China's strategy in Korean peninsula

kurutoga said:

What are China's options against THAAD deployment?

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Whenever China's testing a new reentry vehicle, she has to jam THAAD's radar for the few minutes during which the RV is flying. That's the counter from a purely military standpoint.

From a geopolitical standpoint, it's important to emphasise to the ROK that while they may be a vassal of the US as of this moment, it's wise for them to start being less of a vassal by growing a little bit of a spine. Yes, China understands that the ROK, as a vassal, must fulfill certain wishes of their master like tolerating tens of thousands of foreign troops on their soil, and being dragged into international spats in which they have no interest in partaking. However, if they won't even consider a small request like "don't f*cking peek at our strategic missile tests", then China, despite being understanding of the ROK's predicament of being a vassal, will start squeezing and make life difficult for them.

Essentially, China knows they can't ask drastic things from the ROK like expelling their master's troops from their soil and pursuing a truly independent foreign policy devoid of US coercion. However, that doesn't mean they have to enthusiastically bring to fruition every single trivial wish of the White House. THAAD contributes little to the US' national security but it is a serious threat to China's national security. With that in mind, for this specific matter, the ROK should take greater heed of China's concerns than her master's. But they're not even willing to do that. They literally are pushovers, allowing the US to make their country a target for a Chinese nuclear attack by functioning as a base from which the US is able to operate equipment to spy on China's nuclear weapons. This is something China must get into ROK's thick skulls; "we know you're not used to standing up for yourselves but we really need you to just this once. If you don't stop undermining our nuclear deterrence, you will be nuked if the we ever get into a nuclear exchange with the Americans. As a sign of our determination, here are some economic sanctions to cripple a few of your firms."

jobjed said:

Whenever China's testing a new reentry vehicle, she has to jam THAAD's radar for the few minutes during which the RV is flying. That's the counter from a purely military standpoint.

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China better makes a meaningful response otherwise Vietnam and others will just copy. If there is no way to co-exist THAAD, a permanent counter measure must be put in place.

I expect SK MoD or news outlet to reveal how THAAD radars deployed in SK performed in detecting and tracking the latest NK missile launch. It would be interesting to know.

Those sources were eager to tell the launches past and now, but seems to be very quite to say "we saw it lift off, and we tracked it all the way to the splash". I am not questioning those radars did detect at certain point of time and tracked afterwards. I am interested in the reason the silence of news.

kurutoga said:

China better makes a meaningful response otherwise Vietnam and others will just copy. If there is no way to co-exist THAAD, a permanent counter measure must be put in place.

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Unless a war is declared on SK (that is peaceful time and now), China can not do much. In case of escalation of tension when China anticipate a confrontation with US is imminent (not necessarily nuclear exchange, but say conventional and Guam), China may choose to preemptively knock out these THAAD installations without further actions (wait and see act). Although this act would indicate a potential Chinese attack, but is still one step short of the real target (US target) or a final show down. It is risky, but US knows that risk when delivered THAAD in SK. A retaliation from US to Chinese target would not make much difference when China is already cornered.

I think that is also the official and openly announced Russian position towards the anti-missile installations in Eastern Europe. The only difference between China and Russia (preemptive act) is that Russia say it loud, China say it behind doors.

Do what the US does... arm the enemy of my enemy with "defensive" weapons.

taxiya said:

Unless a war is declared on SK (that is peaceful time and now), China can not do much. In case of escalation of tension when China anticipate a confrontation with US is imminent (not necessarily nuclear exchange, but say conventional and Guam), China may choose to preemptively knock out these THAAD installations without further actions (wait and see act). Although this act would indicate a potential Chinese attack, but is still one step short of the real target (US target) or a final show down. It is risky, but US knows that risk when delivered THAAD in SK. A retaliation from US to Chinese target would not make much difference when China is already cornered.

I think that is also the official and openly announced Russian position towards the anti-missile installations in Eastern Europe. The only difference between China and Russia (preemptive act) is that Russia say it loud, China say it behind doors.

