China's strategy in Korean peninsula

Jura said:

I happened to notice (I think the title does it, just in case here's the link which is AirForceMag:

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it's dated
8/18/2017)
Dunford: Exercises With South Korea Will Continue

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China demanded on Wednesday that the United States immediately withdraw

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on companies and individuals trading with North Korea, saying such punitive measures will damage Sino-U.S. ties.

The Treasury Department imposed sanctions Tuesday on

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from China and Russia it said had conducted business with North Korea in ways that advanced the country’s missile and nuclear weapons program.

But China’s Foreign Ministry insisted that its government had fully implemented U.N. Security Council resolutions on North Korea and would punish anyone caught violating the Security Council sanctions under Chinese law.

It added that it opposed sanctions outside the framework of the Security Council.

“China especially opposes any country conducting ‘long-arm jurisdiction’ over Chinese entities and individuals,” spokeswoman Hua Chunying said at a routine news conference. “Measures taken by the United States are not helpful in solving the problem and unhelpful to mutual trust and cooperation. We ask the United States to stop the relevant wrong practices immediately.”

Yet despite China’s professed opposition to unilateral sanctions, it has not hesitated to punish other countries through trade if they refuse to do Beijing’s bidding.

Indeed, China is engaged in a major blockade of South Korean companies because it opposes the deployment of a U.S. missile defense system, known as Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD), in South Korea.

Among the sanctioned Chinese companies was Dandong Zhicheng Metallic Material, also known as Dandong Chengtai, one of the largest importers of North Korean coal, while its main shareholder also was individually targeted.

In a related complaint filed by the Justice Department on Tuesday, the U.S. government is seeking $4 million from the company, accusing it of importing North Korean coal and then sending an array of products — cellphones, luxury items, rubber and sugar — to North Korea.

In August, the Security Council agreed to a total ban on coal imports from North Korea; in the past, a limited trade had been allowed, provided the coal was not purchased from a sanctioned North Korean company and proven to be for “livelihood purposes.”

In practice, though, experts say that loophole was exploited to facilitate a profitable trade that generated $1 billion a year for North Korea.

In a June report by the Washington-based

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, Dandong Zhicheng was cited among those Chinese companies that are pivotal to North Korea’s ability to circumvent international sanctions and buy illicit goods. The report said targeting those companies could cause North Korea’s entire overseas network to collapse.

Dandong Zhicheng alone accounted for 9.2 percent of North Korea’s total exports to China last year, according to documentation that C4ADS reviewed. Almost all — 97 percent — of this was North Korean coal, totaling about $250 million annually.

The company’s website says it has several interests, including metals, chemicals, rubber, furniture, computing equipment, office supplies, clothing and toys. It says it does a “small amount of business” in North Korean border trade.

The company’s main shareholder, Chi Yupeng, won an award from the Dandong city government as a leading entrepreneur in 2005, another award for his “remarkable contribution to enterprise” in 2008 and a third for “starting a foreign trade enterprise” in 2009.

Two other Chinese companies, Dandong Tianfu Trade and Jinhou International Holdings, were sanctioned for their part in the coal trade. Together, the three companies imported nearly $500 million of North Korean coal between 2013 and 2016, the Treasury Department said.

Dandong Rich Earth Trading was sanctioned for buying vanadium ore from a company tied to North Korea’s atomic energy agency, while Mingzheng International Trading was accused of facilitating dollar transactions on behalf of North Korea’s proliferation network.

The companies either declined to comment, hung up or did not pick up the phone when contacted by The Washington Post. The Dandong city government also declined to comment.

The Global Times, a nationalist tabloid, argued that the United States could face retaliation sooner or later if it continued to impose sanctions that were a “serious violation of international law” and “certainly unacceptable” to China.

“As far as we are concerned, Washington wants to use such unilateral sanctions to smear China and Russia’s international image on issues regarding sanctioning North Korea, painting China and Russia as the destroyers of U.N. sanctions,” it wrote.

Chen Weihua, deputy editor of the U.S. edition of China Daily, also argued that the U.S. decision would undermine cooperation between Washington and Beijing.

“The U.S. has long believed that sanctions are a silver bullet,” he wrote in a column. “But its past track records have shown that the majority of sanctions not only failed but caused humanitarian disasters in other countries.”

There is little doubt, he added, that such secondary sanctions will have little or no effect in persuading North Korea to change course.

Chen also wrote that the Obama administration’s decision to help topple Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi after he abandoned his nuclear weapons program — and his subsequent death at the hands of a mob in 2011 — had damaged the U.S. government’s credibility.

Beijing is not averse to using economic pressure to get its way: It drastically cut salmon imports from Norway for years after imprisoned democracy activist Liu Xiabo was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, has encouraged consumer boycotts of Japan and punished countries for hosting the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader.

