Chinese Economics Thread


Skywatcher

Captain
Navarro's an idiot. He's a MBA professor at UCI, so him offering macroeconomic trade policy advice would like be asking a nuclear weapons engineer with no astrophysical background to write an article on black holes in a peer reviewed astrophysical journal.

And not just any nuclear weapons engineer, but one who believes into a geocentric solar system (to put it charitably, Navarro's ideas about international trade and national economic growth can be dated to the mid nineteenth century at best).

If he actually has any powers in his new job (and manages to use them), he'll get canned pretty, pretty soon.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Navarro's an idiot. He's a MBA professor at UCI, so him offering macroeconomic trade policy advice would like be asking a nuclear weapons engineer with no astrophysical background to write an article on black holes in a peer reviewed astrophysical journal.

And not just any nuclear weapons engineer, but one who believes into a geocentric solar system (to put it charitably, Navarro's ideas about international trade and national economic growth can be dated to the mid nineteenth century at best).

If he actually has any powers in his new job (and manages to use them), he'll get canned pretty, pretty soon.
He's an opportunist. His running for public office, failed. His book on Get rich quick investment , failed.
But he nailed on Anti-China sentiment.
Navarro brilliantly anticipated the American people’s demand for blaming America’s economic woes on China. But many of his ideas are still dangerously wrong. And, tragically, he’s smart enough to know it.
 

KIENCHIN

Junior Member
Registered Member
Here's what CHina needs to do in order in minimize the damages done in a trade war with US.

CHina runs $280 billion surplus with US. If US and China at trade war then China would lose the $280 surplus.



China can recoup $280 billion lost from US trade war by enlarge trade war against US allies.

Taiwan has trade surplus of $90 billion with China
South Korea has trade surplus of $75 billion on China.
Japan has trade surplus of $82 billion on China
Australia has trade surplus of $35 billion on China

Once China US trade war started, China should also start the trade war against US allies of Taiwan, South korea, Japan and Australia.

$280-$90-$75-$82-$35=surplus of $2 Billion.
There is really no need to start a trade war with these countries you mention and cause animosity, except for Australia the rest export alot of their products for final assembly in China that is then re-exported to the US.
Hence Trump's so called surprise attack would hit these US allies in a big way too and drive a wedge between them, not enough to destroy the alliance but something they will remember for long time to come. The USA has finally shown it's true self.
 
Here's what CHina needs to do in order in minimize the damages done in a trade war with US.
CHina runs $280 billion surplus with US. If US and China at trade war then China would lose the $280 surplus.
China can recoup $280 billion lost from US trade war by enlarge trade war against US allies.
Taiwan has trade surplus of $90 billion with China
South Korea has trade surplus of $75 billion on China.
Japan has trade surplus of $82 billion on China
Australia has trade surplus of $35 billion on China
Once China US trade war started, China should also start the trade war against US allies of Taiwan, South korea, Japan and Australia.
$280-$90-$75-$82-$35=surplus of $2 Billion.
nahhh, the logic is plain wrong ..... no more comments
 
I've noticed
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the construction of a big (1283.8 m long, 14.5 m wide) cable-stayed bridge over the Amur River began somewhere in
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yesterday, and Russians will cover two thirds of the total cost of $356m ... according to the source I quoted, which also says the construction is expected to take three years etc.
 

flyzies

Junior Member
Here's what CHina needs to do in order in minimize the damages done in a trade war with US.

CHina runs $280 billion surplus with US. If US and China at trade war then China would lose the $280 surplus.



China can recoup $280 billion lost from US trade war by enlarge trade war against US allies.

Taiwan has trade surplus of $90 billion with China
South Korea has trade surplus of $75 billion on China.
Japan has trade surplus of $82 billion on China
Australia has trade surplus of $35 billion on China

Once China US trade war started, China should also start the trade war against US allies of Taiwan, South korea, Japan and Australia.

