China's Space Program Thread II

[jli88]

That’s called picking winners. You don’t have a competitive system by favoring one private player over others.

Merit based picking winners is okay I think, the government has been making venture investments for a long time, and this is a venture investment in the most successful private chinese player. Maybe others can get one too when they are as accomplished as Landspace. Maybe the quantum can be decreased. 10 bn USD gift for a successful landing. 10 bn USD after reuse. Something like that.

The government was talking of a trillion yuan venture fund earlier, need to move the plan along rather fast.

 

[NoetherSpudCharge]

Can be modified to be moon cargo spacecraft to carry between Earth and moon surface transport. Will have 1600kg to transport to moon and 800-1000kg back.

So I went and looked at the cited Weibo post and the included images of the paper. The discussion regarding the cargo Mengzhou states the mass capacity of the lunar version of cargo-Mengzhou between Earth and an 'Earth-Moon Space Station' (地月空间站); this suggests that at the very least that there may be conceptual studies for a station akin to Artemis' "Gateway" station, perhaps at Earth-Moon L1? Thoughts?

 

[TheRathalos]

So I went and looked at the cited Weibo post and the included images of the paper. The discussion regarding the cargo Mengzhou states the mass capacity of the lunar version of cargo-Mengzhou between Earth and an 'Earth-Moon Space Station' (地月空间站); this suggests that at the very least that there may be conceptual studies for a station akin to Artemis' "Gateway" station, perhaps at Earth-Moon L1? Thoughts?

A lunar orbital station is expected to be a component of the "extended" ILRS by 2045 as envisioned by CNSA/DSEL and CASC/CAST
Like other components of the extended ILRS it will probably need a CZ-9-scale heavy launcher to be deployed.

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[NoetherSpudCharge]

yes that's the speculated general order, the alternatives don't seem plausible

At this point the questions are:
-When will the first Crewed LEO CZ-10A-Mengzhou flight happen? Previous information* indicated that it'd enter operational use in 2027, we don't know if CMSA will put the first crew after 2 succesful uncrewed flights like Shenzhou, or after a single one (like Dragon, Orion, and the lunar Mengzhou-Y...).

-Will the Lanyue demonstration include a launch back to LLO? That would be very logical and expected, the americans aren't doing it with HLS but that's because of limitations of their architecture, I don't think there's much question it will happen.

-What's the trajectory of the Mengzhou demo? IMO it should at least demonstrate lunar insertion capability ahead of the manned lunar orbit one, I doubt it'll be a free return but who knows

-The most important: will there be a demonstration of Lanyue-Mengzhou-Y rendez-vous and docking in Lunar orbit? Under the current mission order that would require the 1st Lanyue to wait the Mengzhou demo in orbit for a long period before attempting a landing, or alternatively only attempt docking after coming back from lunar surface. It's possible they may not demonstrate this until the crewed lunar landing (unlike apollo and like artemis), or they could also demonstrate it in low earth orbit (like Apollo 9)

On the Lanyue demonstration flight, possibly on the first CZ-10, I agree that it's almost certain that they'd try to relaunch it back into LLO after an assumed successful uncrewed landing. (The only reason not to do it is if the system is not mature enough to permit a landing and liftoff at the same time or if a problem developed after landing, but if that's the case, they'd certainly have to perform a second landing+launch demo mission before actually landing astronauts.

You may be right on the Mengzhou demonstration flight's need to perform lunar orbit insertion on the second CZ-10 launch before CMSA commits to a crewed flight to LLO, but I suppose they can simultaneously demonstrate lunar free return using the CZ-10 upper srage? In any case, the Soviets first did a lunar free return in 1968 (Zond 5) before their canceled LLO and landing missions. Also, if the Mengzhou demo on the second CZ-10 occurs relatively early in 2028, and if the Lanyue demo on the first CZ-10 occurs in late 2027, then the MZ demo can be used to demonstrate MZ-LY docking in lunar orbit with LY having to loiter only a few months at most in lunar orbit (a relatively short period between the first two CZ-10 launches can also be used to rehearse the procedures and cadence needed for the two crewed landing flights in 2029). Just a thought.

