Chinese Economics Thread


Junior Member
On Mar. 16, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, there are 21 new cases and 13 deaths in China (table); there are 1 new case and 12 deaths in Hubei province including Wuhan; there are 20 new cases and one death in the rest of China. All 20 new cases outside Hubei were imported from overseas. Again, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, there are 68,679 cured cases; 8,976 existing cases, and 80,881 cumulative cases (chart). China may be able to clear almost all 8,796 existing cases in the next 10-14 days.



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Chinese economy normalizing but start risks remain - IMF
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March 20, 2020, 11:01 AM CDT
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - China's economy is beginning to show some signs of normalization after the full-blown shock caused by coronavirus but stark risks remain, International Monetary Fund officials said in a blog on the economic impact of the pandemic.
Most larger Chinese firms have reopened and many local staff have returned to work but infections could rise again as national and international travel resumes, the officials said.
Outbreaks in other countries and financial market gyrations could also make consumers and firms wary of Chinese goods, just as the economy is getting back to work, they said.
The coronavirus, which has infected 250,000 people and killed more than 10,000, has wreaked havoc on the global economy. In China, the slowdown in the first quarter will be significant, leaving a deep mark on the full year, the IMF said.
"What started as a series of sudden stops in economic activity, quickly cascaded through the economy and morphed into a full-blown shock simultaneously impeding supply and demand," the IMF blog said, highlighting very weak industrial production and retail sales data in January and February.
But it said China's response thus far showed that the right policies made a difference in fighting the disease and mitigating its impact, albeit with tough economic tradeoffs.
China implemented strict constraints on movement at the national and local level at the height of the outbreak, devastating Hubei province where it originated but slowing the spread of the disease around the country, the blog said.
To mitigate the simultaneous shock caused to households, businesses, financial institutions and markets, Chinese policymakers quickly stepped in and targeted vulnerable households and small businesses, waiving social security fees, utility bills and channeling credit through fintech firms.
They also arranged subsidized credit to support scaling up production of medical equipment, backstopped interbank markets and supported firms under pressure, the blog said.
The authorities worked closely with banks too, incentivizing them to lend to smaller firms and providing targeted cuts to reserve requirements, while continuing to lend generously to larger firms and state-owned enterprises, the IMF said.
Given the ongoing economic risks, Chinese policymakers needed to be ready to continue to support growth and financial stability, if needed, and to coordinate internationally, given the global nature of the outbreak, the IMF said.
One opportunity to coordinate the international response would be through the world's 20 major economies (G20), but divisions within the group could undercut those prospects, experts say.


Junior Member
Besides restarting industrial production and the service sector, it's also very important for China to safeguard food security by carrying out a normal planting season from April to May for major summer crops.

On Mar. 20, for the 3rd day in a row, there is no new domestic new cases in China, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. All 41 new cases were imported from overseas. For the 1st time in about one and half months, severe cases dropped below 2,000 to 1,963 (table 1). There are 7 deaths nationwide, all in Hubei province. For the 5th day in a role, there is zero new suspected case in Hubei, and for the 4th day in a row, there is zero cumulative suspected case (table 2). There are 71,740 cured cases and 6,013 existing cases (chart).

Table 1:

Table 2:


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