China's SCS Strategy Thread


voyager1

Junior Member
Registered Member
You said "If it look like anything in China" Yup that is the problem. High tech transportation require more than building it. It also maintenance intensive and require commitment in money and due diligence to ensure it will operate safely. But the track record of Indonesian airline is not very convincing witness the many accident in Lion air etc.
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China providing high tech transport is double edge sword. I guess in 2000's China sell MA 600 to Indonesia .And the trade minister at that time is Marie Pangestu a Chinese descent. She just happened to be there when the transaction was sealed But she was accused of giving preference to Chinese airplane . See the murky politic in Indonesia and the blame game. Saying she bought a crappy airplane from China. When actually it is due to pilot error
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Investigators then turned on the pilot who flew the plane, First Officer Vunpin. First Officer Vunpin have some experiences of delay on moving the power lever to Ground Idle during landing. On the accident flight, he aware to previous experienced and lifted the mechanical power lever stop slots during approach. He realized that he retarded the Power Lever backward at about 70 ft of aircraft altitude and unintentionally entered the Beta Range. Interviews with First Officer Vunpin revealed that he have some experiences of delay on moving the power lever to Ground Idle during landing. This experience became his belief (cognitive). First Officer Vunpin has been planned to do the flight check to be qualified First Officer, and he wanted to prove that he was qualified as a First Officer. Knowing that he had repeated the errors in the past flights, he tried to prove that he had overcome his errors. However, he unintentionally moved the power lever beyond flight idle (behavioral). The aircraft lost lift and subsequently crashed.
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(p24–25)


Mari pengestu bio. She is now managing director of World bank a Davis graduate and a Nyonya
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The same with Chinese governor of Jakarta A Hok who was accused because of many busses by Yuetong suddenly burst into fire

So I will with held the assumption the Jkt - Bdg railway will win China applause
All this is true but old habits die hard.

IMO, China will need at least a decade to start waning off its low quality goods reputation .
 

Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
You said "If it look like anything in China" Yup that is the problem. High tech transportation require more than building it. It also maintenance intensive and require commitment in money and due diligence to ensure it will operate safely. But the track record of Indonesian airline is not very convincing witness the many accident in Lion air etc.
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Well, according to
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, the financing for the Jakarta-Bandung line is "25% equity, 75% loan from CDB [China Development Bank]". So China probably owns a chunk of the new railroad, and will maintain the system properly. (See the
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developed specifically for the high speed railroad network.)
 

Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
Well, according to
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, the financing for the Jakarta-Bandung line is "25% equity, 75% loan from CDB [China Development Bank]". So China probably owns a chunk of the new railroad, and will maintain the system properly. (See the
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developed specifically for the high speed railroad network.)
It is a loan with no state guarantee. If they ever default god forbid CDB will be holding a bag. Only Chinese are stout heart to invest in Indonesia
 

t2contra

Major
Yep. The early 2000s with the unrestricted GDP growth and lax regulations did tremendous harm on China's reputation on the world for low-quality goods.

If it now manages to show that it can export high-quality high-tech goods (something big that the public can see) then it would be a big reputational boost for China

Can't agree more. I always wonder why the Chinese government never take this problem seriously.
 

Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
it is so enjoyable to read the comments and opinions and differing viewpoints in the last few pages from members.
very informative and educational posts, thank you.
and all discussions done under very calm and friendly manners, and civil to each other, salute to you all.
I realize how hard and difficult it is for the Chinese Government to win hearts and souls under constant western MSM bashing and demonizing day in and day out. Therefore a great achievement already to see staunch anti-communist Indonesia adopting the Chinese HSR system, and the signing of RCEP. Hats off to the Foreign Affairs Ministry in Beijing.
I still believe China should be patient to its neighbours, after all a giant elephant living next to you is naturally a big cause of concern and suspicion.
invasion and colonialism is not in Chinese culture or DNA, history shows that China only reacts to foreign provocation and aggression as exemplified by the Great Wall, which is really a symbol of self defense and preservation.
therefore the popular saying in China nowadays which also reflects the reactive nature in its dealings :
if friends come visiting, greet them with good wines and foods.
if wolves come visiting, greet them with hunting rifles.
It pays to be friends with China, Asia !
 