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Think how Kennedy handled Cuban Missile Crisis without declaring war but providing enough threats.

kurutoga said:

Think how Kennedy handled Cuban Missile Crisis without declaring war but providing enough threats.

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I'm thinking of the strategic effect of THAAD.

Whilst it will be able to provide missile defence against North Korea, in the event of a US-China, it could be detrimental to South Korea's interests.

If China wants to drag the US into a land war in the Korean peninsula, then THAAD is valid target.

And remember that the US/SK cannot hope to conquer and occupy China, whilst China can hope to conquer and occupy the Korean peninsula.

kurutoga said:

Think how Kennedy handled Cuban Missile Crisis without declaring war but providing enough threats.

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I don't quite understand your parallel of Cuban missile crisis with THAAD. Are you suggesting that China openly making the threat of knocking out THAAD which China does not? If so, I think we will have to live with the difference between Chinese quite and Russian/US "threatening loud" approach.

We apparently disagree with the approaches. The disagreement is only in wording, not in action, making threat open or behind doors are still all rhetoric, not the possible knocking. It is about different choices out of different strategic cultural. China is not Russia nor USA (the two are much more closer in case of behavior) and will never be.

I guess your are of Chinese heritage or Chinese citizen but preferring western/Russian behavior (intimidating/aggressive). Personally, I believe and hope China will keep her own way. I have no interest and apparently Xi is not interest either in emulating how Kennedy handled Cuban crisis or how Putin handles anti-missile installations.

P.S. I think in case of Cuban crisis, we need to consider the US nuclear missile in Turkey. But that is a separate discussion.

taxiya said:

I don't quite understand your parallel of Cuban missile crisis with THAAD. Are you suggesting that China openly making the threat of knocking out THAAD which China does not? If so, I think we will have to live with the difference between Chinese quite and Russian/US "threatening loud" approach.

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Yes, China is serious about this entire issue because THAAD weakens, among other things, China's second-strike capability. In fact it is national security issue of life or death of the entire Chinese civilization. If diplomacy fails (and it looks it will), China will have no choice but to apply military pressure. As of today, THAAD breaks the balance of nuclear deterrence, this topic will continue to escalate until a solution is reached.

If you do not trust me, try deploy a large X-band radar somewhere near America and see how they respond (basically that would look like the Cuba Missile incident)

kurutoga said:

Yes, China is serious about this entire issue because THAAD weakens, among other things, China's second-strike capability. In fact it is national security issue of life or death of the entire Chinese civilization. If diplomacy fails (and it looks it will), China will have no choice but to apply military pressure. As of today, THAAD breaks the balance of nuclear deterrence, this topic will continue to escalate until a solution is reached.

If you do not trust me, try deploy a large X-band radar somewhere near America and see how they respond (basically that would look like the Cuba Missile incident)

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THAAD will surely weaken China's 2nd strike capability IF NOT being neutralized before hand.

However I don't think there is a disagreement about that. I have suggested "preemptively knock out THAAD when China sense a confrontation with US is eminent". When THAAD is neutralized, everything is back to square one in that US has lost the early warning advantage that THAAD provided. US will then faces the choice of nuclear first strike just because THAAD is knocked, or same game as without THAAD.

What we disagree is apparently about how to put that threat in the ears of SK. Openly as you suggested or behind doors as I suggested. You seem also suggest (by suggesting Cuban crisis) some kind of physical blockade. I see it unnecessary, the reason is in the paragraph above.

THAAD is primarily useful against a surprise first-strike, be it NK or China. It gives the US, SK, Japan and Australia a precious 5 to 10 minutes early warning of incoming missile, and even able to knock it in the accenting stage. But it is useless against a nuclear non first use doctrine (China) when THAAD itself becomes the target of a "first" conventional strike. It is in the same way as GPS and satellite, they are useful against anyone who can't reach them (including China 10 or 20 years ago), but useless against China today. After both sides have shot down each others' satellite, both will be fighting wars like WWII.