Chinese Economics Thread


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The point is this part is in regards to whether or not China's domestic economy is robust enough on its own. Considering how many are not like you and I and your family or what you have perceived as the majority. Anyway I'm pessimistic about China's economic chances. Japan may follow the US's overall stance and policy on China but even limited to US, UK, and Japan alone, that's quite a blow. Huawei's chances at developing 5G infra for the west have diminished further yet.

By all means we can think it's not too bad and isolated cases of a difficult situation, but I'm calling it a trend now. Reminds me of trade war chest thumping. China's worst cheerleaders were almost as idiotic as the guys on the other side announcing US victory a month in. Japan's gov paying that much for their multinationals to move out of China is unprecedented and Japan has been trading with China on relatively good terms for decades.

An attitude of magnanimity can be pretty bad. You never recognise genuine threats and acts of belligerence and just hold your head high and take the beating. China and CCP need to respond to the recent allegations and announcements. Allowing states to even propose suing China for reparations is dignifying something China's not even been close to proven guilty of. And even then, they will need to prove both that it isn't a natural virus and China did it all on purpose AND China covered it all up intentionally to spread it which again is actually untrue if you look at the timeline of how China behaved when some low level officials apparently got told in December... the theories about CCP knowing in Oct/Nov is fabricated and have zero substance or backing not even suggestions... weaker than theories of US soldiers spreading it. Anyway that is all just about impossible because it's just about surely untrue. What was the response to all the recent provocations? Nada. Some bs theories floated about a US bioweapon unleashed by soldiers/agents in Wuhan. If they're going to even suggest that, they need proof and evidence otherwise expect the counter attack to be even more vicious. Absolute idiots in charge. They know how to play the internal politics game but totally outfoxed here. I'm not shitting on the CCP, I personally think they've been pretty on top of the game for the better half of their history. I'm just saying it appears they've got no cards to play now and falling back on shipping out donations which is failing to get any goodwill because there's more talk of Chinese substandard supplies being shipped out.
The only thing I got from this is your distrust and how you heavily underestimate China. Let's agree to disagree because I hate these cynical "we're doomed and falling" talks.
@ougoah Here's my take on it:

There are accusations that China should be sued to pay reparations. All of them come from private groups or small time individual politicians. No nation, even the US, has made such a claim. If China were to answer this, the best answer would be to point out the far more incompetent handling of the accusing governments even after Wuhan was locked down and they had basically no cases. Pointing this out to a small private group would invoke the other government to respond in defense of itself; in many cases, this could be a government that had recently blocked an American attempt to criticize China at the G7 or UN and this could be a government with warming ties to China. This would actually create a diplomatic row out of something as stupid as and inept group's legal fantasy. This is not what China wants.

Also, yes, many stupid uneducated people can be persuaded by articles to believe that China is at fault and hate China for it. In general, you'd have to already hate and fear China from the beginning to go this route. China's economic success was never based on people's positive opinion of it in the West. It was always based on superior performance and quality to cost capabilities. This isn't going to change. Where China continues to bring advantage there, manufacturers will go there for that advantage or be destroyed internationally by competitors who do. Where China is losing advantage is low end unskilled manufacturing where low wages is the absolute advantage and that was bound to happen anyway as the Chinese economy and Chinese technology modernizes and develops. So we will see some manufacturing move out but it was inevitable and expected under the reforms to move up the manufacturing value chain.

Importantly, the legal threat is not present (both in terms of technical procedure and in terms of legal/moral argument) and such calls can only be from un-rebutted articles as any counter argument could easily destroy such a joke of an accusation. Perhaps Chinese news media can answer them; perhaps they already have. But trying to convince an audience that has always been looking for reasons to hate China due to their own fear is an errand not worth running, especially because China has flourished all this time against their irrational hatred.
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A timeline of what Trump has said on coronavirus

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Jan. 20:
First confirmed U.S. case of coronavirus announced in Washington state.
Jan. 22: 1 case confirmed in U.S.
"We do have a plan"

