China's SCS Strategy Thread

[solarz]

Indeed, if Duterte continues on his current course — downplaying the legally binding decision of the Hague tribunal and watering down his own country’s territorial claims — his honeymoon with voters could end quickly. The Philippines remains one of the most pro-American countries in the world; in one recent survey, a whopping 92 percent of the population held positive attitudes towards the U.S. And some of the most pro-American Filipinos are to be found in the military, which looks to the American security relationship to counter Chinese bullying — which might help to explain why Duterte has been busily showering top officers with favors and cash.

Wishful thinking and equivocation fallacy.

Downplaying the arbitration and "watering down" his country's territorial claims does not equate to anti-americanism, so why would so-called "pro-american" Filipinos turn against him?

Nevermind the fact that those two accusations are BS themselves.

Duterte has correctly read that the US currently needs the PH more than the PH needs the US, and is using it as a negotiation leverage.

The American mistake is to continue to treat PH as a vassal state. Every single US statement directed at PH is full of holier-than-thou condescension, each argument based on the assumption that the US "knows better".

I remember one article questioning why Duterte feels compelled to launch a war on drugs, when the PH has a drug-use rate no worse than the US. This was just a few days before photos of American parents ODing on heroine in front of their young children began showing up on the internet.

 

[Blackstone]

Duterte will soon visit China . He bring a huge economic delegation(400) to China which is naturally consist of large Phillipino Chinese contingent.
This article below unjustly blame Phillipino Chinese for Duerte turn around

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.
When the likely cause is maybe Duterte left leaning inclination from his university day. Though he himself also has Chinese heritage from his mother side like so many of Phillipino elite.
For a community that is often subject to kidnapping and extortion. It is no secret why the Phillipino Chinese like Duerte. It has nothing to do with his turning back on US

And they hint or hope for regime change

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The Philippine president is determined to forge closer ties with China — but at what cost?

I think Duterte is doing a good job setting up parameters necessary to play the great powers against each other. By that I mean he's creating strategic space for his 'small power' nation by manuvering the great powers against each other, while gaining benefits from both and not upsetting either side too much.

The reason for Duterte's action is as long as China's economy continues to grow at multiples of US economy, the center of power gravity will continue to shift towards Beijing. That's reality and not fantasy, and he knows it all too well. Ergo, he'll do whatever he thinks necessary to appease China and stay on its good side, while not pushing US away too much, so Washington will continue to stick around and balance Beijing. The 'learned' in US castigate Duterte as a bumbling fool, but evidence suggest he's crazy like a fox.

 

[Janiz]

I think Duterte is doing a good job setting up parameters necessary to play the great powers against each other. By that I mean he's creating strategic space for his 'small power' nation by manuvering the great powers against each other, while gaining benefits from both and not upsetting either side too much.

Yes, and he does that at minimal cost: talking. Just talking.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

First posted by Don Juan
Only China can help Philippines’: Duterte turns to Beijing as rift with US widens
Yup that is right Phillipine priority is not to become pawn in great power competition, but to improve Filipino life which has fallen behind from their neighbor. Only China can help together with Filipino Chinese.
And I am glad Global times in its editorial today support that


Published time: 18 Oct, 2016 01:45

Historically one of the staunchest US allies, the Philippines is pivoting to China, as President Rodrigo Duterte prepares for his first state visit to Beijing, and has proposed not just an economic, but a military partnership with the country’s giant neighbor.


READ MORE: Duterte snubs Washington, looks forward to historic China visit

"My grandfather is Chinese. It's only China that can help us," Duterte, who was elected in June, told Chinese state news agency Xinhua before embarking on a four-day trip that begins Tuesday.

"All that I would need to do is just to talk and get a firm handshake from the officials and say that we are Filipinos and we are ready to cooperate with you, to help us in building our economy and building our country."

Duterte said that the Philippines, whose GDP per capita has rapidly fallen behind that of its eastern neighbor since the turn of millennium, said that he had big infrastructure plans for his homeland, that couldn’t be realized “for lack of the capital stock.”

"If we can have the things you have given to other countries by the way of assistance, we'd also like to be a part of it and to be a part of the greater plans of China about the whole of Asia, particularly Southeast Asia," said the 71-year-old leader.

Duterte also promised to avoid inflaming the ongoing dispute about ownership of the South China Sea, over which both Beijing and Manila have a claim.

“There is no sense in going to war. There is no sense fighting over a body of water,” said Duterte of the lucrative shipping route, which could also become a major source of hydrocarbons. “It is better to talk than war. We want to talk about friendship, we want to talk about cooperation, and most of all, we want to talk about business. War would lead us to nowhere.”

