China's strategy in Afghanistan.


davidau

Junior Member
Registered Member
You can melt into the population or you can launch attacks. You can try doing both, but it’s incredibly hard to do so without being caught, not least because by the very act of launching attacks, you put a bullseye on where you have been/are still based.

The Taliban could pull that trick on the US because the US didn’t have organic humint or persistent local level presence. So when the US soldiers came asking locals who was launching attacks, no one would give them them time of day. You think locals would be so hostile to the Taliban? If they were the Americans would never have been driven out




Wannabe terrorists and revolutionaries are a dime a dozen, but how many have the means and will to carry out meaningful attacks, and the skill and discipline to remain undetected while doing so who are on America’s side? If America had such a vast and effective local force, they sure showed amazing restraint on never ever using it even once


So how many bombs have gone off since the Taliban takeover? Not one a week I don’t think.

As i said, it’s not remotely as easy as you seem to think. Especially when the state sponsors of such terror don’t have actual land boarders to support such attacks.

No foreign sponsored revolution/terror campaign have ever succeeded under such circumstances.


True enough that governing is much harder, but we are not talking about governing, we are talking about finding and killing hostile enemy assets. Which I think you are vastly underestimating the Taliban’s effectiveness at.

That’s basically the holy grail of the American occupation effects, to create and grass roots organic local resistance to the Taliban that can stand up to them. Having failed so miserably at this task when they were in country and calling all the shots, what makes you think they can magically pull of this trick now that they have zero physical presence in country?

Let’s see how many actually has the balls to stick their heads up and do something to the Taliban. And how quickly the Taliban literally chop their heads off when they do.

Who ever said there would be zero Chinese casualties? The question isn’t one of whether China can avoid loosing anyone, if that was indeed the objective, then of course China is better off staying at home. The question is whether China, together with active support from the Taliban, can effectively safeguard any potential future Chinese investments and projects inside Afghanistan, to which the answer is very much yes.

Furthermore, any foreign sponsored terrorist attacks against Chinese assets in Afghanistan is almost certainly going to lead to vastly greater losses of deployed assets for said foreign state sponsor(s) of terror.

American CIA operatives and special forces were effectively untouchable in places like Syria because of the US military hard power in the AO, which gives them ultimate escalation dominance. If the Syrians or Russians tried to move of those US assets, they will get spanked hard by the might of the US military.

What is the US gonna do when China drops thousand pound bombs on any CIA missions or SpecOp FoBs in or around Afghanistan when said assets had just drawn first blood against Chinese forces in country?

That’s the unavoidable catch 22, state sponsorship of terrorism isn’t something you can do over zoom. You either need people on the ground to run your little state terror sponsorship deal, or you might as well set all your terror sponsorship money on fire because locals are going to flock to take your money and no one is going to actually go do any terrorism. Because they like living and don’t want to be killed painfully by the Taliban. You put boots on the ground without the means to protect them and those boots on the ground end up as stars on walls and headstones in military cemeteries.

Thats why all past successful foreign sponsored terrorism/revolutionary movements needed active support from a powerful land neighbour. Neither the US or India have that, which means any terrorism they do manage to incite will only be on the scale of annoyance rather than actual existential threat.
Thanks for your analyise. Great stuff.
 

Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
trying to recover a little bit of their lost youth and fun?
They have my sympathy, for they have known only fighting and death since their birth.
OTOH, this photo-op is a good opportunity to show the outside world that the Taliban fighters have human flesh and blood and a fun side to them, they are not Frankensteins. Good PR work.
 

Arnies

New Member
Registered Member
What do you people think about this article?

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The article is from an Indian which means it is basically fantasy. The US can't afford to play spoiler because it will lose allies elsewhere hence they will keep distance this is entirely the Indians itching for it but they can't really play any spoilers as IEA has consolidated itself already.

The US don't play silly politics because this could give anti-US blocs expansion at the behest of the US policies. The US doesn't want to lose further face and allies in the region accidently leading to expanding the Chinese bloc and giving more ground to China. Hence the US will stay out of it and they didn't even officially release any statements on Panjshir after exiting which tells you the Americans are not interested because they don't want to give ground to the chinese and increase their populaity in the region and allies
 
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Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
India is increasingly a liability for Asian security; the SCO is now a defunct organisation with India inside it, hence why China, Russia et al had seperate talks excluding India.
if I remember correctly, it was the Russians who brought India into SCO to counter the influence of China.
Is Putin regretting that decision ??
the best that can happen to SCO is that India may feel disenfranchised and loses interest and withdraws from the organisation.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Senior Member
Registered Member
if I remember correctly, it was the Russians who brought India into SCO to counter the influence of China.
Is Putin regretting that decision ??
the best that can happen to SCO is that India may feel disenfranchised and loses interest and withdraws from the organisation.
Nah..perhaps China is employing the maxim of "keep your friends close and keep your enemies closer." This way, India remaining part of SCO could still proved to be useful for the organization.
 

Nobaron

Junior Member
Registered Member
Bigger problem is that the Taliban broke all its agreements with the Americans and can't really be trusted to adhere to normal modern agreements.
The irony. Taliban who drove out invading Americans from Afghanistan is supposed to take lessons about honouring agreements, like India did with their British lords & has been whining about it ever since. If US would invade India, Indians would have been like.....ooowwyaaa pleaseeeee take us....we lobbb youuu.....
 
Nonsense, as expected from you.
Your expectations against everyone else's.
The farmers are still their blocking roads and making commutes longer for the locals . The police was on the other hand over forgiving while some farmers tried their best to incite violence by driving their tractors over barricades and towards the police.
So basically, nobody shot arrows or threw molotovs like in Hong Kong, eh? But much more violence from the Indian police than in Hong Kong.
Compare this to how Chinese police and army handled the tianeman square protest - massacre.
Compare to what? Why not compare 2020 to 2021? Why compare 1989? Is it because India's 30+ years behind China? LOL
Hk is marginally chinese , only physically under you but the locals call the mainlanders locusts.
It is a Chinese city with no dispute in the world. It used to be poisoned by foreign influence to make Chinese people against Chinese people but the CCP is cleaning that up and making China better like it always is.
I was in hk in 2019 and saw the protests 1st hand.
Oh, so you know how restrained the police where even when assaulted with deadly weapons.
About aid , you are just lying so wont respond.
I'm lying that India receives immense COVID aid or lying that China gives aid? Your response or lack of has no bearing on the truth.
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Ppl use the Chinese vaccine but dont have any faith in it.
That's because you're ignorant on Chinese people. I would like Sinovac but have no choice but to choose between American vaccines that have heavy side effects and little actual protection against Delta. How come Indians have so much faith in Chinese phones?
Its like any Chinese product - if it works , you are lucky.
I guess I'm very very lucky as all my Chinese stuff works. The world must be really really lucky or really really stupid because China is the biggest exporting nation. On the other hand, as with any Indian product, if it exists, you are very lucky.
And about agreements- even during the height of brutal wars , some treaties and agreements are preserved.
I don't understand upholding "agreements" you were forced into by invading countries. There is no mutual combat; it is the US attacking a small defenseless nation killing civilians with drones and telling them to "abide" by "agreements". They deserve as much honor as this shows. And they got it too; they got the boot and left with nothing. You might not agree because you have confused Stockhold Syndrome with "understanding."
Dont expect you lot to understand with your indoctrination.
What indoctrination? You say most people here are based in Western countries and then you accuse them of Chinese indoctrination? LOL When you believe opposite to what your environment persuades you to, that's called free thought. Your failure to recognize this and assumption that those who agree with the Chinese view must be indoctrinated represents true indoctrination.
 
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