China's strategy in Korean peninsula

I

Inst

Captain
You have to remember, the North Korean border is porous and there's a reasonable chance the North Koreans smuggled a nuke into their Beijing embassy. China is somewhat constrained.
 
Equation

Equation

Lieutenant General
Inst said:
You have to remember, the North Korean border is porous and there's a reasonable chance the North Koreans smuggled a nuke into their Beijing embassy. China is somewhat constrained.
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It's not like the DMZ line but not as porous as you think either. North Korea smuggling a nuke into China can be detected easily given that their nuke technology are not as advanced. Ok fantasy over, back to the subject matter.
 
Deino

Deino

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China Threatens To Bomb North Korea's Nuclear Facilities If It Crosses Beijing's "Bottom Line"

by Tyler Durden

With everyone putting down new and/or revised "red lines", be it on Syria or North Korea, it was now China's turn to reveal its "red" or rather "bottom line", and in a harshly worded editorial titled "The United States Must Not Choose a Wrong Direction to Break the DPRK Nuclear Deadlock on Wednesday" Beijing warned it would attack North Korea's facilities producing nuclear bombs, effectively engaging in an act of war, if North Korea crosses China's "bottom line."

The editorial in the military-focused Global Times tabloid, owned and operated by the Communist Party's People's Daily newspaper, said that North Korea’s nuclear activities must not jeopardize northeastern China, and that if the North impacts China with its illicit nuclear tests through either "nuclear leakage or pollution", then China will respond with force.

“China has a bottom line that it will protect at all costs, that is, the security and stability of northeast China... If the bottom line is touched, China will employ all means available including the military means to strike back. By that time, it is not an issue of discussion whether China acquiesces in the US’ blows, but the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will launch attacks to DPRK nuclear facilities on its own."

This, as the editorial puts it, is the "bottom line" for China; should it be crossed China will employ all means available including the military means to strike back," warned the editorial.

It is worth noting is that shortly after publication, the article seems to have been retracted without explanation, the URL now returning a "404" error. However not before the original article was cached on a webpage owned by China Military, courtesy of google.

In the editorial, the author also declared that the "People's Liberation Army (PLA) will launch attacks to DPRK nuclear facilities on its own. A strike to nuclear facilities of the DPRK is the best military means in the opinion of the outside world." The northeastern Chinese provinces of Liaoning and Jilin share borders with North Korea. These two provinces and Heilongjiang are part of the Shenyang Military Region, one of seven military regions of the People's Liberation Army.

The editorial also explained the advantages to the world of a Chinese attack on North Korea's nuclear facilities.

It noted China and the world know the locations of North Korea's nuclear facilities. Once the PLA attacks these nuclear sites, North Korea will permanently suspend its nuclear weapons programs.
North Korea "has limited resources of nuclear materials and is strictly blockaded in the outside world, erasing the possibility for DPRK to get the materials again."

China also noted that "nuclear weapons is DPRK's trump card for its defiance of China and the United States. Once this card is lost, it will become obedient immediately."

The author then speculated rhetorically that if North Korea's "nuclear facilities are destroyed, they will not even fight back, but probably block the news to fool its domestic people. The DPRK will freak out if its nuclear facilities are destroyed." And yes, a Chinese author said "freak out."

The report also said that "the DPRK must not fall into the turmoil to send a large number of refugees, it is not allowed to have a government that is hostile against China on the other side of the Yalu River, and the US military must not push forward its forces to the Yalu River.” It notes that "this sentence is meant for the United States, because the premise of it is that the US military has launched attacks to the DPRK."

But what may be the most notable part of the oped is the mention in the Global Times editorial that North Korea will not be "not allowed to have a government that is hostile against China on the other side of the Yalu River." This implies that if and when the US initiate strikes on NK, the Chinese PLA will likely send out troops "to lay the foundation" for a favorable post-war situation.

In other words, China may be just waiting for Trump to "decapitate" the North Korean regime, to pounce and immediately fill the power vacuum.
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vesicles

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Deino said:
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In my opinion, this was a warning to the NK as well as the US.

It's been a huge myth that the NK is under the Chinese influence. The NK has been "hostile" to China for some time. I've heard stories of NK govn't systematically demolishing monuments commemorating the Chinese contribution to the Korean War. IMHO, China has been held hostage by the NK, in the form of the threat that, if the NK collapse, refugees will flood into China and negatively impact Chinese economy and security. Additionally, China would lose NK as a buffer zone. As such, China has been held back and hesitates to do anything that could potentially affect NK stability. China may be beginning to feel that enough is enough. The NK needs to be taught a lesson now. This piece might be aimed to warn the NK: "Stop the BS, or face the hammer".

On the other hand, China is looking at an extremely unpredictable Trump and thinking that there might actually be a chance that Trump is crazy enough to actually attack the NK. This is obviously very bad for China. This piece is also acting as a warning to the US: "if you attack, we will attack too". And "we will take advantage of the situation and create an even more China-friendly NK govn't", which might potentially renders the US attack moot.

At the same time, China is also telling the world that there won't be a second Korean War, where the US and China would fight each other in Korea. Not like that at all. Instead, in the case of a US attack, China will swoop in and take over the control of NK. This scenario might even be worse for the US since NK will be formally and completely under China's control, which pushes China's influence directly across the Korea peninsula.

My 2-cent...
 
T

taxiya

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:confused1:
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My take to that article is LOL for 5 minutes.

Ok, seriously. It is suggested by fyjs members that it is this kind of news/articles/posts/opinion pieces in cjdby BBS that caused its shut down and house cleaning. The suggestion went like "the talk of big BOSS and leading the pace". Big BOSS is Xi, the talk is about his visit to Trump, the leading the pace is a coded word meaning someone trying to stealthily spread, lead and cultivate an opinion (against the state) in China through internet BBS, sites or paper media. Specifically this time right before cjdby's shut down, I have fund lots of threads and posts about "China should dump/trade/remove NK/Kim" and "China agrees/supports/understands Trump bombing Syria" in cjdby BBS compared with zero in fyjs. Now cjdby is shut down meaning the MOD team was not liked by security agents. That is "lead the pace".

My conclusion is that the zero hedge article is the same as the many posts in cjdby BBS, a copy/passing of the same source from SK and US media, same as the artillery execution and dog eating execution or Russia dumping China for Trump (few month ago).
 
I

Inst

Captain
From appearances, North Korea nuke tech is roughly around the level of the United States around the 1940s. Fat Man and Little Boy can both fit in a container vessel, and given the pervasiveness of North Korean presence in China, there's myriads of places the North Koreans can hide a nuclear weapon. Getting one into an embassy is a far more difficult task, I suppose.
 
AssassinsMace

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
China obeying the US is a lose-lose situation for themselves and a win-win for the US. If China followed US sanctions to its fullest, North Korea would see China as an enemy and turn some of its nukes toward China and that's fine with the US and its allies. If North Korea collapses for any reason and US and South Korean forces move in, China has an enemy at its gates. That's why the US has never entertained any of China's concerns because everything as is favors the US. The only way China can spoil it is if there is a conflict or the NK government collapse and thus US invades is for China to invade from the other side as well. Is the US going to hypocritically cry Chinese aggression? The US starts the conflict, they will be softening North Korea for China to move in. Thus China now has leverage.
 
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