Chinese Economics Thread

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
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you took my post out of context. I wasn't criticizing american cars, I was criticizing the view that in order for an enterprize to justify its existance, it has to be profitable all the time. American cars had made big strides towards improving their fuel efficiency. That was the result of heavy investment that went in R&D and renewing/replacing their plants. Now amercian auto industry can survive if not flourish thanks to the action of US government.

But to free-market fanatics, leaving amercian auto giants like GM to its own fate would somehow make this happen because market is a magician, it is not investment and human engnieers that could make better cars, it's the magical "profit motive" . I merely pointed out how far detached that kind of view is from reality. All major captalist governments invest/subsidize/protect their key industries. A post-industrlized economy is highly coopertive and interwoven. You have to invest intensively and consistently for a long time to build a industry like automobile manufacture. To suggest, just because an industry is bad at generating profit at one point in time, it is "dead weight" that should be rid off is the narrow, unrealistic view of "free-market" school of economists.



Hummer's purchase was never going to get the chinese regulators approval , and so it proved.

Volvo sales in America under Chinese ownership is losing money and sales have decreased to an all time low.
 

ahadicow

Junior Member
Hummer's purchase was never going to get the chinese regulators approval , and so it proved.

Volvo sales in America under Chinese ownership is losing money and sales have decreased to an all time low.

beside the point I was called out to defend. Chinese companies were willing to "bail out" US car industry if US goverment would like to stand by and watch.
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
What happened to guys like Jim Chanos, Michael Pettis, Patrick Chovanec that predicted China will crash?

Chanos was shorting Chinese banks, property developers and global mining companies.
Well Chinese bank shares have recovered most of the losses over the past year.

Yea I remember well Nourial Roubini saying Chinese High-speed rail was a bubble as seats were empty when he rode the trains.
Wonder where this guy is.

And let's not forget our favourite china doomsayer Gordy Chang. He predicted doom in 2006, then 2011, now it's 2016. Guess Gordy has his own 5 year plan. Lol

They'll do just fine and be back in the next economic cycle as long as there are those mainly in the west willing to pay them to hear 'happy' stories about China's doom. They get paid whether their predictions come true or not.
Just look at Gordy, more than 10 years now and still going strong. The money's still coming and if your skin is thick enough, why not ? :)
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
One day both bubble will burst in China and US, when it burst in China, thousands of construction firms will go down and the bank will suffer, BUT what is left over is millions of new building waiting to be filled up by over 400 million farmer which planned to moving to the cities. This will be similar to US" Panic of 1893, which bank and construction firm over invested in railroads. However in this case, China really do have the demand to fill those apartments up.
.

Don't forget the tens of millions of Chinese retirees moving in to fill those new buildings as the large swath of them will start retiring in 2015.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
A lot of these guys are basing their predictions off what Gordan Chang has been peddling. Are these people really that stupid to listen to someone that already got it wrong writing a book predicting China would collapse by joining the WTO? No, the fact is you know all these people are probably putting a lot of money into shorting companies doing business with China and then working to make their bets pay-off by spreading negative news no matter if true or not. 60 minutes showed how there were those that saw the 2008 financial crisis coming and they made billions personally. If you've ever read about Wall Street types... they're jealous of one another and status is about how much money you make from the stock market no matter how it's made just as long it's a big win from the stock market. Look at how much money George Soros made off the 1997 Asian Finanacial Crisis. A lot of people blame him for actually starting it by talking about it first.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
A lot of these guys are basing their predictions off what Gordan Chang has been peddling. Are these people really that stupid to listen to someone that already got it wrong writing a book predicting China would collapse by joining the WTO? No, the fact is you know all these people are probably putting a lot of money into shorting companies doing business with China and then working to make their bets pay-off by spreading negative news no matter if true or not. 60 minutes showed how there were those that saw the 2008 financial crisis coming and they made billions personally. If you've ever read about Wall Street types... they're jealous of one another and status is about how much money you make from the stock market no matter how it's made just as long it's a big win from the stock market. Look at how much money George Soros made off the 1997 Asian Finanacial Crisis. A lot of people blame him for actually starting it by talking about it first.

Apparently they're still drinking that China will fall kool-aid by the gallons, while getting sick at the same time. Short sellers and speculators are not predictors of economics. They're manipulators of the so called "free" market system.
 
