Blackstone
Brigadier
Seriously, did you really believe Xinhua news, an official mouthpiece of the CPC, would say any different? Can't imagine a scenario where Xhihua or People's Daily news saying Chinese economy on wrong path under CPC leadership.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
LoL so says the guy who believed load of crock like below fake news.
You are not only stupid, but also a hypocrite LoL.
broadsword
Brigadier
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Well, first of all, Chinese news do commonly say things like, "The dangers/challenges to our continued healthy growth are..." Secondly, the Chinese news have always said that China's economy is doing well and on course, growing on the right path, and they've always been right. The Western media has said everything about the Chinese economy. Some say it is flourishing, others say it's facing huge challenges that will stunt it, others say there are some challenges to be managed, and others say China's economy is ready to collapse any day now. For the most part, if they didn't go with a positive image, if they didn't mirror what Chinese news was saying, they were wrong. So when it comes to the Chinese economy, free foreign press, sometimes right, sometimes wrong; CCP controlled state media, always right. Track record given, you figure it out which one's a better bet to believe next.
Also, although state-controlled media could be biased, it at least has the ability to be truthful; the government knows what's really happening and can choose to disclose the truth. But foreign reporters sneaking around often get a very small peak of things, a toenail of the big picture, and have to go on that. Whether they intend to tell the truth or to pass on their biases/agenda is one thing; the problem is that they are often incapable of telling the truth because they could not find out with their limited resources, unlike state-controlled media. So, all things considered, I like to get my news straight from the horse's mouth.
In his defense, Contra, competent and honest are not the same thing. The most competent government is undoubtedly a master at using a menagerie of tactics to achieve its goals, with deception at the helm of its tools.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
Being a competent government is a pretty low bar these days. So saying they are competent really isn't saying much.
Also, xinhua had never been very good at reporting Chinese issues, better on things outside of China that doesn't involve Chinese interests.
So I find xinhua better than most free media, less bias or rose tinted glasses or finger pointing on non-chinese related foreign matters.
But once it comes to Chinese matters especially government, it is pretty much a mouthpiece.
solarz
Brigadier
Like all sources of information, we need to think critically. First, separate facts from opinions. Then, cross check the facts with several different sources. If multiple sources report the same facts, then they are credible. Use them to form your own opinions.
Blackstone
Brigadier
I've read lots of problems with Chinese banks in the financial pages, mostly written by famous economists and financial pundits, some with knowledge or experience in China financial sectors, but most without. The vast majority of their message could be summed up as China's banks are headed for serious downfalls. That outlook gained speed in the last 8 to 10 months, give or take.
Yukon Huang and James Stent are two China economy/financial experts with opposite views to the increasing popular 'China bears.' I pre-ordered Huang's new book, Cracking the China Conundrum: Why Conventional Economic Wisdom Is Wrong, and I'm sure it'll be a great read. Stent's China's Banking Transformation, the untold story is based on his personal experience working for two Chinese banks for about 13 years. It presents the other side of the story and gives great insights and facts not generally seen in the Western media. Here's a Nikkei article on James Stent that presents some much needed balance from the copious doom narrative of the China banking system.
Gloomy Western bears are wrong about China's banks
Continued...
Yukon Huang and James Stent are two China economy/financial experts with opposite views to the increasing popular 'China bears.' I pre-ordered Huang's new book, Cracking the China Conundrum: Why Conventional Economic Wisdom Is Wrong, and I'm sure it'll be a great read. Stent's China's Banking Transformation, the untold story is based on his personal experience working for two Chinese banks for about 13 years. It presents the other side of the story and gives great insights and facts not generally seen in the Western media. Here's a Nikkei article on James Stent that presents some much needed balance from the copious doom narrative of the China banking system.
Gloomy Western bears are wrong about China's banks
Continued...
Blackstone
Brigadier
Continued from post 7547...
Beijing’s new banking regulator faces pressing issues, but no dramatic shakeup is needed
Overall levels of debt relative to gross domestic product have risen rapidly over recent years. Corporate SOE debt is of greatest concern. In a socialist market economy guided from the top, banks support national plans. State-owned banks made loans to state-owned companies -- in effect moving money around the national balance sheet -- with the implicit understanding that the state would ensure the loans would be serviced. This appeared to be sovereign exposure, a prudent risk for the banks.
