China's Defense Spending Thread

[tamsen_ikard]

I do want China to increase military budget but I hope China spends that money to research more advanced military technology rather than just build up more numbers.

China is on the cusp of a tech breakthrough. They can leapfrog the west in military tech.

So, they should not build too much of the old stuff now. They should leapfrog the west and then build up numbers rapidly.

 

[ForcedTrend]

If you want enough missiles to flatten everything in Westpac (including land targets), high-end missiles are too expensive.

In contrast, if China were to ramp up Geran production to Russian or Iranian levels, that would be over 60K per month, and would cost less than $2 Billion. After a year, that would be 720K munitions, which is way overkill for Westpac.

drones are not enough. during war they will hit the mainland as much as they can and china needs to be able to hit their mainland too

 

[...........]

drones are not enough. during war they will hit the mainland as much as they can and china needs to be able to hit their mainland too

Exactly Hawaii, Guam, Alaska the whole west coast should be in danger and you will see how much those warmongering fools will don't want a war once they realize they are not safe in the usa I keep saying this but the only reason usa does things like this it's cause their Homeland is never attack only 9/11 and look how they cried when thats not even half the shit they do to other countries is done to them they only like war cause they conus is never attacked

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

I do want China to increase military budget but I hope China spends that money to research more advanced military technology rather than just build up more numbers.

China is on the cusp of a tech breakthrough. They can leapfrog the west in military tech.

So, they should not build too much of the old stuff now. They should leapfrog the west and then build up numbers rapidly.

Surprising to see this coming from you- but good to see you have learned.

 

[magmunta]

China could pump out 30k ballistic missiles in a year.

Where did you get this number from? Or what type of missiles? MLRS unguided missiles or df-27 beasts? I think you threw out this number out of the thin air.

 

[kentchang]

Exactly Hawaii, Guam, Alaska the whole west coast should be in danger and you will see how much those warmongering fools will don't want a war once they realize they are not safe in the usa I keep saying this but the only reason usa does things like this it's cause their Homeland is never attack only 9/11 and look how they cried when thats not even half the shit they do to other countries is done to them they only like war cause they conus is never attacked

Long ago I remember reading an article stating that using SSN's as hunter-killers in the 2030s will be a total waste given the lower-than-background noise levels that all advanced nations would have achieved. SSN's role is evolving into very long range stealthy missile delivery platform. One can extend that to fully submerged arsenal ships. Russia already openly showed off its options like the Poseidon. The usefulness to bring meaningful threat/destruction by conventional firepower to both the West and East US coasts is a no-brainer. China already demo'ed its FOBS but that will remain very expensive in the foreseeable future. It is not far-fetched to imagine station a large fleet of UL-AUVs as drone/cheaper munition motherships between Hawaii and San Diego. How about using standard containers to carry hundreds of missiles/drones? All these not-so-original scenarios suggest planners have been studying how to bring the fight to CONUS for a very long time already. As starters, a few dozen VLS-carrying SSNs will do nicely. 24 x 20 is already close to 500 aim points.

 

[sunnymaxi]

Not really sure why people are concerned, PLA is currently capable of procuring ~100 J-20s per year, high tens of 4.5th generation and J-35 per year, 5-6 destroyers, 3-4 SSNs and whatever PLAGF is buying while also funding costs for development of CVNs, 6th generation fighters and a bunch of other miscellaneous projects with it's current budget. Most of our projections for future military strength is also based current growth trends and even then, it shows PLA likely operating the largest and most modern tactical aircraft fleet by 2030 with overall military parity possible by as soon as 2035.

They really should instead double down and accelerate sectors where China is still noticeably behind western counterparts like Spaceflight, semiconductors and advanced biomedical technology while putting more resources to increase overall QoL of citizens and increase internal circulation to boost demand and ensure a stable economic growth for the foreseeable future rather than just go "moar missiles".

China's national R&D budget is twice as total PLA annual budget.

China's total R&D investment exceeded 3.92 trillion yuan (about 569 billion U.S. dollars) in 2025, reaching 2.8 percent of GDP, Ministry of Science and Technology announced yesterday. surpassing the average of OECD economies for the first time.

as you said they should spend/double down its spending in other sectors where they are currently behind. this is what exactly China doing right now and we are already getting results.

 

[didklmyself]

Guys here advocating for a massive defense spending increase, which area of spending can PRC afford to decrease? Industrial Policy and subsidies? Education and healthcare? RnD? Infrastructure?
There just isn't a way to not compromise future development, US military is built on top of these sacrifices and that has led to the current situation - it would have been worse(it will in the future) if not for US's historic gap vs ROW.

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

If you want enough missiles to flatten everything in Westpac (including land targets), high-end missiles are too expensive.

In contrast, if China were to ramp up Geran production to Russian or Iranian levels, that would be over 60K per month, and would cost less than $2 Billion. After a year, that would be 720K munitions, which is way overkill for Westpac.

If the Taiwan conflict ever evolve into a war of attrition, the PLA would probably be begging for such “overkill” capabilities. Got to keep in mind that both Japan and South Korea also have the capacity to churn out loiter munitions and cruise missiles en masses.

Having said that, the current 1.27% is indeed a joke from China’s angle. During the Cold War, the USSR maintained 4-digit ICBM and IRBM launchers, a 4-digit size navy with comprised mostly of expandable missiles boats and submarines, and a 5 million strong personnel size. And that was the bare minimum needed to deter NATO. It costed Moscow roughly 20% of its GDP and its economy. Due to automation and AI, the PLA may not need a 5 million strong military. However, it does need way more missile and loiter munitions launchers (thus, brigades), smart but cheap and expendable platforms, pilots (both helicopters and fixed wing), etc. At the infantry level, knowing how to drive a truck across rough terrains and operate an FPV drone should be part of basic training. This is to prepare for the possible scenario of a Taiwan conflict turning into a protracted war whilst India joining the fray by opening up a new front in the Himalayas.

 

[AndrewS]

If the Taiwan conflict ever evolve into a war of attrition, the PLA would probably be begging for such “overkill” capabilities. Got to keep in mind that both Japan and South Korea also have the capacity to churn out loiter munitions and cruise missiles en masses.

Having said that, the current 1.27% is indeed a joke from China’s angle. During the Cold War, the USSR maintained 4-digit ICBM and IRBM launchers, a 4-digit size navy with comprised mostly of expandable missiles boats and submarines, and a 5 million strong personnel size. And that was the bare minimum needed to deter NATO. It costed Moscow roughly 20% of its GDP and its economy. Due to automation and AI, the PLA may not need a 5 million strong military. However, it does need way more missile and loiter munitions launchers (thus, brigades), smart but cheap and expendable platforms, pilots (both helicopters and fixed wing), etc. At the infantry level, knowing how to drive a truck across rough terrains and operate an FPV drone should be part of basic training. This is to prepare for the possible scenario of a Taiwan conflict turning into a protracted war whilst India joining the fray by opening up a new front in the Himalayas.

Japan and South Korea don't have the capacity.

Japan is roughly 11x smaller, and South Korea about 28x smaller than China.
So you have to scale their production capacity downwards

Plus Japan and South Korea will be under an effective blockade if China is launching over 60K munitions per month, just from Shaheeds.

---

The USSR was trying to match the USA, Europe, China and Japan at the same time.
That is not the case today with China.

Also, I don't think China needs more missile brigades for low-cost munitions. The issue is producing enough munitions as a single brigade that does 5 salvoes daily is going to launch 600 Shaheeds. That is already 18K per month.