You are quite the believer in economic projections, I've noticed. Yes, the IMF "predicts" the Chinese economy will grow by 1% this year, and 8% next year, while the American economy will shrink by 8% in 2020. Notice that in April they said the American economy would shrink by 5.9%, so they kind of cheat a bit.
The IMF's projections habitually low-ball Chinese growth, while the picture drawn for the US is usually more optimistic than warranted, because that's what the doctor ordered, after all. The IMF then updates the predictions frequently, and of course a more short term forecast, on average, will be more accurate.
But more to the point, under current conditions, how can we trust any sort of "projection"? At best, they describe current economic trends. No one can predict the course of the current pandemic, especially in the US. Pandemic "projections" themselves simply describe current trends with the disease, and often make unwarranted assumptions about people wearing masks, etc. No one predicted the explosion of the BLM movement, and no one even predicted the current American recession, which began before the pandemic hit, essentially under relatively normal economic circumstances.
Since the situation in China is much more stable, "projections" may be closer, perhaps off only by a couple of percentage points. For the US, all bets are off. The problem is that in any situation involving human society, you will have many separate developments which affect each other, and yet are not totally dependent on each other, and this makes matters unpredictable even in normal times. Now consider how the new spike in cases will affect the American economy. Consider also how the situation of electoral contest will affect the pandemic because yes, the effort to open up was at least partially due to electoral concerns. Many say the social explosions around George Floyd, etc have something to do with the current economic situation, which means many black people have been layed off, etc. Surely, further economic deterioration will affect both the social movements in the US, as well as the political situation, and yes, the pandemic. And how about the geopolitical conditions? The reactions of various countries to COVID-19 on American bases, as in Japan? After all, American choices regarding the pandemic have been heavily colored by the way they see the geopolitical situation, and the need to "look strong" and even risk the lives of its soldiers.
I have to insist: economic or social projections under normal conditions are a shaky proposition. Today, they're a joke.