Solving the SOE "problem"
The solution of the SOE debt problem can take two forms. First, "financial engineering" -- stripping bad loans out of SOEs and into asset management companies, and debt-equity swaps. Debt-equity swaps will be used for potentially viable SOEs that can be turned around. These swaps reduce the SOE debt burden, and lower the overall ratio of corporate debt to GDP. But until an SOE is reformed, all that has happened on the books of the lending bank is that a non-earning loan has become a non-earning investment -- the total of nonperforming loans is reduced, but the bank's revenue is not improved, and the potential loss remains. This only buys time.
The real solution of banks' SOE debt problems lies largely outside of the banks' control. Under national reform plans set out in 2013, improving SOE efficiency is a priority. Carrying out this reform will be a massive challenge. Resistance from vested interests and inbred bureaucratic cultures will be formidable. The success or failure of the government's efforts in SOE reform will determine whether debt for equity swaps result in dividends and capital gains for banks, or simply put off the day of reckoning when the asset must be written off.
Despite the obstacles to SOE reform, there is no need for undue pessimism. It was only a decade ago that the state-owned banks were transformed from moribund relics of the planned economy into profitable organizations. Given adequate political will, there is no reason why other SOE sectors could not be similarly turned around.
One path the government could take would be "financialization" of SOE ownership -- along the lines of the financial holding company Central Huijin's ownership of key banks, and akin to the Temasek model of government ownership of corporations in Singapore. If that path is taken, banks acquiring seats on SOE boards of directors could become agents of change as they pressure SOEs to improve efficiency.
Guo, as CBRC chairman, can only facilitate the financial engineering of SOE debts. SOE reform itself is the responsibility of top national leadership. He must, however, address some other pressing issues.
First, the transformation of banks must be driven down from the top tier national banks to the thousands of local banks, which exist in a variety of forms. Some are doing well, but others have major governance and asset quality problems that need to be addressed.
Second, the shadow banking sector has grown rapidly, largely unsupervised. The risks of shadow banking are often exaggerated by observers, but nonetheless, to prevent destabilization of the financial system, possibly with knock-on effects, shadow banking must gradually come under better control.
Third, Chinese banks now lend large amounts to SMEs, but do not yet have the necessary experience and skills to analyze private sector risk properly. This is a much under-recognized long-term weakness. The capabilities of banks in lending to private sector firms, especially SMEs must be upgraded, otherwise we can expect serious NPL problems to arise out of private sector lending.
Fourth, the emergence of China as a world leader in the development of financial technology presents great opportunities, but also risks. Unlike the other challenges already mentioned, China is at the forefront in fintech; there are no models in other countries for it to follow. Fintech lying outside the existing supervision of any of the regulators must be guided so that Chinese companies and individuals realize the benefits, while preventing abuses. How China handles this will be fascinating to watch, and may provide models for the rest of the world.
As the CBRC undertakes these tasks, bear in mind that China's banking authority is not independent. Major initiatives by the CBRC must be supported and coordinated by the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party and the State Council, China's cabinet, which will consider the timing, costs, and benefits of proposed policies and how they impact other national interests.
China is committed to the reform of SOEs and to strengthening the banking sector. But in its usual style, it will be pragmatic, set priorities, proceed cautiously to minimize unanticipated consequences, and roll out reforms at a pace that will not cause disruption.
Reform Chinese-style does not proceed by dramatic "big bangs." It progresses slowly but surely, step by step.
James Stent is the author of "China's Banking Transformation: The Untold Story" (Oxford University Press 2017)
broadsword
Brigadier
Regarding the high cost of the Kenyan SGR vis-a-vis the Ethiopian railway also built by China, the reasons are detailed in:
and
@delft , @Hendrik_2000 , @manqiangrexue are vindicated.
I miss the Tsavo lions.
and
@delft , @Hendrik_2000 , @manqiangrexue are vindicated.
I miss the Tsavo lions.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Thanks a lot t2contra an excellent comparison vindicated my rebuttal to Blackstone post blindly trusting the knee jerk reaction of BBC article about Kenya SGR insinuating corruption and gross incompetent
Blackstone are you out there click the link and read the post
Here is the summary
For purposes of comparison, the Kenyan SGR is a bit more complex and grand. Here’s a detailed analysis. (Some figures are outdated)
On face value, it would be easy to say that Ethiopia is getting better value for money, but upon analyzing the technical aspects of each, plus issues like land acquisition, bridges and stations, you can see where the money is going on the Kenyan side.