Another Source of Natural Gas for China? Perhaps.

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Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are working on projects for the supply of gas to China.

The project of Azerbaijani gas supply to China via Kazakhstan is on the stage of development, the general director of Kazakhstan’s JSC "KazTransGas" Serik Sultangaliyev said, according to RBC.

"The talks on Azerbaijani gas through Kazakhstan to China were held at the level of heads of national companies in both countries, now the project is being elaborated.

When the decision is announced, we will proceed to a feasibility study, will hold the negotiations with the Azerbaijani side and calculate the economic componentâ€, Sultangaliyev said.

He added that the national companies of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have established partnerships.

Heads of NC "KazMunaiGas" and SOCAR (State Oil Company of Azerbaijan) reported a few years ago that the plan to consider a joint project of a gas pipeline under the Caspian Sea for the organization of Azerbaijani gas through Kazakhstan to China.

According to the head of KazTransGaz, Kazakhstan with China are building the Beyneu-Bozoi-Shymkent gas pipeline to connect the western regions of the country, where there are rich deposits of natural gas, with the south of the country
 
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luhai

Banned Idiot
Well, if you wonna talk about gas, China actually has the largest shale gas reserves. The problem to recovering them without destroying the environment.

hart_fracking_figure1.jpg

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broadsword

Brigadier
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This is very uplifting news, at least for me. BYD managed it with some foreign help though.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BYD Shoots Up Quality Scales
BYD Auto, Industry News | Ash | November 29, 2012 at 12:16 pm

BYD S6 Quality BYD Shoots Up Quality Scales

JD Power’s 2012 China New Automobile Quality Study SM (IQS) Report was announced earlier this week showing some surprising results, Chinese manufacturers have constantly improved their quality over the past few years. BYD SUV model, the S6, has been a strong seller since its introduction earlier this year with sales continuing to climb, according to the quality report the S6 is one of China’s best models.

In terms of company brands, the standard of mainstream joint venture brands is about 160PP100. The IQS
of the BYD brand is 187PP100, 60PP100 lower than in 2011 and approaching the level of mainstream joint ventures. In terms of individual products, the score of the S6 fell to 109PP100. It is the only indigenous brand amongst the top 10 SUVs. Quality satisfaction is already approaching that of the Kia Sportage-R and the Subaru Forester, has exceeded the Korean Hyundai Tucson, Kia Sportage and the German VW Tiguan, and is far superior to indigenous models such as the Great Wall Haval H6 (249). This shows development of the quality of the BYD S6 has been effective. The S6 has already reached the level of mainstream joint venture models to become the no.1 indigenous SUV brand.

BYD cites its partnership with Mercedes as one of the major catalysts behind its recent increase in quality, along with cooperation with major suppliers such as Nokia, Apple, Samsung, Bosch and PPG. BYD also bought in foreign technology such as the Japanese die factory of Ogihara at Tatebayashi which has over 40 years of history, BYD further invested almost 100 million RMB introducing 24 painting robots.
 

Franklin

Captain
I have been doing some research on the debt in China. Now if we take the 122% of GDP corporate debt of Dragonomics and you add to that 30% of GDP household debt and 43% of GDP government debt that's both central as well as local then you come up with a figure close to a debt load of 200% of GDP. With other debts that are not included in this calculation China's debt to GDP ratio is well over 200%. This is the result of over investment in the infrastructure and keeping zombie companies alive that have been borrowing money that they are unable to pay back because the reason that they need to borrow is because they where loosing money in the first place. China's government and household debts are well managed but the problems are with the corporations and they are also the ones responsible for the large increase of foreign debt that China has accumulated in recent years. They are under pressure politically not to lay off staff during lean times and they are forced into taking on loans to keep operating.

China like Japan and the West is going to kick the can down the road for as long as they can. The majority of the debt in China is related to investment in infrastructure and housing. Some of these projects will generate profits immediately and other down the road but some of that investments will simply not perform no matter how long you wait. Those will be lost and the question is how much of China's current investments falls into that last category. And how much does the banks in the end have to write off. The majority of the debt is been owned by companies that can go bankrupt unlike governments and i think in the long run that's the solution.
 
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