Chinese Economics Thread

56860

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The data are out and they are even worse than I thought they would be. It seems that even my pessimistic estimates were quite optimistic

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Drop in consumption is to be expected given travel restrictions all over the country. However I expected industrial production to stagnate rather than decrease. Guangdong dwarfs Shanghai in manufacturing capacity and that entire province has been doing relatively well all year, with only a city wide lockdown imposed in Shenzhen for one week so far.
 

Michaelsinodef

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Drop in consumption is to be expected given travel restrictions all over the country. However I expected industrial production to stagnate rather than decrease. Guangdong dwarfs Shanghai in manufacturing capacity and that entire province has been doing relatively well all year, with only a city wide lockdown imposed in Shenzhen for one week so far.
Eh , I wouldn't fret too much over the 3% decrease in industrial production, although the number for the next quarter is more important, and if it's negative or about ~0% there is more cause for concern.
 

Overbom

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Drop in consumption is to be expected given travel restrictions all over the country. However I expected industrial production to stagnate rather than decrease. Guangdong dwarfs Shanghai in manufacturing capacity and that entire province has been doing relatively well all year, with only a city wide lockdown imposed in Shenzhen for one week so far.
I think industrial production was harmed due to blocked highways (affecting distribution of supplies) for covid control and that a lot of suppliers were based on Shanghai which resulted in production bottlenecks
 

56860

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Eh , I wouldn't fret too much over the 3% decrease in industrial production.
Yeah let's hope officials learned their lesson so another Shanghai level outbreak won't happen.
I think industrial production was harmed due to blocked highways (affecting distribution of supplies) for covid control and the that a lot of suppliers were based on Shanghai which resulted in production bottlenecks
That's true. Just goes to show the ripple effects a lockdown can have if imposed on a major city like Shanghai.
 

el pueblo unido

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Yeah let's hope officials learned their lesson so another Shanghai level outbreak won't happen.

That's true. Just goes to show the ripple effects a lockdown can have if imposed on a major city like Shanghai.
Shenzhen however has done a Marvelous job containing the outbreak, 10/10 if there is a rating for that, way above shanghai for the matter of fact, some heads will need to roll after this display of incompetence
 

56860

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Shenzhen however has done a Marvelous job containing the outbreak, 10/10 if there is a rating for that, way above shanghai for the matter of fact, some heads will need to roll after this display of incompetence
The entire Guangdong province has performed marvelously. Guangzhou also experienced sporadic outbreaks and they didn't even lock down. All these cities are proof that dynamic zero COVID works even in the face of a much more transmissible variant.
 

sndef888

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Wow, I knew the north (BAIC and FAW) was lagging behind in automobiles but didn't realise they were this far behind.
BAIC's mainstream Beijing marque only sold 3238 units in April, while FAW's mainstream Besturne only sold 1770.

Two automobile giants mainstream brands combined sold less than 1/20 of BYD. Even less than Nio. Their sales are almost completely from foreign JVs. I think it's possible that their JVs will get bought over by the foreign partners in the next 10 years and they get merged/spun off into a new small brand like Brilliance.
 

Overbom

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Also its kinda strange how unemployment in urban areas has been rising since November of 2021
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IMG_20220516_181343.jpg
The headline jobless rate – the surveyed urban unemployment rate – rose by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1 per cent in April, the highest level since March 2020, according to data released by
the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.
It was the second highest reading since 2018, when China first started publishing the data monthly, and above the government’s target to keep unemployment under 5.5 per cent this year.
China’s unemployment rate for workers in the 16 to 24 age group reached a record high of 18.2 per cent last month, which will add pressure to a labour market that will also see 10.76 million college graduates enter it this year.
 
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