Nevertheless, Lu Chao, a Korean Peninsula expert at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, said Washington’s decision to impose unilateral sanctions on China was inappropriate, unacceptable and “very domineering.”

“China is strictly implementing the U.N. resolution. Though we can’t 100 percent exclude the possibility of individuals having underground deals violating the Ministry of Commerce’s regulations, the United States being so far away doesn’t have a proper reason to take sanction measures unilaterally,” he said. “They should inform the Chinese government and let the latter deal with it.”

China accounts for roughly 90 percent of North Korean trade but announced this month that it was suspending imports of iron ore, iron, lead, coal and seafood products from North Korea, to comply with U.N. sanctions.

China’s imports from North Korea fell to $880 million in the six months that ended in June, down 13 percent from a year earlier, official figures show. But Chinese exports rose 29 percent to $1.67 billion in the first six months of the year, pushing total trade between the two countries up 10 percent.

China is reluctant to do anything that might destabilize the regime, which is a long-standing ally. It says U.S. hostility toward Pyongyang forced the regime to develop its nuclear program, and it urges dialogue to reduce tensions.

Yang Xiyu, a North Korea expert at the China Institute of International Studies in Beijing, called the U.S. move counterproductive and said Washington should have worked more closely with Beijing.

“I think this shows the frustration from the U.S. toward Beijing, that China won’t play as the U.S. wanted,” he said, arguing that it would do nothing to dissuade North Korea from pursuing nuclear weapons. “It’s a superfluous measure that may only worsen the Sino-U. S. relationship and destroy the foundation of trust for cooperation between the two countries.”

Cheng Xiaohe, a North Korea expert at Renmin University of China in Beijing, said the U.S. government did not have factual evidence that these companies were violating sanctions.

“The Chinese government will not sit by and do nothing if the sanctions are implemented without strong evidence,” he said.

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Pyongyang missile footage is a dagger to Xi's throat
A coup plot, a wiretap and an execution have left blood allies with no trust
August 21, 2017 8:01 am JST

KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei senior staff writer

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TOKYO -- Once touted as a "friendship cemented in blood," the relations between Beijing and Pyongyang have deteriorated to new lows -- perhaps to a point from which they cannot be salvaged.

The roots of mistrust stem back to the execution of Jang Song Thaek, the uncle of North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un, in 2013, and the rift has intensified as the relationship was intertwined with the power struggles on the Chinese side.

"Our new ballistic missile can strike anywhere in China." The words of a North Korean top official spoken at a recent internal gathering have traveled across the border and reached the ears of Chinese side.

While the world frets over North Korea's threat to target the waters around the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam, home to the Andersen Air Force Base, the fact that the whole of China now falls in Pyongyang's crosshairs is a consequential piece of the puzzle.

Unexpected footage

On May 21, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un witnessed the launch of a Pukguksong-2 solid-fuel, medium-range ballistic missile from Pukchang in the country's South Pyongan Province.

The newly developed missile was equipped with a small camera to capture in-flight footage. With great fanfare, the state-run Korean Central Television released an extended video of the flight the following day.

Bizarrely, while the missile was heading east towards the Sea of Japan, the footage focused on the west, back towards Chinese territory for an unusually long time, according to military experts.

"You can clearly see the Liaodong Peninsula, where Dalian and Lushun are located, " one expert on Korea explained. "Towards the west of the peninsula is the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea is to the south. The footage would have also shown the capital Beijing if not for thick clouds." Despite the clouds, the message was clear.

"Kim Jong Un is threatening Xi Jinping," the same source said. "The intercontinental ballistic missiles Hwasong-12 and 14 are designed to target the U.S., but the medium-range Pukguksong-2 is meant for ranges that include Beijing." Kim has apparently ordered mass production of the Pukguksongs.

From a technological perspective, North Korea launching a precise, targeted strike on a mainland U.S. target remains extremely difficult. Targeting Beijing or Shanghai accurately is not.

A separate source said that Kim Jong Un considers possessing a nuclear weapon would enable North Korea to avoid becoming a semi-colony of China. Despite sanctions, North Korea depends heavily on China for oil and many other goods. The country's markets are awash with Chinese-made products.

"With nuclear weapons and various ballistic missiles, North Korea can speak to China on an equal footing, even if it cannot compete economically," the source explained.

Ultimately, by establishing diplomatic relations with the U.S., Pyongyang could be free from its dependence on China.

Watershed

Relations between Beijing and Pyongyang began to sour around five years ago. The purge of two influential figures -- one on each side of the Yalu river -- were the trigger.

The drama began on Aug. 17, 2012 with a meeting in Beijing between Kim Jong Un's uncle Jang Song Thaek, who served as a conduit between the two countries, and then-Chinese President Hu Jintao.

