China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Bellum_Romanum]

it will take forever to pacify, as there r native non-Han Taiwanese that will want to become independent again. China has land borders on & controlled/colonized Korea for a few hundred & Vietnam for a 1K years, yet they both became independent.

with many of them, chemicals must be used, & ur house will stink for a long time afterwards.

there r bigger players' interests involved, so China may bite more than she can chew & swallow with Taiwan. All of NATO, India, Australia, & Japan r joining keep the status quo, just like when the UN prevented the ROK falling to NK & PRC. Before that, Japan (which by then lost Manchuria & was ready to surrender) was nuked twice to stop the USSR from landing on Hokkaido, contrary to what American propaganda says.

their invasion from East succeeded, while all others from other directions failed.

true, but the USSR didn't have good logistics, with only Moscow as a focal point. Still, they moved their war production East, were climate is worse, built more roads, & counterattacked, retaking all of E. Europe.

I'm not more foolish than any1 else here, so pl. be nice or be careful.

time will tell! how many times China was fragmented with no central authority? who can guarantee it won't split again?

by the same token, Taiwan & the SC Sea r special issues to Japan & US.
Wait till Japan, Taiwan & Australia get their own nukes. all of them have submarines, build more, & could carry them, just like Israeli subs do near Iran.

it'll take a very long time to do it; even as peninsula, it won't be too hard to retake.

Lol India is going to join in attacking China for Taiwan? Hmm for reals bro? So not only is India keen on having Tibet as part of of her territory away from China, the Indians are also going to join in on attacking China on an issue that's far removed from India's own geopolitical interest not to mention no historical connection to it's entire modern existence as a country with Taiwan other than commonalities on political system. If that were to happen is Pakistan going to simply sit idly by and assume that it will take no action to assist one of it's foremost geopolitical ally (China) and take an opportunity against India? Is Russia going to sit back, chill and relax by letting China be weakened severely to the point that Russia's own security will be compromised?

As for your assertion about South Korea somehow deluding itself into a conflict of extinction against China by inserting herself in the Taiwan conflict do you somehow just magically forget China's actual treaty ally in North Korea also doing nothing in the even that South Korea fatally forgetting her tenuous situation in the peninsula. And if by yet another moronic monumental arrogance that Japan enters the conflict to try and be the white knight for Taiwan and play it's role as the impish slave to American geopolitical interest in Asia that would simply incentivice and motivate beyond your dismissive arrogance towards the Chinese people's will and rationale for wanting to recapture the lands lost during their country's historical weakness which Japan has a very significant role for the current Taiwan issue.

I am quite amused for your almost guaranteed smugness that Vietnam, Indonesia, not to mention the Philippines will join in the war not as a choice but as a necessity for those countries essential survival and that somehow their foray into the potential conflict will contribute a substantial military impact on an issue that has no relevance to their own geopolitical existence other than maybe utilizing the Taiwan angle to extract some kind of concession relevant to each of the countries territorial issues with China. Each of those ASEAN countries may have territorial frictions against China but at varying degrees. Involving themselves in a historical dispute against China on her quest of reunification is a sure hell fire way that their survival hangs in the balance and their extinction the more likely scenario. What's the Philippines going to do against China militarily? The Philippines military force structure is not designed to fight a big battle conflict scenario regardless of whatever their egotistical know-nothing pro-American military-political-business elites may say. The Philippine Army has a force structure of about 95,000 level strength with a supposed 75,000 reserved force. What can this meager force realistically going to be able to contribute other than an almost certain death to their military personnel. (Apologies to @ansy1968 )

None of the forces in the ASEAN region has been procuring, posturing their respective military structures into preparation for WWIII conflict against China contrary to what you have been musings from your overly imaginative anti-China rant.

The chances of China failing to reunify with Taiwan is a hell of a lot higher than Turkey having the ability of either recapturing all of Cyprus unto herself and becoming the reincarnated version of the Ottoman empire of the 21st century. That is just a fantasy that's never going to materialize.

 

[davidau]

@davidau bro that is why its a transactional agreement with a twist, the former VFA is an American document that was forced on to us, this new agreement is a way to correct those onerous provision. Bro we know our strategic value, like I said China is our neighbor and the US is a guest, so who you will value more. Joining RCEP is an indication of where our trajectory is. In this competition between great powers having both feet in their doorstep is a sure way of surviving. You can't forced out the US due to its influence inside our country but having a say is better than having non at all.

