Is that going to be a true orbital test flight or just a static fire? I mean it doesn't even have its upper stage.
China's Space Program Thread II
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Any idea when the 3-CBC variant is slated to fly?
There are no expectations for it to be a true orbital flight test.
Per the tweet link itself, which quotes a tweet by the same author from a period back, it's likely to be either a Max-Q abort test or a VTVL test for the stage.
Not any time in the immediate year or so.
This year we are likely to see the single stick CZ-10A an CZ-10B make their first launches, with likely attempts at VTVL for one or both types.
It is commonly quoted as some time during 2027. A 2022 weibo post by CASC stated "2027年前后" which implies that it can be as early as during 2026. I don't believe 2026 is possible as there are lots of things to be tested by CZ-10A for the crew capsul this year, but it is safe to say 2027.
A paper here laid out three tests objectives as following, with my interpretation in italic.
1. LEO test of crew module. Done by CZ-10A in 2026
2. Unmanned free return of crew module. Lunar flyby of crew module, likely 2027. It is to test the scenario of aborted landing and crew will fly back without docking and landing. The trojectory and sequence is different from an actual landing as it does not enter LLO.
3. Unmmaned landing. Any time after step 2. This will involve both crew module and lander enterring LLO, docking, lander decent, ascent, re-docking, departing from LLO etc.
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It'll be a suborbital test, either for the Mengzhou In Flight Abort test or for the "Low Altitude Flight" (Take off and landing test to test the first stage recovery system), both were previously announced for late 2025 and both are expected in the near future.
There should be an orbital launch test of the CZ-10B (which shares the same "common booster" with CZ-10 but with a different,cheaper upper stage for commercial use) in April/May and Mengzhou-1 is planned for November/December with CZ-10A and and unmanned Mengzhou docking to Tiangong.
A CASC presentation at CASC's annual work conference 10 days ago confirmed that the 3-CBC variant is still planned for 2027 in cargo version, so carrying the Lanyue lander for a full-scale lunar landing unmanned demonstration.
The Unmanned free return/lunar orbit demonstration will happen after, in 2028. A manned lunar orbit mission is also expected for 2028 according to statements by Astronaut Liu Yang in and reiterated at the 2025 Two sessions.
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Prior information (from slides during research presentations) suggested that the human lunar landing attempt will use the 4th and 5th launches of CZ-10. If this info is still correct, then we may be looking at the following possible sequence of launches:
MZ-LEO (CZ-10A, uncrewed capsule test) Late 2026
LY-LunarSurface (CZ-10; uncrewed landing + launch back into LLO) 2027
MZ-HLO (CZ-10, uncrewed free return trajectory test) 2028
MZ-LLO (CZ-10, crewed flight with possible LY docking in LLO?) 2028
LY-LunarSurface (CZ-10, transport to LLO ) 2029
MZ-LLO (CZ-10, transport landing crew to LLO then dock with LY) 2029
MZ-LEO (CZ-10A, uncrewed capsule test) Late 2026
LY-LunarSurface (CZ-10; uncrewed landing + launch back into LLO) 2027
MZ-HLO (CZ-10, uncrewed free return trajectory test) 2028
MZ-LLO (CZ-10, crewed flight with possible LY docking in LLO?) 2028
LY-LunarSurface (CZ-10, transport to LLO ) 2029
MZ-LLO (CZ-10, transport landing crew to LLO then dock with LY) 2029
Do you have a higher resolution of that image, very interesting picture.