Chinese Engine Development


ZeEa5KPul

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This is assuming of course, that to the insiders the idea of "5 engines per year for six years" would've been considered as bad news to begin with lol. It's very possible that this was within their projected estimates.
But it's from these insiders that we have the mass production around ~2025 estimate. If production is still at 5 engines in 2026 then there would certainly have been problems. We should have seen them revising their estimates.

I wonder something else: how can this company know what the total production figure next year - much less in 2026? Only the PLAAF and AECC would know, not some contractor buried deep in the supply chain. All they would know is what they've been contracted to build.

If we want to go with the assumption that they'd know, then information about the WS-15 would be far more widespread than it currently is, which means we'd know a lot more about it than we do. That's a lot of mouths that could be blabbing some subcontractor's subcontractor knows the production schedule out to 2026.
 

Bltizo

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I believe every single article to be slightly different, not that they want to (so not different variants by design), but because they have not figured out every detail of mass producing. Every batch is a incremental improvement closer to the final.

If that "another company" is the other 50%, that would still indicate an overall decrease.

I don't believe the "other company" is producing something outside these test-production. There is no reason to produce in big number while the production specification is being ironed out, it is just waste.

So, there are two different arguments I am seeing from yourself and latenlazy to explain this, both of which are relatively plausible.

Your argument, as I understand it, is that year by year the number of test production engines built per year is reducing as they incrementally approach final production spec engines -- i.e.: that the yearly produced "XWS-15s" is reducing and that this company is projecting the number of "XWS-15s" it will build, of the ones that other companies will also build.

Latenlazy's argument, is that year by year the number of overall engines built is fixed, but that the percentages represent the proportion of value/work of each engine that the company expects to contribute to, which would explain why the engines per year is not increasing but the percentage is.


To me, both seem reasonable explanations, but what is still confusing is that of annual engine production being fixed for the whole six years of both types. Considering where we know WS-15 (and also WS-19) are in their development, it would be somewhat surprising for the number of WS-15s projected to be fixed or even to reduce going forwards for six whole years. Given both of these engines will likely be in development and testing in this phase, I wonder if the projected number of WS-15s to be built later on in those 6 years may be subject to change depending on the results of tests and development in the early 2020s.
 

Bltizo

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But it's from these insiders that we have the mass production around ~2025 estimate. If production is still at 5 engines in 2026 then there would certainly have been problems. We should have seen them revising their estimates.

I wonder something else: how can this company know what the total production figure next year - much less in 2026? Only the PLAAF and AECC would know, not some contractor buried deep in the supply chain. All they would know is what they've been contracted to build.

If we want to go with the assumption that they'd know, then information about the WS-15 would be far more widespread than it currently is, which means we'd know a lot more about it than we do. That's a lot of mouths that could be blabbing some subcontractor's subcontractor knows the production schedule out to 2026.

I actually wonder what the original wording with the 2025 date was written as; whether it was more associated with mass production or entry into service. It's a date that's been thrown around so much now that I think the original context might have been last.

After all, the two mean very different things and you can enter service with a pair of WS-15 powered J-20s in the first year for PLAAF testing and evaluation, and then a slightly larger number the next year, and then gradually increase as production ramps up.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Senior Member
Registered Member
I actually wonder what the original wording with the 2025 date was written as; whether it was more associated with mass production or entry into service. It's a date that's been thrown around so much now that I think the original context might have been last.

After all, the two mean very different things and you can enter service with a pair of WS-15 powered J-20s in the first year for PLAAF testing and evaluation, and then a slightly larger number the next year, and then gradually increase as production ramps up.
I dug this up from the beginning of the year
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/chinese-engine-development.t252/page-497#post-540974
Going by the post date we can say that Dr. Liu Daxiang predicted design certification within 3 to 5 years from mid-2018, i.e., mid-2021 to mid-2023. I believe there's another certification (production certification?) that takes about 2 years - so we can put mass production starting from mid-2023 to mid-2025. If we squint and look to the side we might say the document jives with the most pessimistic estimate. Still, I expect production numbers to be a lot higher than 5 engines per year (or 12.5 you calculated or 10) even before mass production. There should be closer to 10 times that many engines even in LRIP.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
So, there are two different arguments I am seeing from yourself and latenlazy to explain this, both of which are relatively plausible.

