China's SCS Strategy Thread


Oldschool

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I saw someone's youtube video on discussing the logic behind the current SCS strategy (which I dub: Boundless Ocean of the People's War/ 人民战争的汪洋大海).

If we posit that PLA feels the chances of US winning a shooting war inside SCS (which is entirely within the range of DF-26B and mostly in range of DF-21D) is at best even then this wave of greyzone warfare / People's War makes a lot of sense. It's not at all targeted at Philippines but instead a bait for the US. If the US does not get involved and they leave Philippines high and dry then globally it will be perceived as US showing their weakness and possible start of a retreat back to isolationism. Countries that depends on US for defensive pacts might rethink their strategy and some might even swing around to China' side.

if the US takes the bait and does get involved militarily than they will be fighting in China's home turf and facing all sorts of carefully laid out traps for them there. If the US loses than they again will be forced to retreat from South East Asia.

So US hegemony is threatened if they don't do anything and is also threatened if they do something but loses. They have to win a stand up fight in SCS to come out ahead and that's far from certain.
I do not think China will directly involved with US militarily.

China may use the north Korean strategy.

If US attacks NK, NK will fire at SK.

If US fires on China, China will fire at Taiwan.

China and Taiwan technically still at civil war
 

takwb

Just Hatched
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I saw someone's youtube video on discussing the logic behind the current SCS strategy (which I dub: Boundless Ocean of the People's War/ 人民战争的汪洋大海).

If we posit that PLA feels the chances of US winning a shooting war inside SCS (which is entirely within the range of DF-26B and mostly in range of DF-21D) is at best even then this wave of greyzone warfare / People's War makes a lot of sense. It's not at all targeted at Philippines but instead a bait for the US. If the US does not get involved and they leave Philippines high and dry then globally it will be perceived as US showing their weakness and possible start of a retreat back to isolationism. Countries that depends on US for defensive pacts might rethink their strategy and some might even swing around to China' side.

if the US takes the bait and does get involved militarily than they will be fighting in China's home turf and facing all sorts of carefully laid out traps for them there. If the US loses than they again will be forced to retreat from South East Asia.

So US hegemony is threatened if they don't do anything and is also threatened if they do something but loses. They have to win a stand up fight in SCS to come out ahead and that's far from certain.

If we put everything into context with the (changing) power dynamics that's happening among the great powers:
- Amerikkka is pressuring the continental Europeans by stirring up tension in Ukraine, forcing the Russians to react, which is analogous to the India Sino border kerfuffle.
So this is China is taking an seemingly offensive (but really defensive) move by pressuring Amerikkka in SCS forcing a rediversion of attention?

Typically, in this stage of the economic recovery, Amerikkka prefers to create geopolitical tensions around East Asia and Europe to force capital outflow into the "safe haven" of the US capital market.
 

Sardaukar20

Junior Member
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What do you think of the following high speed rail project in Indonesia? The Jakarta-Bandung line built by China Railway Group is scheduled to be opened in 2022. See the following Youtube video:

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The line runs a quarter of the length of Indonesia's main island (Java), and has 80 km of elevated structure and 13 tunnels and subgrades.

The line apparently will have the latest Fuxing technology with a top speed of 350 km/hr. If the new line is successful, what effect do you think it will have on anti-China attitudes in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore?
I think it is an excellent project. Even if its not a Chinese project, it would have been impressive on its own. But this being a Chinese project with some of the latest in high speed rail (HSR) technology is going to put some respect on China in ASEAN. People in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore generally desire HSR. But they also generally don't want Chinese HSR. They preffered the non-Chinese HSR like the Japanese Shinkansen HSR. The Indonesian government spent a few years of back and forth on whether to award their HSR project to Japan or China. China won the project because it had the best price, financing flexibility, and project delivery timeline. This reminds me of a famous saying in Africa: "The Westerners and Japanese would want to do a feasibility study. The Chinese would ask: when shall we start?". But the opposition pressure on the Indonesian government was still tremendous, there were protests, lawsuits, and some political infighting. The Chinese HSR project was off and on for a few years. But finally it is now going ahead. Hopefully there will be no U-turns anymore.

