Chinese Economics Thread


hydrogenpi

Junior Member
Registered Member
Anyone with over 100k to spare on stocks shouldn't complain ;).

Yes, people should always invest in themselves, not in other hedge fund manager's portfolios. Life is limited and youth is even more so. Now is the time to front load and effectuate money into raw experiences while one still can. In high school we were taught to forgo buying something, saved it and invest it in the market or CDs (back then 10% wasn't unheard of) and that by the miracle of compound interest that by the time retirement comes around we'd all be millionaires (back when million bucks was a lot of money) but what they don't tell you is the human body starts dying after age of 20, the cells get older, and by peak of age of 30, a man is past his max prime, so it were... a person at age 65 cannot possibly enjoy life at the same level as someone only 25, etc.... this is the truth of the time value of money in reverse. Now Fed lower interest rate to zero, may go negative rates, quantitative easing means true inflation is 10% per year on year....

Now more than ever people need to focus on investing directly into themselves, not in money, but in the form of raw experiences those fleeting moments and cheese stuff like that because at the end of the day that is all that is left and all there really ever was.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
Yes, people should always invest in themselves, not in other hedge fund manager's portfolios. Life is limited and youth is even more so. Now is the time to front load and effectuate money into raw experiences while one still can. In high school we were taught to forgo buying something, saved it and invest it in the market or CDs (back then 10% wasn't unheard of) and that by the miracle of compound interest that by the time retirement comes around we'd all be millionaires (back when million bucks was a lot of money) but what they don't tell you is the human body starts dying after age of 20, the cells get older, and by peak of age of 30, a man is past his max prime, so it were... a person at age 65 cannot possibly enjoy life at the same level as someone only 25, etc.... this is the truth of the time value of money in reverse. Now Fed lower interest rate to zero, may go negative rates, quantitative easing means true inflation is 10% per year on year....

Now more than ever people need to focus on investing directly into themselves, not in money, but in the form of raw experiences those fleeting moments and cheese stuff like that because at the end of the day that is all that is left and all there really ever was.
Carpe diem doesn't mean spend all your money for experiences. It just means living everyday to the fullest. Then millenials had to dumb it down to yolo, and blow it all on avocado toast.

I save plenty, between my wife and my incomes, we can probably put away a good 1/2 of net since we paid off our mortgage last year. But we also basically buy whatever we want. I self direct my investments, some are in ETFs. None are in mutual funds.

But it doesn't mean we don't enjoy experiences, we travel internationally twice a year for 4-5 weeks total. This is the first year we didn't go anywhere in the spring.

We calculated the amount we need to retire based on an average inflation rate, and our current lifestyle needs. And expected future expenses like university for kid and expected big expenses every 10 years like cars.
 

FriedRiceNSpice

Senior Member
Yes, people should always invest in themselves, not in other hedge fund manager's portfolios. Life is limited and youth is even more so. Now is the time to front load and effectuate money into raw experiences while one still can. In high school we were taught to forgo buying something, saved it and invest it in the market or CDs (back then 10% wasn't unheard of) and that by the miracle of compound interest that by the time retirement comes around we'd all be millionaires (back when million bucks was a lot of money) but what they don't tell you is the human body starts dying after age of 20, the cells get older, and by peak of age of 30, a man is past his max prime, so it were... a person at age 65 cannot possibly enjoy life at the same level as someone only 25, etc.... this is the truth of the time value of money in reverse. Now Fed lower interest rate to zero, may go negative rates, quantitative easing means true inflation is 10% per year on year....

Now more than ever people need to focus on investing directly into themselves, not in money, but in the form of raw experiences those fleeting moments and cheese stuff like that because at the end of the day that is all that is left and all there really ever was.
Well, I would think right now would not be the best time to invest in "raw experiences" either - unless there are "raw experiences" that one can enjoy in the comfort of one's own home, by oneself.
 

plawolf

Brigadier
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Anticipate this trend to continue and expand.
Japanese trade and foreign policy should be viewed as an extension of US trade and foreign policy. Japan has done plenty of stupid and self damaging things to blindly follow America’s lead.

As such, I would not treat anything the Japanese does as the start of any new trend.

Despite the best efforts of western, especially US, propaganda, COVID19 will make China a much more attractive investment and production destination, not less.

There were major disruptions early on, as China went all out to tackle the outbreak, but now China is being vindicated by facts and reality as it emerges from the outbreak the quickest to recover and the least damaged.

Those companies that followed political and ideological reasons and pulled out of China recently must be really pleased with their decisions as their new factories sit locked down while their rivals’ Chinese factories return to operation.

Depending on how long this drags out, we could see a massive wave of investment into China as China will literally be the only game in town.

Even after the dust had settled from COVID19, any rational and clear eyed corporate leader will see just how much more effectively China handled this crisis compared to even ‘first world’ nations, and would factor that additional risk premium into the equation when evaluating whether to leave or stay in China.

So no matter if you look at it from a short or medium term prospective, it makes no sense for anyone to follow the lead of American and Japanese companies to pull out of China, because nobody else cares about the stupid politics that is the true and primary reason for the America and Japanese decisions.
 

ougoah

Captain
Registered Member
Japanese trade and foreign policy should be viewed as an extension of US trade and foreign policy. Japan has done plenty of stupid and self damaging things to blindly follow America’s lead.

