China's Defense Spending Thread

[Michaelsinodef]

In recent years, some CSIS simulations have included nuclear warfare tactics such as bombing beaches with tactical nuclear weapons. I think you need to understand how low the US's bottom line is.

Nuclear expansion is not a future event, but an ongoing process.

I have never been against expansion of China's nuclear arsenal.

Nor someone saying that china should not respond to tactical nukes from US.

Also, China is currently expanding nuclear weapons, but dunno if it gets reported and categorized as part of the national defense spending.
Might be in some other secret budget.

 

[Franklin]

China's official military budget is just little over 1,3% of GDP. But if you add other off budget items like pensions, R&D, imports and construction then you will come closer to 2% of GDP. I'm not even counting the space program and the PAP that are under PLA control but those have other purposes and tasks and are not strictly just for PLA use.

 

[NorthKimBestKim]

The adversary does not need to fly manned aircraft in Chinese airspace to be able to attack the Chinese mainland. Stand off munitions can be used from hundreds or thousands of miles away. Are you proposing to nuke Taiwan/Japan if missiles (or even drones, in Taiwan's case) strike targets on mainland China?

I am purposing to do the same thing that the U.S. also would have done today. Whatever the U.S. would have done if someone bombs the continental U.S. with conventional weapons (which hasn't happened for many decades - if ever, besides Hawaii, and we know how that ended - with nukes), is the same approach the PRC should take.

There is no reason for PRC to accept any missiles flying into the mainland.

Even when Mao was alive in early 1950s and PRC was no where near any nukes, he still decided to confront the only superpower at that time to help DPRK and not allow the U.S. to reach PRC border permanently.

Today, and in the near future, the bar should be a lot higher than allowing the U.S. troops being anywhere near the coast of PRC.

Regarding your comment about "several thousands of miles away". Sure, they can strike, but PRC can strike the same way back.

However, when it comes to "several hundred miles", that is something PRC should never tolerate, and PRC should aim to wipe brutally out everything within that range. An economy with 43,5 Trillion GDP PPP cruising towards 50 Trillion GDP PPP should NOT tolerate being bombed anywhere close to mainland.

In a case of war, the aim of PRC should be to advance brutally and rapidly and decimate / wipe out everything without any mercy - total massacre on enemy forces. Because that same enemy would show PRC no mercy either which is Trump regime, aggressive Japan and DPP-extremists.

Iran has to take the pounding because they are far weaker. Iran is not taking this pounding because Iran thinks it "is funny" or because "it is smart". Iran is taking the pounding because they have no other choice to stop the U.S. and Israeli air brutality that is showing no mercy on Iran.

PRC should not tolerate any of this. The goal is simple: Build up nuclear arsenal to the same level as Russia + build up conventional forces that makes the U.S. shit in their pants every night.

It is irrelevant how many interceptors U.S. can produce. What is relevant is that PRC should have 20 to 25 times more missiles for every interceptor bullshit U.S. can produce.

PRC should never aim for "parity" with the enemy - PRC should aim for overwhelming superior dominance. The position the PRC is in is something a country may only have a luxury to experience once every 200 to 250 years - if ever, after failing to stop the enemy the first time, and you know what I am talking about, the second half of 18th century and all the way to 1949 which is still an issue today. A certain island taken over by DPP-extremists.

 

[GiantCanofWater]

the United States is increasingly erratic and the world order is breaking down. International law holds no weight anymore. The US is doing whatever they want and nobody is stopping them. I find this time to be increasingly risky that the US might start a war with China as they only have so much time to do so before it’s impossible. We can’t expect them to act rational since their government is full of China hawks. China needs to shrink the window. The rare earths and Iran may take them out for a couple years. But they may come back afterwards. Hence why I think pushing the 6th gens out J-20 style in 2030 or before and increasing defence spending primarily for production (ie, more boosting to J-20 and J-35 production rates right now and massively stockpiling on the new high end missiles and current missiles and drones) will be important for short term contingencies. If China can hoard enough missiles to flatten everything in westpac and still have enough to spam as many missiles as they want at carriers by the time the US comes back then they’re completely screwed. Even the dumbest of China hawks are going to have to think twice and give up or die. Establish overwhelming dominance as soon as possible and having a cosmic horror sized missile magazine is the quickest and easiest way to do it.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

However, when it comes to "several hundred miles", that is something PRC should never tolerate, and PRC should aim to wipe brutally out everything within that range. An economy with 43,5 Trillion GDP PPP cruising towards 50 Trillion GDP PPP should NOT tolerate being bombed anywhere close to mainland

Taiwan, Okinawa, Korea are literally a few hundred miles away. The coast is massive, it is impossible to prevent every single stealth bomber and sub from getting within 1000 miles.