$280-$90-$75-$82-$35=surplus of $2 Billion.
I don't mean to sound rude, but you need to read up on some fundamental economics because what you written shows you know nothing about how trade, or the US-China economic relationship.
 
I'm a little bit late here (the article is dated December 22, 2016), anyway Beijing fires trade warning after Trump appoints China hawk
Navarro appointment shocks officials as Alibaba returns to US fake goods blacklist
China has warned Donald Trump that “co-operation is the only correct choice” after the US president-elect
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to run a new White House trade policy office.

The appointment of Peter Navarro, a campaign adviser, to a formal White House post shocked Chinese officials and scholars who had hoped that Mr Trump would tone down his anti-Beijing rhetoric after assuming office.

Mr Navarro, a Harvard-trained economist and University of California Irvine professor, is the author of Death by China and other books that paint the country as America’s most dangerous adversary.

“Chinese officials had hoped that, as a businessman, Trump would be open to negotiating deals,” said Zhu Ning, a finance professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “But they have been surprised by his decision to appoint such a hawk to a key post.”

Adding to rising tensions between the two countries, the US Office of the Trade Representative yesterday put Alibaba, China’s biggest e-commerce platform, back on its
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of companies accused of being involved in peddling fake goods.

Hua Chunying, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, said Beijing would monitor the policy positions of the incoming US administration. "As two major powers with broad mutual interests, co-operation is the only correct choice," she said on Thursday.

Speaking hours before the appointment of Mr Navarro, which was first reported by the Financial Times, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi told the People’s Daily, the ruling Communist party’s flagship newspaper, that China and the US faced "new, complicated and uncertain factors affecting bilateral relations". He said the world’s two largest economies must respect each other's "core interests".

Cui Fan at the China Society of WTO Studies, a think-tank affiliated with China’s commerce ministry, warned that
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would respond to any unilateral action by the incoming Trump administration. “China is preparing itself for US trade actions,” he said. “China will respond with counteractions of its own.”

China has been scrambling to assess Mr Trump’s stance since he took a
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from Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen in early December, defying almost four decades of precedent. Under the “One China” policy, Washington has abstained from official interactions with the island, which Beijing regards as a “rogue province”.

Chinese diplomats have been setting up meetings with current and former US officials who focus on Asia to try to discern what
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. But many US experts have little contact with the Trump transition team, which is run out of Trump Tower in New York, complicating efforts to glean meaningful intelligence.

The highest level contact between China and the Trump team came last week when Yang Jiechi, the top Chinese foreign policy official, met Michael Flynn, the incoming national security adviser, in New York. While much of the Asia team remains unknown, Mr Trump is considering Matthew Pottinger, a former US marine and Wall Street Journal correspondent in China, for the top Asia adviser role in the White House.

Mr Trump’s recent rhetoric about China has given Beijing even more cause for concern. Since the call with Ms Tsai, he has publicly criticised China’s currency policies and island fortifications in the South China Sea. He has questioned Washington’s commitment to the One China policy, and also angered Beijing by alleging at the weekend that a Chinese warship had “stolen” a US navy submarine drone, which was later returned.

Mr Wang told the People’s Daily: "We will lead the way amid a shake-up in global governance and take hold of the situation amid international chaos. We will protect our interests amid intense and complex games."

Last week, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates and hinted at three more rises next year. The Fed move and expectations of tax cuts and infrastructure stimulus in the Trump administration are putting more
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, which has been declining in value against the dollar as Chinese authorities struggle to contain capital flight.

He Weiwen, deputy director of the Center for China and Globalisation, added that Beijing could retaliate against US exports and restrict market access for US companies.
source:
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advill

Junior Member
The appointment of a Hawkish Secretary of Trade is like the incoming US Administration "Sniping its nose to spite its face". Difficult for an arrogant trade leader to change his ways unless he is forced to. Perhaps the only option is to cooperate with other friendly nations. Global trade does not centre around a single Super-power that may decline without a cooperative WTO.
 

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