With this latest transitional agreement with the US, does it not imply the Philipines will allow the station of US troops on its soil?

 

[james smith esq]

I find it perplexing that so few, here, utilize the “Ignore” option in those instances when it is so obviously appropriate.

 

[manqiangrexue]

it will take forever to pacify, as there r native non-Han Taiwanese that will want to become independent again

Funny way to use forever; it took me forever through traffic today getting to dinner. They may want what they want, but 1.4 billion Chinese people want otherwise, so they will accept their fate. On the other hand, Hong Kong is visibly being pacified at an incredible rate; so much improvement in a few short months.

. China has land borders on & controlled/colonized Korea for a few hundred & Vietnam for a 1K years, yet they both became independent.

This happened when China was at its weakest. This boat has set sail decades ago... and then sank. The China of today only gets bigger, never smaller.

with many of them, chemicals must be used, & ur house will stink for a long time afterwards.

OK, no problem. It can smell bad for a while, but I'm not giving up any part of my house to vermin.

there r bigger players' interests involved,

China, Russia, and the USA are the biggest players in the world. After considering them, there are no bigger players.

so China may bite more than she can chew & swallow with Taiwan.

No, these countries will bite off more than they can chew if they dare stand against China's reunion with Taiwan.

All of NATO, India, Australia, & Japan r joining keep the status quo, just like when the UN prevented the ROK falling to NK & PRC.

All of these countries are small cowards that only dare fight if the victory is secured by the US. They will do nothing when they calculate that they will fail and China will attack them full power. The ROC is not worth anything more than words to them.

Before that, Japan (which by then lost Manchuria & was ready to surrender) was nuked twice to stop the USSR from landing on Hokkaido, contrary to what American propaganda says.

Sucks for Japan. Off topic, don't care.

their invasion from East succeeded, while all others from other directions failed.

Nothing succeeded. Russia is not part of any other country.

true, but the USSR didn't have good logistics, with only Moscow as a focal point. Still, they moved their war production East, were climate is worse, built more roads, & counterattacked, retaking all of E. Europe.

Off topic, don't care. Sounds like book fool rant again.

I'm not more foolish than any1 else here, so pl. be nice or be careful.

I'm as nice and careful as the rules require. Your judgement of your own intellect is different from everyone else's opinon of you. And when you see everyone else driving in the opposite of you on the same road, you should know who's the fool...

time will tell!

Then that can be the end of your ignorant nonsense.

how many times China was fragmented with no central authority? who can guarantee it won't split again?

It doesn't happen to modern powers, only in ancient history. And China is a country that is growing more wealthy and more stable so the trend is opposite to what you hope to see. No one can guarantee what will happen 1,000 years in the future but it doesn't mean you can try to sell your imaginary events that are contrary to modern trends. One more application failure on your part, and this is not even related to Taiwan.

by the same token, Taiwan & the SC Sea r special issues to Japan & US.

I'm glad you put the SCS in this as a "special issue." It shows you how little they can do against China on special issues as China builds its territory and arms them in SCS. All they do is sail in circles and complain as China makes real progress. Same will happen with Taiwan.

Wait till Japan, Taiwan & Australia get their own nukes. all of them have submarines, build more, & could carry them, just like Israeli subs do near Iran.

Why wait for your imaginary scenerio, when the real scenerio is that China is arming faster than all of them combined? You are right in your imagination; I am right in the real world.

 

[davidau]

Funny way to use forever; it took me forever through traffic today getting to dinner. They may want what they want, but 1.4 billion Chinese people want otherwise, so they will accept their fate. On the other hand, Hong Kong is visibly being pacified at an incredible rate; so much improvement in a few short months.

This happened when China was at its weakest. This boat has set sail decades ago... and then sank. The China of today only gets bigger, never smaller.

OK, no problem. It can smell bad for a while, but I'm not giving up any part of my house to vermin.

China, Russia, and the USA are the biggest players in the world. After considering them, there are no bigger players.