 

[bsdnf]

the United States is increasingly erratic and the world order is breaking down. International law holds no weight anymore. The US is doing whatever they want and nobody is stopping them. I find this time to be increasingly risky that the US might start a war with China as they only have so much time to do so before it’s impossible. We can’t expect them to act rational since their government is full of China hawks. China needs to shrink the window. The rare earths and Iran may take them out for a couple years. But they may come back afterwards. Hence why I think pushing the 6th gens out J-20 style in 2030 or before and increasing defence spending primarily for production (ie, more boosting to J-20 and J-35 production rates right now and massively stockpiling on the new high end missiles and current missiles and drones) will be important for short term contingencies. If China can hoard enough missiles to flatten everything in westpac and still have enough to spam as many missiles as they want at carriers by the time the US comes back then they’re completely screwed. Even the dumbest of China hawks are going to have to think twice and give up or die. Establish overwhelming dominance as soon as possible and having a cosmic horror sized missile magazine is the quickest and easiest way to do it.

I think the biggest lesson from Iran and Venezuela is that major military powers need proactive air and naval power, not just missiles.

During the first two decades when the PLA faced significant gaps in naval and air power, the Rocket Force provided invaluable deterrence capabilities. But the PLA must inevitably venture into the oceans, and it is now doing so.

Or to put it more bluntly, the PLA's long-term ambitions extend far beyond the Western Pacific, overinvesting in the number of weapons the Rocket Force possesses is not a good idea.

 

[fishrubber99]

I'm not sure if anyone has added this point to the discussion yet but massively increasing the military budget when the PLA is undergoing a large scale anti-corruption campaign would seem contradictory. You need to make sure the money provided to the military is being used effectively first before you can comfortably increase spending. With this in context, a 7% increase is actually not a low amount and is pretty appropriate.

 

[manqiangrexue]

First of all, announcing your military budget went up 40% in a year is not a power move; it's a desperate tactic to look tough. Hardly any military, especially not a military of a country that sucks at building things, can properly use the extra funds without a significant period of prior planning. Having your military budget grow steadily is a sign that proper planning was put into place for the long term and things have not trascended from that realm.

Secondly, China's military budget is not transparent. China regards this number as something useful to enemy intelligence so the actual budget does not have to be accurately disclosed and does not have to remain static throughout the year. When money can be correctly used for a boost in certain areas, when oppertunities present themselves, the funding opens up. Unlike the West, the funding does not determine the progress but the progress and need determine the funding. That is actual depth and intellect. Broke stupid mofos who come into some money love it when being asked what their budget it so they can shout it out and be proud. Wealthy people don't answer the question, "What's your budget?" in any straight fashion when making big purchases. "My budget depends on what you can offer," is the answer.

 

[Tomboy]

Not really sure why people are concerned, PLA is currently capable of procuring ~100 J-20s per year, high tens of 4.5th generation and J-35 per year, 5-6 destroyers, 3-4 SSNs and whatever PLAGF is buying while also funding costs for development of CVNs, 6th generation fighters and a bunch of other miscellaneous projects with it's current budget. Most of our projections for future military strength is also based current growth trends and even then, it shows PLA likely operating the largest and most modern tactical aircraft fleet by 2030 with overall military parity possible by as soon as 2035.

They really should instead double down and accelerate sectors where China is still noticeably behind western counterparts like Spaceflight, semiconductors and advanced biomedical technology while putting more resources to increase overall QoL of citizens and increase internal circulation to boost demand and ensure a stable economic growth for the foreseeable future rather than just go "moar missiles".

 

[AndrewS]

the United States is increasingly erratic and the world order is breaking down. International law holds no weight anymore. The US is doing whatever they want and nobody is stopping them. I find this time to be increasingly risky that the US might start a war with China as they only have so much time to do so before it’s impossible. We can’t expect them to act rational since their government is full of China hawks. China needs to shrink the window. The rare earths and Iran may take them out for a couple years. But they may come back afterwards. Hence why I think pushing the 6th gens out J-20 style in 2030 or before and increasing defence spending primarily for production (ie, more boosting to J-20 and J-35 production rates right now and massively stockpiling on the new high end missiles and current missiles and drones) will be important for short term contingencies. If China can hoard enough missiles to flatten everything in westpac and still have enough to spam as many missiles as they want at carriers by the time the US comes back then they’re completely screwed. Even the dumbest of China hawks are going to have to think twice and give up or die. Establish overwhelming dominance as soon as possible and having a cosmic horror sized missile magazine is the quickest and easiest way to do it.

If you want enough missiles to flatten everything in Westpac (including land targets), high-end missiles are too expensive.

In contrast, if China were to ramp up Geran production to Russian or Iranian levels, that would be over 60K per month, and would cost less than $2 Billion. After a year, that would be 720K munitions, which is way overkill for Westpac.