Malaysia and Singapore wanted HSR too, they've signed a joint agreement during the Najib administration in Malaysia. More than 90% of the HSR routes will be in Malaysia. The first route will connect the cities of Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The distance between these two is around 300km, a 3 hour drive, 4 hours by slow rail, or a 45 minute flight. HSR would make the journey around 1.5 hours, a project that makes perfect sense. Malaysia and Singapore were debating for years whether to go with Japanese or Chinese options. TBH, I don't really care, who gets the project. Hell even China doesn't really care if they lose out this project. What is most important to China, is that it could connect with the upcoming HSR route coming from Thailand in the north of Malaysia when the time comes. To complete a part of the ASEAN BRI. Eventually, there were rumours in 2018, that the Chinese option is leading the race because its just the better option overall. Many ordinary people in Malaysia and possibly Singapore were unhappy about this. They always thought that Japan>China in everything. They think that this China has lobbied and bribed to win the project. Well, then came the 2018 Malaysian election and the Malaysian government changed. This new government, led by the most Sinophobic PM in Malaysian history, Mahathir Mohammad instantly cancelled the project. There was no consultation with Singapore about this, hence Singapore was very pissed-off. Mahathir cancelled the project unilaterally for two reasons: 1) To give the middle finger to China. 2) More importantly, to deny HSR to Singapore, who is an ethnic Chinese majority country. So its actually 100% Malaysia's fault, and 0% Singapore's fault for the cancellation of the HSR project. Then the rest is history.

Anti-China sentiment in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore is not going anytime soon. The Chinese HSR project in Indonesia is proof that China is not inferior to Japan and the West in infrastructure building. But the racists will always view Chinese construction ability with contempt. Too many Malaysians still do not trust China, or just hate China. Well fine, but what then has the West, Japan, Taiwan, SK, and other democracies have offered as alternative to China? Nothing. Because they do not view Malaysia as a country worth investing in. Its just to screwed up to do FDI business in Malaysia now if you want stability and good ROI. So now Malaysia is in a whirlpool of anti-China hysteria, massive loss of FDI, and economic stagnation. A fitting punishment for idiotic hubris.
 

voyager1

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think it is an excellent project. Even if its not a Chinese project, it would have been impressive on its own. But this being a Chinese project with some of the latest in high speed rail (HSR) technology is going to put some respect on China in ASEAN. People in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore generally desire HSR. But they also generally don't want Chinese HSR. They preffered the non-Chinese HSR like the Japanese Shinkansen HSR. The Indonesian government spent a few years of back and forth on whether to award their HSR project to Japan or China. China won the project because it had the best price, financing flexibility, and project delivery timeline. This reminds me of a famous saying in Africa: "The Westerners and Japanese would want to do a feasibility study. The Chinese would ask: when shall we start?". But the opposition pressure on the Indonesian government was still tremendous, there were protests, lawsuits, and some political infighting. The Chinese HSR project was off and on for a few years. But finally it is now going ahead. Hopefully there will be no U-turns anymore.

Malaysia and Singapore wanted HSR too, they've signed a joint agreement during the Najib administration in Malaysia. More than 90% of the HSR routes will be in Malaysia. The first route will connect the cities of Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The distance between these two is around 300km, a 3 hour drive, 4 hours by slow rail, or a 45 minute flight. HSR would make the journey around 1.5 hours, a project that makes perfect sense. Malaysia and Singapore were debating for years whether to go with Japanese or Chinese options. TBH, I don't really care, who gets the project. Hell even China doesn't really care if they lose out this project. What is most important to China, is that it could connect with the upcoming HSR route coming from Thailand in the north of Malaysia when the time comes. To complete a part of the ASEAN BRI. Eventually, there were rumours in 2018, that the Chinese option is leading the race because its just the better option overall. Many ordinary people in Malaysia and possibly Singapore were unhappy about this. They always thought that Japan>China in everything. They think that this China has lobbied and bribed to win the project. Well, then came the 2018 Malaysian election and the Malaysian government changed. This new government, led by the most Sinophobic PM in Malaysian history, Mahathir Mohammad instantly cancelled the project. There was no consultation with Singapore about this, hence Singapore was very pissed-off. Mahathir cancelled the project unilaterally for two reasons: 1) To give the middle finger to China. 2) More importantly, to deny HSR to Singapore, who is an ethnic Chinese majority country. So its actually 100% Malaysia's fault, and 0% Singapore's fault for the cancellation of the HSR project. Then the rest is history.

Anti-China sentiment in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore is not going anytime soon. The Chinese HSR project in Indonesia is proof that China is not inferior to Japan and the West in infrastructure building. But the racists will always view Chinese construction ability with contempt. Too many Malaysians still do not trust China, or just hate China. Well fine, but what then has the West, Japan, Taiwan, SK, and other democracies have offered as alternative to China? Nothing. Because they do not view Malaysia as a country worth investing in. Its just to screwed up to do FDI business in Malaysia now if you want stability and good ROI. So now Malaysia is in a whirlpool of anti-China hysteria, massive loss of FDI, and economic stagnation. A fitting punishment for idiotic hubris.
It just proves that the democratic political system is not working any more and that it is in urgent need of radical reform.

China will keep skyrocketing in wealth and infrastructure in contrast to the racist countries. Eventually reality will hit them, but until then they will stagnate.
 

Sardaukar20

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I saw someone's youtube video on discussing the logic behind the current SCS strategy (which I dub: Boundless Ocean of the People's War/ 人民战争的汪洋大海).