In a pointed remark, the Filipino leader said that any negotiations would take place without mediators hostile to China – presumably Japan and the US. Washington has realigned its own geopolitical strategy to confront Beijing’s growing regional might.

READ MORE: ‘About time we change rules’: Philippines’ Duterte vows to chart independent foreign policy

"We are not interested in allowing another country to talk. I just want to talk to China," said Duterte.

Duterte has announced that the country would no longer stage joint war games with the US, the country that has several bases inside the country, and supplies almost all of its military equipment.

"I have given enough time for the Americans to play with the Filipino soldiers,” Duterte told Hong Kong-based Phoenix Television. "This will be the last. It has been programmed. I do not want my soldiers to be humiliated."

Instead, he told the TV station he was open to drills alongside Russian and Chinese troops.

Since his election, Duterte has been engaged in a war of words with Washington focused largely on his hardline tactics in combating drug crime in the Philippines, which the US say violate human rights. He even called the US President Barack Obama a “son of a whore” when speaking to the media, but later downplayed the comment, saying it was not meant to be a personal insult.

Duterte has already indicated that he was willing to turn to China if the West’s attitude toward his government would not change. During a speech in Brunei, Duterte said he was not “angry” with the US, the EU and the United Nations for challenging his approach, but in his interview he contrasted their attitude to that of Beijing’s.

“Some other countries know we are short of money, but instead of helping us, all they had to do was just to criticize. China never criticizes. They help us quietly. And I said that's why it's part of the sincerity of the people,” Duterte told Xinhua.

 

[PanAsian]

Probably stating the obvious but still a good development if it happens. Note the persistent conflation of civilian vs military "free navigation" for the China threat slant.

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SOUTH CHINA SEA | Tue Oct 18, 2016 | 10:07am EDT
Exclusive: China may give Filipino fishermen access to Scarborough

By Benjamin Kang Lim and Ben Blanchard | BEIJING
China will consider giving Filipino fishermen conditional access to disputed waters in the South China Sea after the presidents of the two countries meet in Beijing this week, two Chinese sources with ties to the leadership said.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte plans to raise the plight of Filipino fishermen when he meets his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, on Thursday, a Philippine official told Reuters.

China seized Scarborough Shoal - claimed by Beijing as Huangyan island and by Manila as Panatag - in 2012, denying Philippine fishermen access to its rich fishing grounds.

The seizure formed part of a case the Philippines took to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, which in July rejected China's territorial claims over much of the South China Sea, including its assertion of a 200-mile (320 km) exclusive economic zone around the disputed Spratly Islands.

China immediately declared the ruling "null and void" but said it was time to get talks started again between the countries directly involved in the territorial disputes to reach a peaceful resolution.

Arriving at his hotel in Beijing, Duterte told reporters he expected to achieve "plenty of happiness for my country" during his trip to China.

Asked about the South China Sea dispute, he said: "No, that is not one of the topics on the agenda. It might crop up but it is going to be a soft landing for everyone. No impositions."

"EVERYBODY CAN GO"

Beijing is now considering making a concession to Duterte, whose rapprochement with China since taking office on June 30 marks an astonishing reversal in recent Philippine foreign policy.

"Everybody can go, but there will be conditions," one of the Chinese sources who speaks regularly with senior officials told Reuters, referring to Chinese and Filipino fishermen.

Asked what the conditions were, the source said: "The two countries would have to form working groups to iron out details."

It was unclear, however, if China would agree to joint coastguard patrols.

The sources did not say what, if anything, China might demand from Manila in exchange for the fishing concession.

"It will be a return to the Arroyo days," the second Chinese source said, referring to the administration of former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (2001-2010), when fishermen from both countries had access to waters near Scarborough Shoal.

If all goes according to script, fishery cooperation would be one of more than 10 broad framework agreements the two countries would sign during Duterte's visit, the sources said, without giving further details.

The Philippine foreign ministry said it had "no comment at this time".

FREE NAVIGATION

China has overlapping claims in the South China Sea with Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam.

The United States, along with Japan and other powers, want to ensure Beijing doesn't interfere with free navigation in the strategic South China Sea, which connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans and through which flows $5 trillion of trade a year.

U.S. Navy ships have conducted "freedom of navigation" operations around artificial islands China has been building in the disputed Spratly Islands, which mostly consist of coral reefs and tidal features in the South China Sea.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi did not answer directly, when Reuters asked on Tuesday whether China would offer any concessions to the Philippines on the South China Sea, including fishing rights around Scarborough Shoal.

"China's position on the South China Sea is clear and consistent. There is no change and there will be no change. This position accords with historical facts and international law," Wang said at a news conference with his New Zealand counterpart.

"HISTORIC VISIT"

Wang, however, was upbeat about Duterte's trip.

