Chinese Economics Thread


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India Risks Losing to Trade Bloc Defeating Very Reason It Exited
SHRUTI SRIVASTAVA NOVEMBER 25, 2020
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India’s key manufacturing exports may lose market share to a China-backed Asian trade bloc, from which Prime Minister Narendra Modi walked away last year to protect the interests of local farmers and industry.
Some of India’s
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such as engineering goods, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and electronics face erosion in market share on account of lower tariffs that members of the 15-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership enjoy for trading among themselves, according to economists. To put things in perspective, engineering products alone account for a quarter of the nation’s merchandise exports.
“In sectors where India is somewhat contributing to the global supply chain, RCEP would prove to be disadvantageous,” Amitendu Palit, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore, said by phone. “Under RCEP, cost of trade will come down which is a big advantage.”
As the trade pact kicks in, tariff will be eliminated on at least 92% of traded goods among participating countries. This is much more broad-based than what India has committed under its existing FTAs with Japan, South Korea or Asean.
Modi
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of what’s now the world’s largest free-trade agreement to appease farmers and touted the exit as a victory for India’s poor, but things have gone downhill for the economy since the coronavirus outbreak with gross domestic product declining the most among major economies. The RCEP is now seen paving the way for lowering trade barriers for member nations at a time when the pandemic poses a challenge to global commerce.
A spokesman for the trade ministry could not be reached immediately for comments.
The common rules of origin make the bloc an attractive destination for supply chains by making it easier for RCEP members to source inputs from within the bloc, said Priyanka Kishore, head of economics for South Asia and South-East Asia at Oxford Economics, said in an emailed response.
On the other hand, for India, the withdrawal will result in a loss of 1.2% of the nation’s projected GDP in 2030, according to a
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by Peterson Institute For International Economics.
This has exporters worried about expansion plans which may take a hit due to lack of competitive access to a huge market.
“Many sectors would want to shift to nations in the bloc to get access to the market and common rules of origin is a big advantage,” said Sharad Kumar Saraf, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisation, India’s largest exporters’ group.
As China takes an even greater role in Asian trade, Saraf says the only consolation for Indian exporters in a post-RCEP world are the proposed free trade deals with the EU, the U.K. and the U.S. -- three economies that are India’s top export destinations.
This also may force India to re-think eventually on joining multilateral pacts, which it is currently shunning in favor of bilateral agreements, Oxford Economics’s Kishore said.

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India loses out being excluded from RCEP, and they got no-one else to blame but themselves; the price of anglo white worship is high and getting higher every year China gets stronger.
 

KYli

Captain
China should honor a superficial gesture of talking. It doesn't mean anything, and costs nothing.
And give Morrison a way out to blame and bash China. And call China a bully and claim Australia is a victim. Australia doesn't even feel the pain yet. As the Chinese saying goes, killing the chickens to scare the monkeys. You want to give them a way out even before anyone is scare.
 

Gatekeeper

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I don't agree with that China should put Australia in its place LAST as the inverse of alphabet A. If you are rude to your customer than there is better store to buy from. Australia product can be replaced even iron with the new mega ship transporting iron, coal can be made cheaper.

For along time China is more than generous but those racist keep pushing their luck

I agreed. But then again, the suggestion come from a pro-western member. So I supposed it's not unusual coming from him.

The sad thing is, if this was US, and I can kinda understand. But Australia? A second rate nation trying the extra extra miles to poke China's eyes to impress his master. Gee. Give me a break.
 

Gatekeeper

Colonel
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China should honor a superficial gesture of talking. It doesn't mean anything, and costs nothing.

