China's Space Program Thread II
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
You've misunderstood me. As far as I'm concerned, the real question is: what does the success of SpaceX/Starlink have to do with whether China wins or loses?
The US shut China out of the US-led aerospace system more than twenty years ago. China's current launch achievements and capabilities basically have little to do with the West—technologically none to speak of, industrially (economically) even less. China's space program is an independent existence, separate from Western space (US + Russia + Europe + Japan + India). China's satellite applications, launch vehicles, space station, deep space—all have long been insulated from the Western space world.
SpaceX/Starlink can kill off European, Japanese, and Russian space industries, but it absolutely has no direct impact on China's space sector. China's domestic space demand alone is enough to support a market that rivals the entire Western space field combined.
So, just like the tariff war—globally, only China can prove it can go head-to-head with US demands. Whatever tariff the US slaps on, China matches it tit-for-tat. Because China isn't afraid of bilateral trade going to zero at all—if the US does that, it hurts itself worse. The result is, visibly, the US has "won" against everyone except China.
See the point? China's space sector operates in a domain completely detached from the US-led one. Building a space market and system wholly independent of the US—whether SpaceX/Starlink does well or poorly creates zero interference with China's actual space progress. So SpaceX can kill (disrupt) any other competitor's market—except China's.
If the US can't kill China off, what does China have to fear?
But how does China win? Actually, it boils down to two points: (1) wait for the opponent to make mistakes; (2) once Chinese products develop to a certain level, the head-to-head comparison comes down to price advantage.
I've said this before—on the Chinese side, we genuinely calculated Falcon 9's cost at $15 million per launch. So Chinese space players are planning their future market competition around a $15M launch price.
The problem is, SpaceX's actual quoted service price to customers is $70 million per launch.
So have you ever thought—if China really goes out at $25–30 million to deliver the same payload mass to orbit, what kind of impact would that have on the US? Does China have a price advantage or not?
Same with Starlink. No matter how many years earlier the US built Starlink than China, China will get around to building a LEO constellation of the same scale sooner or later. China has the price advantage in electronics, in chips, in labor cost, in automated production equipment, in raw materials (rare metals, processing & refining). And now also the launch-cost advantage.
Tell me then—what advantage does SpaceX's Starlink have? Its costs are 100% several times higher than China's. China only needs to set terminal prices at 1/2 or even 1/3 of Starlink's subscriber price—that's enough to make SpaceX's global revenue lose its growth narrative, even see market shrinkage.
SpaceX is also doing a lot of things doomed to lose money—like Mars landing or lunar landing (Starship HLS forced into the lunar role, and in the end it's just manufacturing its own financial black hole).
So China really doesn't need to doanything—just stick to its own pace, and SpaceX will run into problems on its own. After SpaceX goes public, many top Western finance figures—like SoftBank's Masayoshi Son—have done podcasts talking about this. SpaceX's valuation vs. actual revenue isproblematic. There's even a professional term coined for Musk by now, roughly "faith-based Ponzi finance."
An unhealthy financial model—that's SpaceX's Achilles' heel.
China doesn't need to prove it can immediately match SpaceX's pace or scale. Because China isn't even competing with SpaceX. SpaceX is built on a bubble of its own making (otherwise why call it Ponzi finance?). China doesn't need to do anything—just complete its own comms constellation buildout on schedule, develop users according to its own financial model and cost structure. Because China's real costs are just lower than SpaceX's. So China's pricing will inevitably puncture SpaceX's profit bubble. After that, it's just natural economic laws taking effect.
Actually, it's the same problem in AI right now—why Chinese AI models are used globally now, surpassing US models. Because they're cheap. China's electricity cost is low, its domestic chips are low-cost, its AI workforce labor cost is low, its model training cost is low. China also focuses on optimizing and improving algorithmic efficiency. And China doesn't chase excessive financial margins. China treats AI as future digital infrastructure—20–30% profit is fine, no need for 50–80% or even 800% gross margin.
That's why Apple wants to use Chinese memory chips now, and is lobbying the US government for it—the core point is, Micron charges nearly 10x for the same product. China doesn't mark up that much. The underlying business logic is just different.
Same with European AC units—in China, a split AC can be installed for $120–200; $300–400 is absolute high-end. What's an AC cost in Europe? Installation fee alone starts at €2,000.
With that kind of cost or margin pursuit, you naturally have no competitiveness. European and American cars too—features that come standard on Chinese cars, even just adding a navigation screen, cost thousands of euros extra there. Real cost is around €100 (the electronic components' cost is right there). The rest is inflated margin, and that margin isn't even captured by Chinese firms—it's that allcosts in the European and American markets are high. There's a lot of economics behind this, I won't elaborate. But in short, this is the real secret of the West's 400-year leading advantage (in the post-colonial era, colonization never actually stopped).
China was originally keeping this mechanism running all along, but the US tried to forcibly eject China. So China, for self-preservation, detaches from the system. (Actually, think about it carefully—it'll be the same as with China's space sector vs. the US-led space world. Result: the US can't kill China; once China develops independently to a certain scale, it'll naturally carve out part of the US's existing market. The US inevitably bleeds from both ends—loses market andloses cost advantage.) The final result: the Western economy collapses under its own cost-control problem (the whole society's operating cost). It falls on its own…
Now you see why I think China wins even doing nothing? A country of China's size, under current economic theory (comparative trade, globalization), has already integrated into the Western-led global economy and become a pillar of the system's operation. Suddenly trying to forcibly strangle or quarantine this economy—the consequence is actually your own economic cycle collapsing first. Your own economy collapses, then what aerospace advantage are you talking about?
The "accident" you mentioned does exist—everyone knows it: a hot war of sufficient intensity. If China takes devastating damage in the end, then yes, China's space sector would lose.
I think we should also remember this is the first orbital flight of a LM10, flying the same booster as the variant that will launch China's first manned lunar landing and with 70t LEO payload. IMO proving out the booster is the most significant part of this launch as its a major concrete step forward in China's manned lunar program. Recovery is, while significant and great to have, really just bonus. At end of the day the consequence of not having recovery is much smaller than the consequence of not making orbit, i.e. Starship.
Unfortunately the ZQ-3 launch and recovery operation for Y2 has been delayed into August.
Various posts deleted.
Commenting about other individuals on other platforms "seething" or "coping" and posting about it in this thread is a waste of everyone's time.
This thread doesn't exist for one's own amusement of other people's emotions.
Commenting about other individuals on other platforms "seething" or "coping" and posting about it in this thread is a waste of everyone's time.
This thread doesn't exist for one's own amusement of other people's emotions.