China's SCS Strategy Thread

yungho

Junior Member
Registered Member
IMO, China will not be able to hold Taiwan for long, even she takes it. It was colonized by mostly Fujianese & then lost to mainland rebels, Dutch, & Japanese before the KMT fled there.
Historically, & in the long run, attackers from the West & South always lost all wars: Japan was unsuccessfully invaded twice by the Mongols; Korea was invaded by Japan/US, but China came from the North & retook all/1/2 of it, respectively. The Mongols took C/S Asia, China, ME, & Russia; US lost in Canada in 1812 but took 1/2 of Mexico, Hawaii, Philippines, Guam, finally defeating & occupying Japan in 1945.
China will have more luck taking underpopulated SE Asia & later Australia.
Assuming China does take Taiwan during a wartime scenario, they will have a hard time holding it due to the populace not necessarily because they attacked from the West. D-Day was a successful invasion from the West. The US drove the Japanese out of SEA from the South. The direction is not relative, moreso the surrounding situation.

China may not be able to hold Taiwan if there's unrest in the mainland and the CCP falls due to an anti-communist movement. But Taiwan's right is anti-communist so you can argue Taiwan would be more supportive of a non-communist mainland. I don't see how any SEA nations have to do with this. China does not care about 'taking' SEA land or Australia. China cares about owning the literal SC sea, not the nations around it.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
IMO, China will not be able to hold Taiwan for long, even she takes it. It was colonized by mostly Fujianese & then lost to mainland rebels, Dutch, & Japanese before the KMT fled there.
Historically, & in the long run, attackers from the West & South always lost all wars: Japan was unsuccessfully invaded twice by the Mongols; Korea was invaded by Japan/US, but China came from the North & retook all/1/2 of it, respectively. The Mongols took C/S Asia, China, ME, & Russia; US lost in Canada in 1812 but took 1/2 of Mexico, Hawaii, Philippines, Guam, finally defeating & occupying Japan in 1945.
China will have more luck taking underpopulated SE Asia & later Australia.
I think you need to brush up on your history Shi Lang did successfully invade Taiwan and recover Taiwan for Qing Dynasty. He used to be admiral under Zheng chenggon aka Koxinga but falling out with him He use Penghu island as stepping stone to invade the island
1627741651352.png

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Shi Lang was born to a distinguished lineage in
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, in 1621. He studied military strategy in his youth, and became particularly proficient in naval warfare. He was also famous for his strength, ferocity and martial skills in battle.
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once described him as a fierce warrior who was also highly adept in military command skills, however, he was a blunt and rude person who lacked basic manners and courtesy. After fighting a number of minor operations locally with his father, he joined
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's naval fleet as captain of the left vanguard. Shi Lang served most of the early 1640s in the Zheng family's fleet, where he apparently saw some conflict with Zheng Zhilong's son
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. When Shi defected to the
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in 1646, Zheng Chenggong killed Shi's father, brother and son.

In 1681, following the
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, the
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sought a possible leader for an amphibious operation against Taiwan. Following the advice of
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, he chose Shi Lang. Shi Lang insisted on having an independent command, not one shared with
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, the Governor-General of Fujian. On 8 July 1683, after extensive preparation, Shi Lang led a force of 300 warships and 20,000 soldiers out of Tongshan, Fujian. On July 16–17, he defeated the Zheng family's leading naval commander,
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, in a major engagement near the Pescadores.
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On 5 September, Shi Lang received
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's offer to surrender. On 3 October, he reached Taiwan and formally obtained the capitulation of Liu Guoxuan and Zheng Keshuang.

Following this successful campaign, Shi Lang returned to the Chinese mainland and worked hard to persuade the Kangxi Emperor to make Taiwan part of China's recognized territory. At the time, there was opposition among many within the Qing government toward the annexation of Taiwan, arguing that its maintenance would become an economic burden on the empire. However, the Kangxi Emperor accepted Shi Lang's views, and in 1684 Taiwan was divided into three counties and established as a prefecture of Fujian province.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't understand why Australia is so eager to fan the flames of war. I thought it was just the military looking to increase their budget, but the media and politicans are constantly 'sounding the alarm' and playing up conflict with China. If you look at a map, I don't see how China is anywhere near close to starting a war with Australia, much less 'take over' Australia. I understand Australian-Chinese trade is important to the Australian economy, but why are the Australians so eager to call for conflict? The two countries aren't even on the same equator...