If we posit that PLA feels the chances of US winning a shooting war inside SCS (which is entirely within the range of DF-26B and mostly in range of DF-21D) is at best even then this wave of greyzone warfare / People's War makes a lot of sense. It's not at all targeted at Philippines but instead a bait for the US. If the US does not get involved and they leave Philippines high and dry then globally it will be perceived as US showing their weakness and possible start of a retreat back to isolationism. Countries that depends on US for defensive pacts might rethink their strategy and some might even swing around to China' side.

if the US takes the bait and does get involved militarily than they will be fighting in China's home turf and facing all sorts of carefully laid out traps for them there. If the US loses than they again will be forced to retreat from South East Asia.

So US hegemony is threatened if they don't do anything and is also threatened if they do something but loses. They have to win a stand up fight in SCS to come out ahead and that's far from certain.
I see this PH diplomatic protest as just more theatrics. As long as Duterte is in power, PH will only be making noises. Even in a worse case scenario where the PH air force, navy or coast guard starts shooting at these Chinese boats. China could show some force, but things should not escalate to an all out slugfest. Unlike what happened in 2013 when PH coastguards shot and killed a Taiwanese fisherman. China is not to be messed with. The PH will quickly get on the hotline with China and try to calm things down.

The US directly coming in to help PH against China is a bluff. The US didn't help South Vietnam when there was a naval battle over the Paracel Islands with China in 1974. The US did the same when China had another naval skirmish with Vietnam in 1988. The US offered only lip service to Georgia when Russia attacked them in 2008. The US offered no military help to Ukraine when the 2018 Kerch Strait incident happened. Everyone with a brain knows the game the US is playing here. Uncle Sam just wants to have PH fight China and die on its behalf. Maybe Uncle Sam can offer intelligence and weapons. But direct intervention? Well the PH can keep waiting. No one would start WWIII for the PH, so that it could grab some islets.
 
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ansy1968

Captain
Registered Member
I think it is an excellent project. Even if its not a Chinese project, it would have been impressive on its own. But this being a Chinese project with some of the latest in high speed rail (HSR) technology is going to put some respect on China in ASEAN. People in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore generally desire HSR. But they also generally don't want Chinese HSR. They preffered the non-Chinese HSR like the Japanese Shinkansen HSR. The Indonesian government spent a few years of back and forth on whether to award their HSR project to Japan or China. China won the project because it had the best price, financing flexibility, and project delivery timeline. This reminds me of a famous saying in Africa: "The Westerners and Japanese would want to do a feasibility study. The Chinese would ask: when shall we start?". But the opposition pressure on the Indonesian government was still tremendous, there were protests, lawsuits, and some political infighting. The Chinese HSR project was off and on for a few years. But finally it is now going ahead. Hopefully there will be no U-turns anymore.

Malaysia and Singapore wanted HSR too, they've signed a joint agreement during the Najib administration in Malaysia. More than 90% of the HSR routes will be in Malaysia. The first route will connect the cities of Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The distance between these two is around 300km, a 3 hour drive, 4 hours by slow rail, or a 45 minute flight. HSR would make the journey around 1.5 hours, a project that makes perfect sense. Malaysia and Singapore were debating for years whether to go with Japanese or Chinese options. TBH, I don't really care, who gets the project. Hell even China doesn't really care if they lose out this project. What is most important to China, is that it could connect with the upcoming HSR route coming from Thailand in the north of Malaysia when the time comes. To complete a part of the ASEAN BRI. Eventually, there were rumours in 2018, that the Chinese option is leading the race because its just the better option overall. Many ordinary people in Malaysia and possibly Singapore were unhappy about this. They always thought that Japan>China in everything. They think that this China has lobbied and bribed to win the project. Well, then came the 2018 Malaysian election and the Malaysian government changed. This new government, led by the most Sinophobic PM in Malaysian history, Mahathir Mohammad instantly cancelled the project. There was no consultation with Singapore about this, hence Singapore was very pissed-off. Mahathir cancelled the project unilaterally for two reasons: 1) To give the middle finger to China. 2) More importantly, to deny HSR to Singapore, who is an ethnic Chinese majority country. So its actually 100% Malaysia's fault, and 0% Singapore's fault for the cancellation of the HSR project. Then the rest is history.

Anti-China sentiment in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore is not going anytime soon. The Chinese HSR project in Indonesia is proof that China is not inferior to Japan and the West in infrastructure building. But the racists will always view Chinese construction ability with contempt. Too many Malaysians still do not trust China, or just hate China. Well fine, but what then has the West, Japan, Taiwan, SK, and other democracies have offered as alternative to China? Nothing. Because they do not view Malaysia as a country worth investing in. Its just to screwed up to do FDI business in Malaysia now if you want stability and good ROI. So now Malaysia is in a whirlpool of anti-China hysteria, massive loss of FDI, and economic stagnation. A fitting punishment for idiotic hubris.
@Sardaukar20 they welcome China participation to forced Japan to lower their price when Japan objected they were obligated to proceed with China as you said the project is good. Indonesia under Jokowi acted on his country best interest, while others like Najib his own, China must learned to adjust her policy especially when dealing with the host corrupt officials, she must have the courage to say NO so not to tarnished its reputation.
 

