Set sail to Taiwan without air superiority?
The Japanese island Yonaguni is 65 miles from Taiwan. Most of the route from Okinawa to Taiwan is part of Japanese waters.
Everybody on SDF has pretty thoroughly compared the airforces of America versus China. I think we can all agree that the United States and Japan have the capacity to maintain maintain air superiority along the Ryukyu Islands.
Now, this is a different story ten or fifteen years in the future. I think that by 2035, China has a decent chance of air superiority along the Ryukyu Islands. That's why I believe that now is not the right time for war in Taiwan.
30,000 is the total stationed there, amphibious is much less. Why would they enter a war zone if conflict arises. If they do it before the conflict they will facilitate the start of the war and if they go after they will get sunk.
There are 30,000 soldiers and tens of thousands more American civilians.
Task Force 76 has capacity for 5K troops. As Vincent said, America will first confirm local air superiority along the landing route. By that time, however, there will be more amphibious ready groups in position (and they may also be carrying troops from elsewhere).
So once air superiority is confirmed, America can sail tens of thousands of troops from Okinawa to Taiwan in one day.
Again, this all depends on the strength of the Chinese forces versus the American forces. In 2020 the American forces are superior. In 2035 it's a different story, which is why I again think China needs to have patience.
What you're suggesting is volunteering American troops to be Taiwan's human shields in the hope of deterring China from attacking. Not going to happen.
Yeah, America's going to send its troops to fight the war in Taiwan. Why else does America have tens of thousands of troops in Okinawa? Everybody knows why those troops are there.