, friend? The technology for this is well understood and in use by multiple nations (including China) for 50 years now..
 
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