No, these countries will bite off more than they can chew if they dare stand against China's reunion with Taiwan.

All of these countries are small cowards that only dare fight if the victory is secured by the US. They will do nothing when they calculate that they will fail and China will attack them full power. The ROC is not worth anything more than words to them.

Sucks for Japan. Off topic, don't care.

Nothing succeeded. Russia is not part of any other country.

Off topic, don't care. Sounds like book fool rant again.

I'm as nice and careful as the rules require. Your judgement of your own intellect is different from everyone else's opinon of you. And when you see everyone else driving in the opposite of you on the same road, you should know who's the fool...

Then that can be the end of your ignorant nonsense.

It doesn't happen to modern powers, only in ancient history. And China is a country that is growing more wealthy and more stable so the trend is opposite to what you hope to see. No one can guarantee what will happen 1,000 years in the future but it doesn't mean you can try to sell your imaginary events that are contrary to modern trends. One more application failure on your part, and this is not even related to Taiwan.

I'm glad you put the SCS in this as a "special issue." It shows you how little they can do against China on special issues as China builds its territory and arms them in SCS. Same with Taiwan.

Why wait for your imaginary scenerio, when the real scenerio is that China is arming faster than all of them combined? You are right in your imagination; I am right in the real world.

Thanks, well researched and responded to this ignorant wxxm appropriately, point by point, with facts.

 

[ansy1968]

With this latest transitional agreement with the US, does it not imply the Philipines will allow the station of US troops on its soil?

@davidau bro our constitution forbade any stationing of foreign troops and maintaining of bases, EDCA was done to circumvent that by prepositioning of military equipment, VFA is to allow the US troops to come and operate those machine. Those two agreements was done during the past administration as a context of Chinese aggression in the SCS. If you see the text it had the stamp of Kurt Campbell written all over. Now Duterte use the VFA abrogation as a way to bargain with the US , to change it by excluding those onerous provision and to nullify any adventurist tendency of the US. Its our land thus our law should apply above all and one of those is a provision which state an independent foreign policy, friends to all enemy to none.

 

[duskseeker]

@davidau bro our constitution forbade any stationing of foreign troops and maintaining of bases, EDCA was done to circumvent that by prepositioning of military equipment, VFA is to allow the US troops to come and operate those machine. Those two agreements was done during the past administration as a context of Chinese aggression in the SCS. If you see the text it had the stamp of Kurt Campbell written all over. Now Duterte use the VFA abrogation as a way to bargain with the US , to change it by excluding those onerous provision and to nullify any adventurist tendency of the US. Its our land thus our law should apply above all and one of those is a provision which state an independent foreign policy, friends to all enemy to none.

The USA will act independently of these agreements of course. We all know how they treated the world in the last 20 years.

 

[ansy1968]

The USA will act independently of these agreements of course. We all know how they treated the world in the last 20 years.

@duskseeker yes you're correct bro that is why having China there is to balance it. China rise had blasted the illusion of American Exceptionalism, as I always mentioned the world had an alternative and it is good, having only one view monopolized the conversation it limited your option, now we had a voice aided by a loud speaker (China). And the American don't like what it hears, they aren't use to humble themselves and its a new experience for them. This coming decade the US will be force to acknowledge its mistake and become a normal country again, that hubris have taken a lot of beating and American people had taken noticed of its owned vulnerability.

 

[DarkStar]

If the US wants to go Diego Garcia on Filipino or Viet territory ie just build a base there overriding the concerns of the sovereign nation, then China can and will use the UN banner to evict them.

 

[ansy1968]

If the US wants to go Diego Garcia on Filipino or Viet territory ie just build a base there overriding the concerns of the sovereign nation, then China can and will use the UN banner to evict them.

@DarkStar bro the strategic genius of those artificial island, it extended the reach of Chinese military to retaliate, The Escalatory Dominance, previously the ASEAN can rely on the US, now instead of hedging they declare themselves neutral even the mighty Vietnam rejecting American overture. With us Filipino the realization had dawn to us but it needed a generation change and for that to work the Chinese had to offer something better than the American. We Hua Qiao can help but if the Chinese offer is mirror image of the US which is hegemony then it will all come to naught. What make the Chinese stand out is that she is different from the west and as Asian we can relate.