 

[Tomboy]

A lunar orbital station is expected to be a component of the "extended" ILRS by 2045 as envisioned by CNSA/DSEL and CASC/CAST
Like other components of the extended ILRS it will probably need a CZ-9-scale heavy launcher to be deployed.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

View attachment 168696View attachment 168695View attachment 168694

So, it seems like they are pushing back lunar habitation by a good 10 years? I thought we were expecting crewed habitations as soon as 2035.

 

[iewgnem]

So, it seems like they are pushing back lunar habitation by a good 10 years? I thought we were expecting crewed habitations as soon as 2035.

If you take that timeline literally do you also think they're going to launch two crewed lander this year then leave them on the moon for 15 years?

 

[iewgnem]

A lunar orbital station is expected to be a component of the "extended" ILRS by 2045 as envisioned by CNSA/DSEL and CASC/CAST
Like other components of the extended ILRS it will probably need a CZ-9-scale heavy launcher to be deployed.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

View attachment 168696View attachment 168695View attachment 168694

Maybe I missed these when they were first posted, but this is the first time I've seen confirmation the crash stage + lander architecture was intended for lander reuse in combination with a earth-moon shuttle.

 

[tphuang]

Merit based picking winners is okay I think, the government has been making venture investments for a long time, and this is a venture investment in the most successful private chinese player. Maybe others can get one too when they are as accomplished as Landspace. Maybe the quantum can be decreased. 10 bn USD gift for a successful landing. 10 bn USD after reuse. Something like that.

The government was talking of a trillion yuan venture fund earlier, need to move the plan along rather fast.

Okay, please take a look at how these funds work in other industries. They are essentially government run VCs.

Companies can do their pitch and if they do a good presentation, they will get money. Please read through some of the threads that we have on different tech sectors. They are quite informative and explains a lot about the investments being made.

So I went and looked at the cited Weibo post and the included images of the paper. The discussion regarding the cargo Mengzhou states the mass capacity of the lunar version of cargo-Mengzhou between Earth and an 'Earth-Moon Space Station' (地月空间站); this suggests that at the very least that there may be conceptual studies for a station akin to Artemis' "Gateway" station, perhaps at Earth-Moon L1? Thoughts?

I'm not sure. It is possible this is more of a gateway station

 

[GulfLander]

China's commercial space sector is accelerating faster than ever. More rockets are being built, more launches are planned, and behind this speed, a quiet transformation is underway on the ground. Major space companies are upgrading factories, while smaller private suppliers are being integrated into the system, taking on tasks once considered out of reach.

 

[jnd85]

DW is

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more "Nantianmen Project" again.

中国空天母舰“鸾鸟”：超级武器还是宣传攻势？ China's space-based aircraft carrier "Luan Niao": Super Weapon or Propaganda Offensive?​

To DW's credit, they really can't not talk about it, since related material is regularly featured on state media (sample video below) so has de facto entered public discourse. It is a recurring popular topic in other state media as well, I think just because it is a cultural touchstone.

But my interpretation is that the Nantianmen universe offers inspiration for creativity and a source of pride, but that only a child would confuse it for a literal roadmap. The DW editorial staff however seems to view it less as a tool for boosting recruitment, and more as a bluff to confuse adversaries and create a "deterrent posture".

I am sure that people are going to run with this online and that we will once again see a wave of content generators claiming that this is in fact the exact roadmapped future that China sees for space. They do point out that many of the impressive space projects being realized today started as fantastical science fiction, so see the potential for China to be following a similar path.

And there really do seem to be Chinese social media accounts touting this as real, and I truly can't tell if they are propagandists, being sarcastic, or just lacking intelligence.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014925486376550866

For anyone who believes any of this, stay away from Yokohama!