Chinese Economics Thread


Chish

Junior Member
Registered Member
While the coronavirus pandemic is expected to have an unprecedented economic contraction this year, it is far from the predictions of the collapse of the economy and the Chinese government. Ironically, being the first to be hit and recovered, the pendemic actually strengthen China global trades, supply chains, manufecturings albeit slowly while the rest of the world is still in chaos. Many of the manufacturers which moved out of China for whatever reasons are now paying a higher price for their decisions. Of course China is still not out of danger yet and has a long hard road to recover, but its econmic activites is slowly starting to grow while the problems for the rest of the world is only begining.
 
While the coronavirus pandemic is expected to have an unprecedented economic contraction this year, it is far from the predictions of the collapse of the economy and the Chinese government. Ironically, being the first to be hit and recovered, the pendemic actually strengthen China global trades, supply chains, manufecturings albeit slowly while the rest of the world is still in chaos. Many of the manufacturers which moved out of China for whatever reasons are now paying a higher price for their decisions. Of course China is still not out of danger yet and has a long hard road to recover, but its econmic activites is slowly starting to grow while the problems for the rest of the world is only begining.
I think that China is the first country to pass the COVID-19 hurdle helps the recovery a lot because now other countries are in need of many things and unable to manufacture them due to their economies shutting down. China is poised to fill that void and use that surge of demand to jump-start its economy back on track.
 

Anlsvrthng

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think that China is the first country to pass the COVID-19 hurdle helps the recovery a lot because now other countries are in need of many things and unable to manufacture them due to their economies shutting down. China is poised to fill that void and use that surge of demand to jump-start its economy back on track.
There won't be any winner of the "THE global pandemic and THE global depression".

The damage of the economy is in early stages, but it is massive, and unprecedented level.

Big part of the USA customers will lose they job, same in Europe, the shops closed, supply chains collapse, and this is only the beginning.

Possible outcome can be double digit inflation in the advanced economies, and that is - again- not the worst possible outcome.

Only few weeks ago the aerospace business / jobs looked like sure bet, now they are second only in trouble to the retail.


huge number of UK workers receive paycheck for doing /making nothing, for several month, how can it NOT lead to inflation ?

It will be the case in several other economies.

So, how say the USA can pay for the import ? If the factories idle, no need for airplanes, the high tech supply chains frozen , then , what can be the benefit of selling stuff the the Americans ?
 

Chish

Junior Member
Registered Member
There won't be any winner of the "THE global pandemic and THE global depression".

The damage of the economy is in early stages, but it is massive, and unprecedented level.

Big part of the USA customers will lose they job, same in Europe, the shops closed, supply chains collapse, and this is only the beginning.

Possible outcome can be double digit inflation in the advanced economies, and that is - again- not the worst possible outcome.

Only few weeks ago the aerospace business / jobs looked like sure bet, now they are second only in trouble to the retail.


huge number of UK workers receive paycheck for doing /making nothing, for several month, how can it NOT lead to inflation ?

It will be the case in several other economies.

So, how say the USA can pay for the import ? If the factories idle, no need for airplanes, the high tech supply chains frozen , then , what can be the benefit of selling stuff the the Americans ?
There won't be any winner of the "THE global pandemic and THE global depression".

The damage of the economy is in early stages, but it is massive, and unprecedented level.

Big part of the USA customers will lose they job, same in Europe, the shops closed, supply chains collapse, and this is only the beginning.

Possible outcome can be double digit inflation in the advanced economies, and that is - again- not the worst possible outcome.

Only few weeks ago the aerospace business / jobs looked like sure bet, now they are second only in trouble to the retail.


huge number of UK workers receive paycheck for doing /making nothing, for several month, how can it NOT lead to inflation ?

It will be the case in several other economies.

So, how say the USA can pay for the import ? If the factories idle, no need for airplanes, the high tech supply chains frozen , then , what can be the benefit of selling stuff the the Americans ?
Note that he is replying in reference to my quote. He is not talking about China winning or lossing. He is talking about the World economy recovering with the possibility of China leading the charge, which is a reasonable deduction.
 

Anlsvrthng

Senior Member
Registered Member
Note that he is replying in reference to my quote. He is not talking about China winning or lossing. He is talking about the World economy recovering with the possibility of China leading the charge, which is a reasonable deduction.
Saying someone recovering earlier means the given person getting upper hand, and getting the best part of profit than the later comers.

That works in every business like this.

At the moment no country reached the bottom in the pandemic, and the economic problems only started to surface.
We are several month away from the rock bottom.

The effect on international trade not experienced by anyone yet.

It is not similar to the great depression of 30s, as it looks like it is more severe, and will have deeper impact .

It is something like a mixture of the second world war and the great depression together.
 

MrCrazyBoyRavi

Junior Member
Registered Member
Guys,
Recently bought some Luckin Coffee stocks. Its burned me pretty bad. What are the chances of its stock to go up since china is recovering from COVID 19 and nationalism feelings despite the fact that Luckin Coffee cooked the book and had shady business practises.View attachment 589200542CB9A-8BB2-4A51-AD55-C5A059D50AEF.png18610BDE-821A-45EB-9D94-ADA01A12EE28.png
 
Saying someone recovering earlier means the given person getting upper hand, and getting the best part of profit than the later comers.

That works in every business like this.

At the moment no country reached the bottom in the pandemic, and the economic problems only started to surface.
We are several month away from the rock bottom.

The effect on international trade not experienced by anyone yet.

It is not similar to the great depression of 30s, as it looks like it is more severe, and will have deeper impact .

It is something like a mixture of the second world war and the great depression together.
The fact is, China is the first country to reach a point where there are only a paltry number of cases and all are imported. Chinese factories are opened while factories in many other countries are closed. Chinese factories are in overdrive making masks and ventilators because right now demand is through the roof and that is an early boost to the manufacturing sector of the Chinese economy right out from lockdown.

That's all there is to my post; I'm not extrapolating any further or making any other comparisons.
 

Canuck place

New Member
Registered Member
Guys,
Recently bought some Luckin Coffee stocks. Its burned me pretty bad. What are the chances of its stock to go up since china is recovering from COVID 19 and nationalism feelings despite the fact that Luckin Coffee cooked the book and had shady business practises.View attachment 58920View attachment 58921View attachment 58922
At this point it's difficult to say. I read an analysis that you really have to wait it out and see what the real numbers are. They falsed increased their earning but also their expenses so net profit may not be that egregious. But at this point it's hard to determine. Sorry bud I know it sucks. I've been burned a fee times with other stocks as well. Hence why I stick to indexes now.
 

Top