Sardaukar20

Junior Member
Registered Member
@Sardaukar20 they welcome China participation to forced Japan to lower their price when Japan objected they were obligated to proceed with China as you said the project is good. Indonesia under Jokowi acted on his country best interest, while others like Najib his own, China must learned to adjust her policy especially when dealing with the host corrupt officials, she must have the courage to say NO so not to tarnished its reputation.
This I fully agree. But China's own non-interference policy limits this. Because of that, China cannot directly call out foreign politicians for corruption unless these guys have interfered in China's internal affairs. I guess as long as that policy is in effect, the best way forward is to do business first, then experience the BS first hand. Document them, then put these corrupt A-holes on a blacklist for messing with China's commercial interests. Inflict commercial penalties, but just don't go into sanctions. Let these A-holes figure a way to pay for those penalties. There are no 'democratic alternatives'. IMF and Samurai bonds will not bail them out. These idiots will be on their own, and they will eventually feel the heat when their country's economy starts shaking.
 

ansy1968

Captain
Registered Member
I see this PH diplomatic protest as just more theatrics. As long as Duterte is in power, PH will only be making noises. Even in a worse case scenario where the PH air force, navy or coast guard starts shooting at these Chinese boats. China could show some force, but things should not escalate to an all out slugfest. Unlike what happened in 2013 when PH coastguards shot and killed a Taiwanese fisherman. China is not to be messed with. The PH will quickly get on the hotline with China and try to calm things down.

The US directly coming to help PH is a bluff. The US didn't help South Vietnam when there was a naval fight with China in 1974. The US did the same when China had another naval skirmish with Vietnam in 1988. The US offered only lip service to Georgia when Russia attacked them in 2008. The US offered no military help to Ukraine when the 2018 Kerch Strait incident happened. Everyone with a brain knows the game the US is playing here. Uncle Sam just wants to have PH fight China and die on its behalf. Maybe Uncle Sam can offer intelligence and weapons. But direct intervention? Well the PH can keep waiting. No one would start WWIII for the PH, so that it could grab some islets.
@Sardaukar20 again bro good insight, you never heard any words from Duterte, why the silent, that photo was presented to him by the American and wanted Duterte to respond and act, he gave them the middle finger and tell them to shove off, the one who leaked the photo is from the DND itself with some collusion with oligarch media. So it is a coordinated plan to embarrass Duterte, will it damage his reputation, He is a teflon and a survivalist, people had trust in him and know he will not trade our dignity. Whatever China do or does she is always be under suspicion. What Duterte is doing is trying to shift public opinion against America, her hegemonic intention and complicity. The Chinese vaccine is gaining traction among the populace and the opposition need an issue to take Duterte to account what a better way for the Americans to come in and spread its propaganda.

And a side note, during that incident Foreign Affair secretary Locsin had travel to China for talks, see the timing, the Americans is trying to derail the relationship. I may predict before the end of Duterte term China and the Philippine will sign a COC in the SCS together with a gas agreement, if that happen that will be a disaster for the US as other claimant country will do the same, therefore cancelling the China threat narrative.
 
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ansy1968

Captain
Registered Member
This I fully agree. But China's own non-interference policy limits this. Because of that, China cannot directly call out foreign politicians for corruption unless these guys have interfered in China's internal affairs. I guess as long as that policy is in effect, the best way forward is to do business first, then experience the BS first hand. Document them, then put these corrupt A-holes on a blacklist for messing with China's commercial interests. Inflict commercial penalties, but just don't go into sanctions. Let these A-holes figure a way to pay for those penalties. There are no 'democratic alternatives'. IMF and Samurai bonds will not bail them out. These idiots will be on their own, and they will eventually feel the heat when their country's economy starts shaking.
@Sardaukar20 all I can say is China is learning on the job, her present African policy differ from 10 years ago as it evolves ,she accept complaint and readjust her policy accordingly and here Western negative criticism may played a part, it may leave a sour taste in one's mouth but at least it make her stay grounded.
 
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voyager1

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think that China is already now being more aggressive. The old China of always looking timid and retreating has disappeared.

Now China is furiously protecting its interests. I predict that in SCS, China will make a lot of moves to get its islands and to force ASEAN countries to stop dragging their feet on negotiating the Code of Conduct.

If these countries continue to hamstring navigations in order to get US backing then China will start make unilateral moves by itself without caring for the countries on the region
 

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