According to three sources, Jang is said to have proposed a plot to oust Kim Jong Un and replace him with his elder half-brother Kim Jong Nam with China's backing.

It was a dramatic proposal, but Hu was not in a position to give a definitive answer. Just days before, at the annual Beidaihe gathering with party elders, his predecessor and rival Jiang Zemin had exposed a scandal involving Hu's right-hand man Ling Jihua, severely weakening Hu's position. Ling's playboy son had died in a speeding Ferrari when it crashed into a wall on Beijing's North Fourth Ring Road.

Hu avoided giving Jang an immediate answer and said he would discuss the matter among China's top leadership.

The other figure was Zhou Yongkang, a former member of the Politburo Standing Committee --China's top decision-making body -- and a close aide to former President Jiang Zemin. Zhou controlled China's internal security apparatus, including the Ministry of State Security and the police.

During the regime of Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un's father, Zhou built an extensive network of connections in North Korea and continued to communicate with the younger Kim after he took power.

Having learned of Jang's plot through a wiretap, Zhou secretly informed Kim Jong Un, purportedly through Ma Jian, a senior official at the Ministry of State Security, who later fell victim to President Xi's anti-corruption campaign. It was a move to strengthen his foothold in his own political battles.

Upon hearing of the treachery, the North Korean leader flew into a rage and at the end of 2013, his uncle was executed. Kim Jong Nam, the elder brother who Jang had favored, was murdered with a super-toxic nerve agent at Kuala Lumpur International airport on February 13 this year.

Zhou was placed under surveillance and officially detained around the same time as Jang's execution. But the Chinese authorities delayed announcement of his detention until the summer of the following year in order to conceal any link between the two cases.

Zhou was eventually sentenced to life in jail. A closer look at his case shows that he was charged with bribery, abuse of power and "intentionally leaking state secrets."

The fact that part of China's leadership was discussing his removal, and that his ally Zhou was purged, led Kim to establish an intense mistrust towards China.

In early August, Beijing voted in favor of imposing new sanctions on North Korea in response to two ICBM tests in July. Furthermore, in a show of force aimed at both the U.S. and North Korea, Beijing conducted massive live-ammunition combat drills in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea in early August.

Intervention

China's frustration with North Korea was revealed in a commentary that was published on Aug 11 on the Global Times, a newspaper affiliated with the People's Daily, the mouthpiece of the Communist Party.

"China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten U.S. soil first and the U.S. retaliates," the piece read, "China will stay neutral."

"If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so," it went on.

North Korea remains an ally of China, formally at least. Even as bilateral ties sour, the 1961 Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance has not been abandoned.

Under the treaty, China has an obligation to come to North Korea's aid with "all necessary measures," if it comes under attack from the U.S. The Global Times' declaration of neutrality tells the world that the obligation is in effect void.

Kim has not made a single visit to China since becoming North Korean leader. The Jang and Zhou cases have played their part, but so too has confrontation over the future of the countries' bilateral security treaty.

Yet the Global Times commentary did not rule out the possibility of military intervention. It made clear that China would be resolute in preventing upheaval on the Korean Peninsula.

China intervened in the 1950-1953 Korean War when U.S. and South Korea forces, which had initially been in an inferior position, turned the tables and closed in on North Korea's border with China. In protecting the North, the Chinese military lost an estimated 180,000 soldiers.

This time, if U.S. troops set foot on North Korean soil, Chinese troops will also probably cross into the country to secure Chinese interests and prevent an influx of refugees while avoiding a head-on confrontation with the U.S.

One Chinese security source said, "China has the option of sending troops about 100 kilometers across the border and creating a 'neutral zone.'"

Meanwhile, although he has warned North Korea it would "be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen," U.S. President Donald Trump cannot easily strike Pyongyang militarily, considering the significant backlash the attack could trigger.

The dangerous game of chicken that the U.S., China and North Korea have gotten themselves into shows no sign of ending.

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AndrewS said:

I would say this article is reliable.

The events described happened 4 years ago, so enough time has passed for them to be spoken about. And it would explain why Fatty Kim went to the extreme of having his own uncle killed, and also why the Chinese Politburo purged one of its members despite convention dictating otherwise.

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kurutoga said:

The part about Zhou Yong Kang is political tabloid. When the day comes where can little Kim go? Mongolia? If he wants to cut the bridges with China, he is digging his own grave.

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AndrewS said:

It depends on how crazy Kim is. Sigh

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AndrewS said:

I would say this article is reliable.

The events described happened 4 years ago, so enough time has passed for them to be spoken about. And it would explain why Fatty Kim went to the extreme of having his own uncle killed, and also why the Chinese Politburo purged one of its members despite convention dictating otherwise.

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