Your argument, as I understand it, is that year by year the number of test production engines built per year is reducing as they incrementally approach final production spec engines -- i.e.: that the yearly produced "XWS-15s" is reducing and that this company is projecting the number of "XWS-15s" it will build, of the ones that other companies will also build.

Latenlazy's argument, is that year by year the number of overall engines built is fixed, but that the percentages represent the proportion of value/work of each engine that the company expects to contribute to, which would explain why the engines per year is not increasing but the percentage is.


To me, both seem reasonable explanations, but what is still confusing is that of annual engine production being fixed for the whole six years of both types. Considering where we know WS-15 (and also WS-19) are in their development, it would be somewhat surprising for the number of WS-15s projected to be fixed or even to reduce going forwards for six whole years. Given both of these engines will likely be in development and testing in this phase, I wonder if the projected number of WS-15s to be built later on in those 6 years may be subject to change depending on the results of tests and development in the early 2020s.
I proposed the idea earlier that production could be fixed to five per year because it follows CAC’s test schedule for a new designation. It may be that a J-20B will see more changes than just an engine swap, and that the bottleneck here is not the engine production but the test schedule for the plane.
 

Bltizo

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I proposed the idea earlier that production could be fixed to five per year because it follows CAC’s test schedule for a new designation. It may be that a J-20B will see more changes than just an engine swap, and that the bottleneck here is not the engine production but the test schedule for the plane.

That is plausible but if past production of prototypes of a new variant of an aircraft (or even wholly new aircraft types) is anything to go by, and if you are suggesting the engine production rate has a relationship with the production of new prototypes, well then we should see both to start from a lower number and creep upwards over the years as the aircraft progresses through its development.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
I dug this up from the beginning of the year
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/chinese-engine-development.t252/page-497#post-540974
Going by the post date we can say that Dr. Liu Daxiang predicted design certification within 3 to 5 years from mid-2018, i.e., mid-2021 to mid-2023. I believe there's another certification (production certification?) that takes about 2 years - so we can put mass production starting from mid-2023 to mid-2025. If we squint and look to the side we might say the document jives with the most pessimistic estimate. Still, I expect production numbers to be a lot higher than 5 engines per year (or 12.5 you calculated or 10) even before mass production. There should be closer to 10 times that many engines even in LRIP.

Just about the highlighted part. Yes, there are different certifications, at least these two. WS-10 received its production certification years after we have seen it being mounted on operational aircraft. I think this is posted in this forum too. The date of production certification could be even after the serial production has started so long as the procedure is set.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
That is plausible but if past production of prototypes of a new variant of an aircraft (or even wholly new aircraft types) is anything to go by, and if you are suggesting the engine production rate has a relationship with the production of new prototypes, well then we should see both to start from a lower number and creep upwards over the years as the aircraft progresses through its development.
I’m extrapolating from what we saw with the 201X series here, not LRIP. But it’s just a theory I’m casually throwing into the ring.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Senior Member
Registered Member
Just about the highlighted part. Yes, there are different certifications, at least these two. WS-10 received its production certification years after we have seen it being mounted on operational aircraft. I think this is posted in this forum too. The date of production certification could be even after the serial production has started so long as the procedure is set.
So mass production can begin immediately after design certification so long as the production process is fixed?
 

Xsizor

Captain
Registered Member
Just some amateurish questions/ponderings
1. What exactly is the role of Shenyang Liming Factory? As I understand, they manufacture turbo fans. But for that they depend on other sources (for Raw materials as well as for Machinery).
2. What if Hebei subsidiary is a supplier of Machines that make the machines? What if, like someone said, this subsidiary makes the Machines that make the casing of the engines?
3. What if "5" is the number of production lines for WS-15?

The more interesting news is that of WS-19.There has been very little discussions/information regarding these engines. It could be a gamechanger engine that could see wide applications.
 

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