China's strategic vulnerabilities


KYli

Junior Member
China was pity upon and hated in the 90s at the same time. I still remember being called a little commies when I don't even know the meaning of communism. Of course, most people were sympathetic to those poor Chinese that lived under oppression.
 

Mt1701d

Junior Member
Registered Member
The problem is that your entire argument is that

1) A large population by itself is not sufficient to be a great power

I argue this is true yes, but it is necessary. Proportionately a small population will only mean you can be a subordinate power.

2) India will never be able to industrialize

I would argue that you underestimate India. India is a great country with very smart people.

You say they will never be able to have manufacturing out of China and into India, but
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.

India's steel output by 2018 was 2nd the world, ahead of Japan and the United States.

Between 2010-2017, India's Internet users increased from 8% of the population to 34% of the population.

India is rising.



So it is a burden and a blessing, China's economy would be just as good with a population of 500 million? 100 million? 10 million?
Yes a sufficiently large enough population is necessary and no one is suggesting China's population to drop so dramatically, and it probably never barring some huge disaster, further the population of other advanced countries will most likely drop to unsustainable level long before that happens. Also while we are at it, the US has only about 1/4 of the population of China and yet for almost 100 years was the most powerful economy, because they were able to use their citizen to generate wealth. China is rising because that have tapped into and successfully use this resource.

I never said India will never industrialize, don't put words in my mouth, i am saying that the time to that possibility is closing in. I said and I quote "having the major sections of manufacturing" and "in the foreseeable future", one manufacturer that is planning on assembling the their next product is hardly a major section of manufacturing. The steel industries is a good starting point as it will be necessary for infrastructure and construction so good on them, the problem next is turning the steel into usable things, if they are exporting most of it then it will mean very little in the long run. 8% to 34% internet usage is also good and means they are heading in the right directly.

Like I said I am not saying and had never said they are not rising but the window for using a mass, unskilled labor force as an advantage is closing, once closed, the journey to a richer high tech country will be much harder then it is now. Also of the manufacturing that has left China only 5% went to India, they are compete with other countries as well, it is not their playground to do with as they wish.
 

gadgetcool5

New Member
Registered Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #84
No, the US loved China back in the day. :D
dengxiaoping.jpg

US wanted to welcome China as a great power, develop China's economy. At the same time the US would profit China would profit. It was a great win-win for 30 years. Eventually China was going to surpass the US under this system. Everyone knew this and actually the US was ok with it. All the US wanted in return was for China to become
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in the world order and liberalize gradually.

Instead China became a hypernationalist authoritarian power that became even more hardline. So the US realized it made a mistake, it built up its own competitor and created its own monster by its own hand. That is why the US hates China so much now, because it loved it before. The bad news for China is that the US still has the clout to seriously damage and stop China's rise.
 

AssassinsMace

Brigadier
How come the anti-China "crowd" in here doesn't want to explain how did China become the second most powerful country in the world when all the important countries hated China? The everyone hates you excuse has been used a long time because it covers up how their reason for hate is really based on something wrong with them like jealousy, envy, nationalism, racial supremacy, etc... "Everyone hates you..." makes it out that there's something wrong with you and not them. China being the second most powerful country and threatening to take the crown from number one shows being liked is irrelevant. Why are Americans so insecure when they're supposed to be the most liked by that logic?
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
No, the US loved China back in the day. :D
View attachment 61331

US wanted to welcome China as a great power, develop China's economy. At the same time the US would profit China would profit. It was a great win-win for 30 years. Eventually China was going to surpass the US under this system. Everyone knew this and actually the US was ok with it. All the US wanted in return was for China to become
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in the world order and liberalize gradually.

Instead China became a hypernationalist authoritarian power that became even more hardline. So the US realized it made a mistake, it built up its own competitor and created its own monster by its own hand. That is why the US hates China so much now, because it loved it before. The bad news for China is that the US still has the clout to seriously damage and stop China's rise.
Don't drink the cool aid. If US loved China so much during the Deng era, then why did they try the Original color revolution there (Tiananmen)? It's purely for making money off of them while trying to contain the soviets.
 

Mt1701d

Junior Member
Registered Member
Gradually the supply chain is moving, and alternative supply chains are being created. This is the choice of companies like Apple, and other foreign companies. Assembly can be moved anywhere with enough will and prodding from government policy. But what China cannot do is move advanced photolithography manufacturing to China, because China lacks the know-how to do it, no matter how much willpower or what the government investment is. Thus this is a vulnerability.
Yes supply chains are moving and it is inevitable it will move, and yes assembly can be done anywhere, but this involves opportunity cost, for a company to successfully move to another location, you are forgetting the setup costs necessary, even if they are outsourcing to Foxconn, Foxconn will have to bear that cost. Its not as simple as giving China the finger and moving somewhere else and bam done. Massive companies like Apple might be able to do this but how many Apples are there, further there isn't as much incentive for Apple to be based in China anymore, all thanks to Trump, as their main market is mainly the rest of the world and most importantly the US, otherwise if they still have a good market share in China, you think they will leave.

Have you considered that for those who still have China as a major market, they are going nowhere, as the Chinese market continue to become larger with more consumer, what do you think the companies would do, when it is simpler to have the thing made there and serve other markets instead, and they can save more money through economy of scale.
 
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Peter2018

Junior Member
Registered Member
China was not hated until very recently. During the Deng, Jiang and Hu eras China was seen as opening up and liberalizing. This belief persisted until around 2015. Now China is beginning to be hated, but still coasting on past successes. It will still have some successes, but it is being more and more hated and this will eventually stall out China, as it is already beginning to do. It is foolish to say that being hated is good.
That is due to the smearing campaign by some adversary which is itself a hostile and racist regime.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Junior Member
Registered Member
Don't waste your time with someone intended to troll. Don't break any forum rules. It isn't worth it.
He is troll, but since he's such a persistent little pest and the mods here don't ban alts on suspicion, I thought it might be interesting to examine tidalwave's diseased psychology and explain why he keeps pushing the "China should appease" narrative.

The first thing everyone should understand about tidalwave is that like much of the Chinese diaspora, he cares absolutely nothing for China. What he cares about is preserving his own skin from the rising anti-China sentiment, especially in America where he lives. His advice isn't given out of misguided good intention; rather, he knows full well that if any Chinese leader took his ramblings seriously and acted on it, China's position would be significantly harmed. Should that happen, America wouldn't feel threatened by China and the American public's violent racist tendencies would ebb somewhat and maybe then he'd be able to sleep without keeping a loaded gun under his pillow.

It's a really disgusting mentality, but it's quite prevalent among the Western Chinese diaspora - tidalwave just happens to be an extreme example. A similar selfishness animates the repeated calls from some quarters that China should "improve its PR." These people want some deus ex machina to come along - presumably in the form of a magical Chinese media campaign - and turn their host country's opinion of China on its head so they wouldn't be subject to said host country's racist animus. Sadly for them, no such super propaganda campaign exists and if they insist on staying in the West then the increased chance that they'll be the victim of racist violence is just the risk they take. If you choose to remain in the West despite all that's happening and the danger you're in, then you've made your bed and you'll lie in it.

Tidalwave, your very justified worry that you'll be the victim of racist violence isn't China's problem. China doesn't care about you, it shouldn't care about you and it won't change its policies one whit to make you safe.
 

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