"We do have a plan and we think it's gonna be handled very well, we've already handled it very well. — President Trump to CBS News White House correspondent Paula Reid in Davos, Switzerland.
Jan. 22: 1 case confirmed in U.S.
"We have it under control"

"We have it totally under control. It's one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It's going to be just fine." CNBC interview in Davos, Switzerland
Jan. 24: 2 cases confirmed in U.S.
Appreciates China's "efforts and transparency"

President Trump issues his first tweet on coronavirus. "China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!"
Jan. 29: 5 cases confirmed in U.S.
U.S. experts "are on top of situation 24/7"

"Just received a briefing on the Coronavirus in China from all of our GREAT agencies, who are also working closely with China. We will continue to monitor the ongoing developments. We have the best experts anywhere in the world, and they are on top of it 24/7!" the president tweeted.
Jan. 30: 7 cases confirmed in U.S.
U.S. has a "very little problem" with five cases

On this day, the World Health Organization declares coronavirus a public-health emergency. "We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five — and those people are all recuperating successfully. But we're working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it's going to have a very good ending for us … that I can assure you," Mr. Trump said at a speech at a Michigan manufacturing plant.
Jan. 31: 8 cases confirmed in U.S.
President Trump bars many travelers from China, and U.S. declares a public health emergency.

Feb. 5: 11 cases confirmed in U.S.
President Trump is acquitted after impeachment trial in the Senate.

Feb. 7: 11 confirmed cases in U.S.
With warmer weather "virus hopefully becomes weaker with warmer weather, and then gone"

"Just had a long and very good conversation by phone with President Xi of China. He is strong, sharp and powerfully focused on leading the counterattack on the Coronavirus. He feels they are doing very well, even building hospitals in a matter of only days. Nothing is easy, but......he will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone. Great discipline is taking place in China, as President Xi strongly leads what will be a very successful operation. We are working closely with China to help!" the president tweeted.
Feb. 10: 12 confirmed cases in U.S.
Xi "feels...the heat, generally speaking, kills this kind of virus"

"I had a long talk with President Xi — for the people in this room — two nights ago, and he feels very confident. He feels very confident. And he feels that, again, as I mentioned, by April or during the month of April, the heat, generally speaking, kills this kind of virus," the president said during a White House meeting with governors.
Feb. 23: 51 confirmed cases in U.S.
Situation is "very much under control"

"We're very much involved. We're very — very cognizant of everything going on. We have it very much under control in this country," the president told reporters, in response to a question about whether he had been updated on the coronavirus.
Feb. 24: 51 confirmed cases in U.S.
"The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA"

"The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!" the president tweeted.
Feb. 25: 57 confirmed cases in U.S.
Coronavirus is "very well under control in our country"

"You may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country. We have very few people with it, and the people that have it are - in all cases, I have not heard anything other," the president said during a press conference on his trip to India.
Feb. 26: 58 confirmed cases in U.S.
The 15 cases in U.S. "within a couple days is going to be down close to zero"

"I want you to understand something that shocked me when I saw it that — and I spoke with Dr. Fauci on this, and I was really amazed, and I think most people are amazed to hear it: The flu, in our country, kills from 25,000 people to 69,000 people a year. That was shocking to me. And, so far, if you look at what we have with the 15 people and their recovery, one is — one is pretty sick but hopefully will recover, but the others are in great shape. But think of that: 25,000 to 69,000. ... "And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done," the president said during a Coronavirus Task Force Press briefing at the White House.
Feb. 27: 60 confirmed cases in U.S.
Virus will "disappear" one day "like a miracle"

"It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear," the president said during a White House meeting with African-American leaders.
Feb. 29: 74 confirmed cases in U.S.
"Everything is really under control"

"And we've done a great job. And I've gotten to know these professionals. They're incredible. And everything is under control. I mean, they're very, very cool. They've done it, and they've done it well. Everything is really under control." — Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland. One attendee from that event later tested positive, and lawmakers who attended went under self-quarantine.
Feb. 29: 74 confirmed cases in U.S.
First coronavirus death in the U.S. on this day

"We've taken the most aggressive actions to confront the coronavirus. They are the most aggressive taken by any country and we're the number one travel destination anywhere in the world, yet we have far fewer cases of the disease then even countries with much less travel or a much smaller population." —White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing


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March 4: 217 confirmed cases in U.S.
It's "very safe to fly" in "large portions of the world"

"Yeah, I think where these people are flying, it's safe to fly. And large portions of the world are very safe to fly. So we don't want to say anything other than that. And we have closed down certain sections of the world, frankly, and they've sort of automatically closed them also. They'll understand that and they understand it better, perhaps, than anybody. Yes, it's safe." — White House meeting with airline executives.
March 6: 402 confirmed cases in U.S.
"Anybody that wants a test can get a test"

"Anybody that wants a test can get a test. ... The tests are all perfect, like the letter was perfect, the transcription was perfect, right?" — CDC headquarters in Atlanta.
March 9: 959 confirmed cases in U.S.
Compares number of deaths caused by coronavirus and flu

"So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!" the president tweeted.
March 10: 1,300 confirmed cases in U.S.
"Just stay calm. It will go away"

"Well, this was unexpected. This was something that came out of China, and it hit us and many other countries. You look at the numbers; I see the numbers with just by watching you folks. I see it — it's over 100 different countries. And it hit the world. And we're prepared, and we're doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away," the president said on Capitol Hill after meeting with Republican senators.
March 11: 1,700 confirmed cases in U.S.
"We will be suspending all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days"

"To keep new cases from entering our shores, we will be suspending all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days. The new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight. These restrictions will be adjusted subject to conditions on the ground." — Televised Oval Office address to the nation.
March 12: 2,200 confirmed cases in U.S.
Highlights lower number of deaths in U.S.

"I mean, think of it: The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point. Other countries that are smaller countries have many, many deaths. Thirty-two is a lot. Thirty-two is too many. But when you look at the kind of numbers that you're seeing coming out of other countries, it's pretty amazing when you think of it. So, that's it." — Trump meeting with Irish prime minister at White House.
March 13: 2,700 confirmed cases in U.S.
Declares national emergency

"We have 40 people right now. Forty. Compare that with other countries that have many, many times that amount. And one of the reasons we have 40 and others have — and, again, that number is going up, just so you understand. And a number of cases, which are very small, relatively speaking — it's going up. But we've done a great job because we acted quickly. We acted early. And there's nothing we could have done that was better than closing our borders to highly infected areas." — Rose Garden press conference.
March 16: 6,400 confirmed cases in U.S.
Announces new social distancing guidelines, says outbreak could last until July or August

"I've spoken actually with my son. He says, 'How bad is this?' It's bad. It's bad. But we're going to — we're going to be, hopefully, a best case, not a worst case. And that's what we're working for."
"They think August, it could be July," he said at a press briefing Monday, referring to members of the White House task force. "Could be longer than that."— White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing.

March 24: 65,800 confirmed cases in U.S.
Wants country and economy "raring to go by Easter"

"I would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter," the president said of easing social distancing guidelines in parts of the country."
"I think Easter Sunday — you'll have packed churches all over our country." — Fox News town hall.
March 24: 65,800 confirmed cases in U.S.
"We begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel"

"There is tremendous hope as we look forward and we begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel." — White House Coronavirus Task Force Press briefing.
March 29: 161,800 confirmed cases in U.S.
Extends Easter target to April 30

"The better you do, the faster this whole nightmare will end. Therefore, we will be extending our guidelines to April 30th to slow the spread. ... We can expect that, by June 1st, we will be well on our way to recovery. We think, by June 1st, a lot of great things will be happening." — White House Rose Garden press conference.
March 31: 213,400 confirmed cases in U.S.
"This could be a hell of a bad two weeks." Raises possibility of 100,000 deaths in U.S.