"This will be a historic visit and a new beginning in China-Philippines relations," the foreign minister said.

China's ambassador to Manila, Zhao Jianhua, said last Friday a budding bilateral friendship could boost chances of removing one of their biggest bones of contention in the South China Sea.

But on Sunday, Duterte said he would raise the Hague ruling and vowed not to surrender any sovereignty, comments that will not sit comfortably with Beijing.

Philippine Supreme Court senior associate justice Antonio Carpio warned that Duterte could be impeached if he gives up the country's sovereignty over the Scarborough Shoal, according to Philippine media.

China's objective is to jointly develop resources in the South China Sea with its neighbors, said Lu Xiang, an international relations expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think-tank. "Disputes with any neighbor are not conducive for China," he said, when asked what China wanted in exchange for any concession to Duterte.

"We need a better external environment," Lu said.

(Additional reporting by Natalie Thomas; Editing by Bill Tarrant)

 

[solarz]

In a pointed remark, the Filipino leader said that any negotiations would take place without mediators hostile to China – presumably Japan and the US. Washington has realigned its own geopolitical strategy to confront Beijing’s growing regional might.

READ MORE: ‘About time we change rules’: Philippines’ Duterte vows to chart independent foreign policy

"We are not interested in allowing another country to talk. I just want to talk to China," said Duterte.

In other words, bilateral talks just like China has always said from the beginning.

 

[Blackstone]

In other words, bilateral talks just like China has always said from the beginning.

There was never any doubt of SCS ending up closer to what Beijing wanted, rather than to what Washington and allies hoped, because the issue is a matter of survival for the Communist mandarins in Beijing, but for Beltway mandarins, it's a matter of choice and always was.

All the so-called freedom of the sea lanes blathering to brand China as a dangerous actor bent on conquest failed, not for lack of trying, but because western nations never believed in so-called international "rule of law" for themselves, therefore they have no moral high ground to stand on when others highlight their hypocrisy. Which leaves 'right of might' as their last resort, but that only works if 1) they are still the most mighty, and 2) they are willing to sustain hegemony with force. There's no question item 1 is still true, but poll after poll show most Americans no longer support item 2; and that's the whole enchilada.

 

[Iron Man]

There was never any doubt of SCS ending up closer to what Beijing wanted, rather than to what Washington and allies hoped, because the issue is a matter of survival for the Communist mandarins in Beijing, but for Beltway mandarins, it's a matter of choice and always was.

SCS has never been a matter of "survival" for the "Communist mandarins" in Beijing.

 

[weig2000]

People should never assume that just because someone has Chinese blood or is even ethnically Chinese, she/he will be automatically pro-China. There are countless counterexamples.

Among the recent Philippine presidents, Corazon Aquino, Benigno Aquino III, and Rodrigo Duterte all have Chinese blood, yet their China policies couldn't be more different. Among Southeast Asian states, Singapore is the only country whose population is majority ethical Chinese and whose leaders have always been Chinese, yet

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, even though they proclaim they pursue a balanced policy between the two (interesting recent developments in Sion-Singapore relationship, a topic worth a separate discussion).

Duterte's change of heart towards China is not because he is fundamentally pro-China or anti-US, it is because he realizes, after going through the rough patch of last few years, that as a "small country" (we'll have a call a country close to 100 million population small here), Philippines would benefit most by pursuing a relatively neutral and balanced policy between the two giants and Philippines's one-sided policy of last few years are dangerous and to no avail. After the PCA ruling in July, it is widely expected China would build island on Scarborough Shoal and even declare SCS ADIZ down the road (see Wu Shicun, Director of Nanhai Institute's comments during the recent Xiangshan Forum in Beijing). The getting-rough-with-China policy only pushes the Philippines deeper into Uncle Sam's embrace, introducing more US military personnel and bases onto her territory, and misses any benefits by cooperating with China.

And it's not clear that you would benefit more from getting tough with China or by cooperating with China, the records so far favors the latter approach. Vietnam settled it land border dispute and the sea border in Gulf of Tonkin with China amicably (thus removing two dashes from the original eleven dashes), without the backing of the US carrier groups, the illegal ruling of PCA, or indeed the "rule-based international order," whatever that means. It's hardly an isolated case, according to MIT professor M. Taylor Fravel,

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.

 

[solarz]

And it's not clear that you would benefit more from getting tough with China or by cooperating with China, the records so far favors the latter approach.

More than just a detente between two nations, the current China-Philippines rapprochement is a litmus test for China's diplomatic campaign. If the Philippines benefit from their pivot to China, then it will show that China is a credible alternative to the US in the region.

The consequence of that would be more nations following PH footsteps.