ansy1968

Captain
Registered Member
it is so enjoyable to read the comments and opinions and differing viewpoints in the last few pages from members.
very informative and educational posts, thank you.
and all discussions done under very calm and friendly manners, and civil to each other, salute to you all.
I realize how hard and difficult it is for the Chinese Government to win hearts and souls under constant western MSM bashing and demonizing day in and day out. Therefore a great achievement already to see staunch anti-communist Indonesia adopting the Chinese HSR system, and the signing of RCEP. Hats off to the Foreign Affairs Ministry in Beijing.
I still believe China should be patient to its neighbours, after all a giant elephant living next to you is naturally a big cause of concern and suspicion.
invasion and colonialism is not in Chinese culture or DNA, history shows that China only reacts to foreign provocation and aggression as exemplified by the Great Wall, which is really a symbol of self defense and preservation.

therefore the popular saying in China nowadays which also reflects the reactive nature in its dealings :
if friends come visiting, greet them with good wines and foods.
if wolves come visiting, greet them with hunting rifles.
It pays to be friends with China, Asia !
@Jono and those artificial island in the SCS is another GREAT WALL 2.0. It is easy and cheaper for China to invade one of those occupied island and build from there that is the usual Western practices and is what they expect China will do. Instead they choose the harder part and build on their occupied reefs, It shows China determination and engineering capability and it had an effect on the psychology of all claimant nation and in Washington. The battle is already won without fighting straight from Sun Tzu , the SCS had become a Chinese lake and all claimants had accepted the stark reality. A SCS COC will be an icing on the cake that is were all the ruckus is all about, if ASEAN agreed on a COC frame work, The west FON and their justification will come to naught.
 

Temstar

Senior Member
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I saw someone's youtube video on discussing the logic behind the current SCS strategy (which I dub: Boundless Ocean of the People's War/ 人民战争的汪洋大海).

If we posit that PLA feels the chances of US winning a shooting war inside SCS (which is entirely within the range of DF-26B and mostly in range of DF-21D) is at best even then this wave of greyzone warfare / People's War makes a lot of sense. It's not at all targeted at Philippines but instead a bait for the US. If the US does not get involved and they leave Philippines high and dry then globally it will be perceived as US showing their weakness and possible start of a retreat back to isolationism. Countries that depends on US for defensive pacts might rethink their strategy and some might even swing around to China' side.

if the US takes the bait and does get involved militarily than they will be fighting in China's home turf and facing all sorts of carefully laid out traps for them there. If the US loses than they again will be forced to retreat from South East Asia.

So US hegemony is threatened if they don't do anything and is also threatened if they do something but loses. They have to win a stand up fight in SCS to come out ahead and that's far from certain.
 

Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
It is a loan with no state guarantee. If they ever default god forbid CDB will be holding a bag. Only Chinese are stout heart to invest in Indonesia

There is no guarantee from Indonesia's government, but that says nothing about what China's government has said to the bank. If the Indonesians default, the Chinese government could bail out the China Development Bank; this seems likely to me as the Jakarta-Bandung HSR is clearly one of Beijing's political goals.

However, I doubt Indonesia will default, as they'll need a lot of investment: $500 billion just on infrastructure, never mind anything else. If they default, they will lose that investment from China. The Japanese import a lot of oil from Indonesia, so perhaps they might want to help, but their debt is already several times their total GDP, and they probably can't afford it. That is likely why they demanded a guarantee from Indonesia's government for Jakarta-Bandung: they couldn't afford to lose the $6 billion. China can.

If not Japan, who else can afford to invest $500 billion? I don't see anyone. Therefore I think the Indonesians will try very hard to hold up their end of the deal. Besides, the loan is cheap: 2% interest for $3 to $4 billion, 3% for the rest. Indonesia is getting the high speed railroad almost for free. What debt trap?
 
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Laviduce

New Member
Registered Member
Russia is a rogue nation.
How is Russia a rogue nation? Russia responded to the illegal US coup in Ukraine in 2014 by A) supporting eastern Ukrainians in their fight against the US installed regime and B) reunifying with Crimea. Russia was invited to Syria while the US and its terrorist proxies were not. The US still illegally occupies Syria.

If Russia is a rogue nation than what is the US with their wars and coups of aggression, funding of terrorists, pervasive global misinformation and propaganda, pervasive and malign global espionage, economic warfare and extortion, etc.?
 

Laviduce

New Member
Registered Member
Rogue was probably too strong of a word. I would rather use crude or more unsophisticated. Their operations are too much on your face, they are too visible when they intervene in contrast with the US which stays undercover (but more dangerous) and is helped by the media of course.
Was the US "sophisticated" with their illegal invasion of Iraq, their destruction of Libya, their attempt to destroy Syria, their illegal coup in Ukraine, their crude Anti-Russia/China propaganda, etc. ? These "sophisticated" actions have cost the lives of well over 150 000 people, created millions of refugees, trillions in damages and made the world a far more dangerous place. Does the world really need more of this US "covert sophistication" ?
 

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