But you got to understand in the world of geopolitik. There's got to be a prize to be shown to the rest of the world community that one will have to pay if one persisted to poke a big player in the eye. Otherwise the floodgates will be opened to all that thinks it can do the same, but can still managed to get concession and talk out of it. Where's the deterrent?
 

bajingan

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Now they are talking about creating an informal alliance of western nations that could act as a kind of non-military, trade-focused version of NATO to respond as one when China uses economic sanctions to any of its members, mechanisms would include having allied nations agree to purchase goods or provide compensation when China boycotts imports, or jointly impose tariffs on China to offset lost trade, the report stated.
How can China counter such an alliance? I am not an economist If they are talking about imposing tariffs everytime China boycotts products from a country isn't that the same as passing the extra cost to their own citizens? China doesn't pay for tariffs right?
And if China boycotts say beef imports from australia so members of this alliance is obliged to purchase that beef to offset the lost trade, so potentially buying a product that they don't need or already had enough of, at what price? The premium price that China paid to australia? I don't see too many us dogs is thrilled at this idea lol
So its like asking all us allies (vassals) to commit to a trade war with China, with everybody in recession except China, who will be stupid enough to join such a scheme? Maybe australia lol
 

Temstar

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Now they are talking about creating an informal alliance of western nations that could act as a kind of non-military, trade-focused version of NATO to respond as one when China uses economic sanctions to any of its members, mechanisms would include having allied nations agree to purchase goods or provide compensation when China boycotts imports, or jointly impose tariffs on China to offset lost trade, the report stated.
How can China counter such an alliance? I am not an economist If they are talking about imposing tariffs everytime China boycotts products from a country isn't that the same as passing the extra cost to their own citizens? China doesn't pay for tariffs right?
And if China boycotts say beef imports from australia so members of this alliance is obliged to purchase that beef to offset the lost trade, so potentially buying a product that they don't need or already had enough of, at what price? The premium price that China paid to australia? I don't see too many us dogs is thrilled at this idea lol
So its like asking all us allies (vassals) to commit to a trade war with China, with everybody in recession except China, who will be stupid enough to join such a scheme? Maybe australia lol
It's such a silly idea no real response is needed:

1. Aren't no one paying out of pocket for US political initiative. In case the last 4 years haven't made it clear enough - if you want to collect hanger ons and deputies you have to cough up the money and pay them for them to do things for you, it doesn't work the other way around

2. No one has the capacity to gobble up trade if China decides to block them. Else there wouldn't be 700 million dollars worth of coal floating off the Chinese coast - you think Australia isn't ringing up everyone and asking if they to buy it for cheap as we speak?

3. No one is taking this administration seriously any more as they will be out the door in no time

4. Going by previously established pattern, it won't be long before China joins this alliance
 

lcompocida

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Now they are talking about creating an informal alliance of western nations that could act as a kind of non-military, trade-focused version of NATO to respond as one when China uses economic sanctions to any of its members, mechanisms would include having allied nations agree to purchase goods or provide compensation when China boycotts imports, or jointly impose tariffs on China to offset lost trade, the report stated.
How can China counter such an alliance? I am not an economist If they are talking about imposing tariffs everytime China boycotts products from a country isn't that the same as passing the extra cost to their own citizens? China doesn't pay for tariffs right?
And if China boycotts say beef imports from australia so members of this alliance is obliged to purchase that beef to offset the lost trade, so potentially buying a product that they don't need or already had enough of, at what price? The premium price that China paid to australia? I don't see too many us dogs is thrilled at this idea lol
So its like asking all us allies (vassals) to commit to a trade war with China, with everybody in recession except China, who will be stupid enough to join such a scheme? Maybe australia lol
If China bans purchase of Boeing aircraft, and only allows purchases of Airbus aircraft, Europe will fall silent incredibly quickly.
 

AssassinsMace

Brigadier
The West threatening to form an alliance to gang-up against China...? They already did that and it's called the West. Failed at it before now so they have act like it's something new because everyone knows they're innocent little little blond girls wearing their best Sunday church dresses and are only now working against China because committed the greatest crime of all and that's not bending the knee and pledging blind loyalty to the West. Just like with Trump, someone else is expected to sacrifice the most not having China their number one customer anymore. Yeah the world is going to stop selling to China and don't make any money because the West says so? The only way that can happen is the West has to pay all the countries that do business with China what they would lose doing what they want. Which Western countries are going to cough up their money. They're not providing those resources. They're in competition to buy those resources. They only way they will win is paying more than normal. It's an empty threat. They're greedy first. Yeah they don't want to admit it but that's why it'll never work for them.
 

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