As such, I would not treat anything the Japanese does as the start of any new trend.

Despite the best efforts of western, especially US, propaganda, COVID19 will make China a much more attractive investment and production destination, not less.

There were major disruptions early on, as China went all out to tackle the outbreak, but now China is being vindicated by facts and reality as it emerges from the outbreak the quickest to recover and the least damaged.

Those companies that followed political and ideological reasons and pulled out of China recently must be really pleased with their decisions as their new factories sit locked down while their rivals’ Chinese factories return to operation.

Depending on how long this drags out, we could see a massive wave of investment into China as China will literally be the only game in town.

Even after the dust had settled from COVID19, any rational and clear eyed corporate leader will see just how much more effectively China handled this crisis compared to even ‘first world’ nations, and would factor that additional risk premium into the equation when evaluating whether to leave or stay in China.

So no matter if you look at it from a short or medium term prospective, it makes no sense for anyone to follow the lead of American and Japanese companies to pull out of China, because nobody else cares about the stupid politics that is the true and primary reason for the America and Japanese decisions.
Friends in China who operate in various manufacturing fields say the economic outlook is bleak. Orders for foreign production goods have stopped for a few of them and they have production running until end of May. It's not all as rosy as you have described. Goodwill, public relations, and general sentiments of common people matter more than most will give them credit. China has lost the war of words. This attitude isn't limited to Anglo nations.

I think CCP gambled a lot on using capital to buy favours and political influence where they can but they didn't account for racial/national/cultural biases. Perhaps they should have focused as much effort on winning over the little guys. I think all the consequences of this will become more apparent towards the end of this decade.

To give an example of how badly China is hated now, there's never been anywhere close to this much fuss over even more egregious and direct proven faults and cover ups such as Fukushima or the US gov intentionally spreading syphilis to non-consenting African American groups. These were both in the recent past. No furore over all the millions of lives lost and atrocities committed in the US empire's illegal wars. No anger over Swine flu and H1N1 variant outbreaks started in the US and spread to the world. Or Ebola (although that was relatively contained). But even an unproven "guilt" of COVID-19 originating in China, even if it was purely a natural accident (there are more countries that have "wet-markets" than countries without plus continue to operate), a great deal of voices are crying for reparations and the destruction of the CCP, if not more extreme and racist attitudes. There must be more to this than "commie dislike". It's really a manifestation of 50 years of active brainwashing combined with some truths and half-truths. They've orchestrated this perfectly and weaponised every aspect of Chinese "failure" to weave this tapestry which today is working close to full force against both the CCP and by association, the Chinese peoples (citizens and diaspora). China has very little power over this and the bullshit self-congratulatory head in the sand propaganda like Italian officials being "influenced" to record a town playing the Chinese anthem, does not help the real situation one bit. It's not a minority who have been turned anti-CCP (CCP has become a much more well known and used acronym now).

I do not see the world recovering from this and going back to pre-COVID attitudes towards China as a political and industrial entity. No doubt most business will dry up and China will have to increasingly rely on domestic and developing world. This is going to slow economic progress which means science and tech. Hopefully the investments into science and tech will pay off. And you can bet after all the contracts dry up, Chinese people and businesses will continue to buy up those fancy Italian cars, Swiss watches, French perfumes, American planes, American phones until they run out of money.

I know I come across very cynical about the situation but Chinese do lack a national pride and unity almost every other tribe has in spades. Look at how easily much of HK was coerced into working against their own interest. Look at Miles Guo, the Shen Yun FLG cult, many liberal Chinese diaspora. Without a forced unity, even China itself will eventually fall apart. And it appears the faceless powers would rather decouple and lose China's business by impoverishing it eventually, than to make money off the Chinese market while knowing it may need to deal with a competing threat. I for one am not as optimistic all will be fine after this. If and when the world recovers.
 

Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
Mask Factory GM vs China

I have been under the impression that GM is going to manufacture N95 respiratory mask that doctors and nurses need to deal with Covid-19 patients. From the video, GM is producing surgical masks and not respiratory mask ! Then I found this GM website which stated that the company is going produce Level 1 surgical masks.

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ASTM Level 1 surgical mask gives the lowest level of protection of all certified mask and is suitable for doctor's office during normal time, certainly not frontline workers as the title of the article claimed.

I hope I am wrong about what GM is producing.
 

Aniah

Junior Member
Registered Member
Friends in China who operate in various manufacturing fields say the economic outlook is bleak. Orders for foreign production goods have stopped for a few of them and they have production running until end of May. It's not all as rosy as you have described. Goodwill, public relations, and general sentiments of common people matter more than most will give them credit. China has lost the war of words. This attitude isn't limited to Anglo nations.

I think CCP gambled a lot on using capital to buy favours and political influence where they can but they didn't account for racial/national/cultural biases. Perhaps they should have focused as much effort on winning over the little guys. I think all the consequences of this will become more apparent towards the end of this decade.