Because Australia is afraid to go up against their master. Last time they did that, they lost their premier.

Because Australia is deputy sherrif and a lacky of the USA. Like his chief, Ausralia flamed up accusations of origin covid19, HK, Xinjiang, Tibet, human rights and so on, and that is why China's response by not buying Austalia's iron ore, wine and others. China has many sources for scuh raw materials. Trade with Austalia is so insignificant, but it hurts Australia deeply because of its already low GDP.

It is not even that. Saying they are deputy Sherrif actually legitimise their role. I think at best, we can describe them as an over enthusiastic posse.

IMO, China will not be able to hold Taiwan for long, even she takes it. It was colonized by mostly Fujianese & then lost to mainland rebels, Dutch, & Japanese before the KMT fled there.
Historically, & in the long run, attackers from the West & South always lost all wars: Japan was unsuccessfully invaded twice by the Mongols; Korea was invaded by Japan/US, but China came from the North & retook all/1/2 of it, respectively. The Mongols took C/S Asia, China, ME, & Russia; US lost in Canada in 1812 but took 1/2 of Mexico, Hawaii, Philippines, Guam, finally defeating & occupying Japan in 1945.
China will have more luck taking underpopulated SE Asia & later Australia.

What have you been smoking?
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Filipinas/os are turned coats. They suck what they want. They will abandon you to their own advantages. Do you trust them?
That's a bit overblown and down right offensive. As someone pointed out already, the Philippines has been colonized, lobotomized by foreign powers since it became known as the Philippines (named after the King of Spain Felipe). You can't expect a country who's yet to know, live, breathe full independence as a sovereign nation to behave like one when it's. And let's not even pretend to forget that China wasn't littered with traitorous scums, or Korea wasn't sold out by their fellow brethrens to Chinese, Japanese and Americans alike.

The Philippine elite are simply too wedded to what they have known and exposed to most of their lives which is the power of western countries from Spain to the Americans. The Chinese history and influence in the country and it's society is purely cosmetics or not skin deep even though most of their celebrated national heroes were of Chinese blood. Despite this historical fact, most Filipinos are befuddlingly more enamored and imagined themselves to have more Spanish bloodline than what they actually have. From religion, education, and political system the Filipinos have been thoroughly colonized by the Westerners. As you can see, China has a very tough and arduous challenge to change the anti-China narrative in that archipelago but I do believe that if we can marginally change or convince our Filipino neighbors mindset that China has no territorial ambitions to ever occupy their lands and that any disputes we may have with them can and will always be solved diplomatically would be a win for both countries. But we must first disabuse this fantastical fairy tale that the U.S. can and will protect the Philippines unsparingly when it comes to her issues with China. China must show a resolve that it's best as friends and will become your worst nightmare if treated as an enemy real or imagined.
 

Tsavo Lion

Junior Member
Registered Member
What could possibly force China's hold off of the ROC? No military force present on the island can do it and the people themselves say they aren't willing to fight. Even if they are, China can flood population onto the island. There's no way to lose it.
it's not HK to be pacified so quickly, but a hot potato that will smolder & burn China for a long time. Given old rivalries with Japan, India, the UK, & France, other SE Asians won't be alone standing up to mainland Chinese. Tibet & Sinkyang (SUAR) r being flooded by Hans for decades, but still a security challenge.

There you go with your false applications to history again. There's no significance to the direction; winds thwarted the Mongols at a time when there were no modern ships,..
The main reason isn't the weather, but geography & natural resources that favor those who occupy the high ground. Russia been invaded from the West several times, but she still won. The same with Turks & Persians to the South. The Japanese took Sakhalin, Manchuria & Philippines, but were kicked out by the USSR & USA. They were lucky not to loose Hokkaido & N. Honshu. OTH, the British Isles were colonized by Anglo-Saxons but never conquered after 1066 Norman invasion; the Brits knew that a unified Europe would crash them, hence their "balance of power" diplomacy & numerous mil. interventions on the Continent.
A big war over Taiwan may result in break up of China.
 

duskseeker

Junior Member
Registered Member
it's not HK to be pacified so quickly, but a hot potato that will smolder & burn China for a long time. Given old rivalries with Japan, India, the UK, & France, other SE Asians won't be alone standing up to mainland Chinese. Tibet & Sinkyang (SUAR) r being flooded by Hans for decades, but still a security challenge.
I bet if this was an HK issue you would say this is not Chechnya that would be pacified so quickly.
 
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