"This could be a hell of a bad two weeks. This is gonna be a very bad two — or maybe even three — weeks," the president said. "This is going to be three weeks like we haven't seen before." — White House Coronavirus Task Force Briefing.
March 31: 213,400 confirmed cases in U.S.
Trump says COVID-19 is "not the flu"

"But it's not the flu. It's vicious. When you send a friend to the hospital and you call up to find out, how is he doing, it happened to me. Where he goes to the hospital, he says goodbye, sort of a tough guy, little older, little heavier than he'd like to be, frankly. And you call up the next day, 'how's he doing?' And he's in a coma? This is not the flu. — White House Coronavirus Task Force Briefing.
April 3: 273,880 confirmed cases in U.S.
Trump stands by past comments that virus will "go away"

"I said it was going away - and it is going away." — White House Coronavirus Task Force Briefing.


Yeah I don't believe 2 billion dollar Japanese government initiative is going to make a dent on the 220 billion dollar trade between Japan and China If anything I believe the trade will accelerate as PLA wolf eloquently said. Few country in the world can match Chinese competitiveness in term of availability of skilled labor, complete ecosystem of supllier and part manufacturer cluster around 3 large hyper metropolitan of Jiangsu Zhejiang Jiangsi area, Pearl river area and Chongqing Chendu area.

Anyway the relationg between Japan and China has changed considerably China is no longer in desperate need of Japanese technology increasing she export technology to Japan like communication and 5G technology. I don't see anything wrong with the Japanese trying to diversify their supply chain. China is not cheap country anymore to do numbing assembly job and increasingly become more of a competitor It is natural evolution

Add to that first class infrastructure of highway, train, port and communication system Relatively efficient custom bureaucracy and fewer red tape in setting up company or immigration permit or availability of land and industrial estate.

Huge domestic and increasingly wealthy consumer and availability of technical personnel and increasingly capable of inventing novel technology yet still 1/3 rd wages of western country. China is now come first when it come to patent and graduating STEM
Large swath of hinterland is not developed yet So she has this advantage of being the first world and third world simultaneouly allowing for rolling development

Never trust western media I have followed it for decaded and they have been saying China is doomed and will meet its waterloo Never materialized it is more wishfull thinking then anything eandlse
The future is bright for China all she has to do is keep doing what she has been doing for decades mind your own business and working hard wait for the foe to make mistake She will win the competition without firing a shot
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Anticipate this trend to continue and expand.
It could be a just pragmatic move but if this is just following the US agenda, then say bye-bye to Japan. Japan is a perfect example of... their screwed. If the Japanese lived by their own means, they would never have been the powerhouse they were. Japan doesn't have the natural resources to be self-sufficient when it comes to maintaining the standard of living they have today. That's why they're export dependent. They need to sell overseas in order to maintain the standard of living they're use to. Japan has competition from China and South Korea and Western allies. Their overseas markets to sell things are shrinking naturally. Shoot themselves in the foot and add to their pain especially when their leader in the US has plans to make everything in the US to break dependency on others countries. And because Japan has few natural resources of their own, they have to buy what raw materials they need to make things in markets they have to compete with China. Really, a measly $2 billion dollars to help Japanese corporations to move out of China? Just look at how coronavirus killed the $48 billion dollar a year tourism industry Vietnam was relishing from Chinese tourists alone. Japanese corporations will be losing a lot more than $2 billion if this is a move to isolate China with the US. That's why this could just be US spin.

People act like the US will be back to where it was at before the coronavirus hit like nothing ever happened as soon as the coronavirus has been dealt with. Americans want everything American made in the US. Do they still expect the world to buy their products after that? The US already worked to isolate Chinese companies to work freely around the world and as a result, many Chinese companies are making just as much money as their US rivals with mostly their domestic market alone. The US needs to sell overseas to make that much. Anything the US makes will cost more. The world isn't going to be buying American when the US is closing itself off to the world. Is this like when Peter Navarro told Trump before he started his trade war that no country would dare retaliate after the US slapped tariffs on them? Why? Because the world needed the US that much more that they would take the abuse and do nothing? Trump is the one that has retracted as a result. The world needs China to buy their products. Canada followed along with Trump and his anti-China agenda despite his insults to Trudeau and Canada has only gotten pain and not rewards from that action. Canada too was arrogant to think China would not dare do anything to them. Trump not helping to release Canadians being held by China because Canada kidnapped a Chinese citizen for the US. I'd expect that kind of disrespect between the US and China but the US and Canada...?