To give an example of how badly China is hated now, there's never been anywhere close to this much fuss over even more egregious and direct proven faults and cover ups such as Fukushima or the US gov intentionally spreading syphilis to non-consenting African American groups. These were both in the recent past. No furore over all the millions of lives lost and atrocities committed in the US empire's illegal wars. No anger over Swine flu and H1N1 variant outbreaks started in the US and spread to the world. Or Ebola (although that was relatively contained). But even an unproven "guilt" of COVID-19 originating in China, even if it was purely a natural accident (there are more countries that have "wet-markets" than countries without plus continue to operate), a great deal of voices are crying for reparations and the destruction of the CCP, if not more extreme and racist attitudes. There must be more to this than "commie dislike". It's really a manifestation of 50 years of active brainwashing combined with some truths and half-truths. They've orchestrated this perfectly and weaponised every aspect of Chinese "failure" to weave this tapestry which today is working close to full force against both the CCP and by association, the Chinese peoples (citizens and diaspora). China has very little power over this and the bullshit self-congratulatory head in the sand propaganda like Italian officials being "influenced" to record a town playing the Chinese anthem, does not help the real situation one bit. It's not a minority who have been turned anti-CCP (CCP has become a much more well known and used acronym now).

I do not see the world recovering from this and going back to pre-COVID attitudes towards China as a political and industrial entity. No doubt most business will dry up and China will have to increasingly rely on domestic and developing world. This is going to slow economic progress which means science and tech. Hopefully the investments into science and tech will pay off. And you can bet after all the contracts dry up, Chinese people and businesses will continue to buy up those fancy Italian cars, Swiss watches, French perfumes, American planes, American phones until they run out of money.

I know I come across very cynical about the situation but Chinese do lack a national pride and unity almost every other tribe has in spades. Look at how easily much of HK was coerced into working against their own interest. Look at Miles Guo, the Shen Yun FLG cult, many liberal Chinese diaspora. Without a forced unity, even China itself will eventually fall apart. And it appears the faceless powers would rather decouple and lose China's business by impoverishing it eventually, than to make money off the Chinese market while knowing it may need to deal with a competing threat. I for one am not as optimistic all will be fine after this. If and when the world recovers.
"Chinese do lack a national pride and unity almost every other tribe has in spades. "

You say that then you immediately go and mention everyone who doesn't have any pride in their own nation and sided with the foreigners. Majority of Chinese support their government and leaders. The majority do support and love their own nation. And it's an overwhelming majority too. Have you seen how the Chinese people are acting now? My family in China are saying the complete opposite of what you are saying. The same goes for the netizens on Chinese social media. I seriously don't understand how you get these ideas and views unless you're extremely cynical.
 

ougoah

Captain
Registered Member
"Chinese do lack a national pride and unity almost every other tribe has in spades. "

You say that then you immediately go and mention everyone who doesn't have any pride in their own nation and sided with the foreigners. Majority of Chinese support their government and leaders. The majority do support and love their own nation. And it's an overwhelming majority too. Have you seen how the Chinese people are acting now? My family in China are saying the complete opposite of what you are saying. The same goes for the netizens on Chinese social media. I seriously don't understand how you get these ideas and views unless you're extremely cynical.
The point is this part is in regards to whether or not China's domestic economy is robust enough on its own. Considering how many are not like you and I and your family or what you have perceived as the majority. Anyway I'm pessimistic about China's economic chances. Japan may follow the US's overall stance and policy on China but even limited to US, UK, and Japan alone, that's quite a blow. Huawei's chances at developing 5G infra for the west have diminished further yet.

By all means we can think it's not too bad and isolated cases of a difficult situation, but I'm calling it a trend now. Reminds me of trade war chest thumping. China's worst cheerleaders were almost as idiotic as the guys on the other side announcing US victory a month in. Japan's gov paying that much for their multinationals to move out of China is unprecedented and Japan has been trading with China on relatively good terms for decades.

An attitude of magnanimity can be pretty bad. You never recognise genuine threats and acts of belligerence and just hold your head high and take the beating. China and CCP need to respond to the recent allegations and announcements. Allowing states to even propose suing China for reparations is dignifying something China's not even been close to proven guilty of. And even then, they will need to prove both that it isn't a natural virus and China did it all on purpose AND China covered it all up intentionally to spread it which again is actually untrue if you look at the timeline of how China behaved when some low level officials apparently got told in December... the theories about CCP knowing in Oct/Nov is fabricated and have zero substance or backing not even suggestions... weaker than theories of US soldiers spreading it. Anyway that is all just about impossible because it's just about surely untrue. What was the response to all the recent provocations? Nada. Some bs theories floated about a US bioweapon unleashed by soldiers/agents in Wuhan. If they're going to even suggest that, they need proof and evidence otherwise expect the counter attack to be even more vicious. Absolute idiots in charge. They know how to play the internal politics game but totally outfoxed here. I'm not shitting on the CCP, I personally think they've been pretty on top of the game for the better half of their history. I'm just saying it appears they've got no cards to play now and falling back on shipping out donations which is failing to get any goodwill because there's more talk of Chinese substandard supplies being shipped out.
 
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