China need a new geopolitical Doctrine ?
- Thread starter MrCrazyBoyRavi
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With all of these western nations open hostility toward anything china , cries for a nuclear parity. Anything less than 50% of american nuclear parity means slow death for china. It doesn’t matter if china is bigger than USA in nominal gdp, US always have upper hand due to military might and world reserve currency. It doesn’t matter how big a buffaloo is against an average male lion. When the middle east conflict is over, we will see US flexing its full military might in SCS.
China has not been sitting still on nukes, as all the threads posted about it has clearly demonstrated. Optimally if China can match the qualitative top 10% of the old Soviet nuclear arsenal at its peak (eg., 90 SS-24s, 300 SS-18s etc) then the US has no chance of surviving a nuclear conflict.
So consider this situation, say hypothetically US wanted to do a suprise nuclear first strike on China and take out the CCP before China had chance to retailate. Now US is putting medium range nukes all around China, and can strike within 3 to five minutes.... This isn't enough time for Xi to order a strike...
Even so, all the US has to do is disable GPS and China's nukes are blind, sure China has its own BaiDeo now but what if moments before a US strike the US did a high level EMP that knocked out all of China's satetlittles?
Consider the DF-41 for example, China's latest and greatest, is the missile or truck capable of withstanding an EMP blast? does it have accurate internal guidance if it cannot rely on GPS etc?
Unlike Russa/USSR the CHina does not have a Perimeter/deadhand system and I can see how that might incentivize certain hostile superpower to roll the dice so to speak with a first strike for an "final solution" against China.
Far as I know China doesn't even have an early warning system, and it would be too late anyway if it was a sub firing SLBM right off China's east coast.
If the US was planning such the logistics of everything would give it away months in advance, and of which any of the launching positions would also be in targeting range of Chinese nuclear IRBMs, as well as Chinese anti-sats wiping out US GPS satellites (a capability already demonstrated in 2007 with ground launched missiles). In addition the major scale up of Chinese nuclear forces also entail increased C4I capability for utilization, which also includes more OTH radars and such to support both counterforce units and growing ABM systems. Furthermore any US SSBNs operating that close to Chinese shores would be well in detection range of both SOSUS type systems and LIDAR/EM tracking as well, which is why this type of notion (which I've debated with old Cold War nuclear planners in the past) is a false assumption.
have you played something like CMANO ?
if so, what is your opinion on its utility as a simulator
I haven't played CMANO itself, but I'm very familiar with its predecessors including the the Harpoon series. CMANO is good for grasping the dynamics of operational conflict in continuous time, the limitations is that the civilian version has preset data values for many of the weapons systems being modeled so that isn't necessarily the most accurate model to base strategy off of. The professional version would be best but of course is restricted customer base.
For political strategy a game like EVE online actually plays out quite well what nation-states would do given the opportunity to do anything.
China doesn't have extensive alliances but there are now significant nation states which China has the ability to lead in sizable coalitions, especially considering issues like Hong Kong. Here is the map of 52 countries which supported China on the NSL, after this was printed it was joined later on by Algeria, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Morocco, Serbia... for a total of 70 countries. Not perfect, and China needs to continue cultivating relationships, but to say China is isolated is completely false at this point. Also, when push comes to shove, China does enjoy mutual support from Russia these days.
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Hendrik_2000
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It is not easy to knock out Chinese missile system as they are widely dispersed in cave, railway tunnel, submarine and mobile launcher all over China I say it is impossiblity since it cover thousand of miles area
Ballistic missile guidance does not depend on GPS It is inertial guidance aided by star constellation guidance. Unlike tactical missile nuclear missile does not have to be accurate within meter Heck 100 m accuracy what is the difference you are dead anyway from the blast
Where did you get that China does not have early warning system? Of course they do Early warning system consists of ground based radar , satellite infra red warning system and battle magagement system. China did have ground based missile radar for eon, They are building infra red satellite early warning and of course the battle management Putin just blur it out that Russia is helping china with the system
In October 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly at the annual Valdai Club gathering in Sochi that Russia is “now helping… Chinese partners create a missile attack warning system.” What can be the end goal and means to achieve it?
What Do We Know?
Importantly, the possibility of cooperation between Russia and China on a missile attack warning system was mentioned earlier this year by Evgeny Buzhinsky, a retired general and a prominent Russian expert in military affairs, at a on Russian-Chinese relations hosted by Russian International Affairs Council. The Chinese side had asked for such cooperation for some time, and now, under the ever-growing “strategic partnership,” Russia has finally responded to such requests positively.
Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, , that all works will be completed “in due time.”
An early warning system is traditionally based on two layers: Ground with long-range radar stations and space with satellites designed to detect launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Russia achieved full coverage on the ground-based part not long ago, although construction of new stations continue. The situation with regard to the space layer is more complicated, although the third Tundra satellite of the EKS system has been since September 2019, and the system’s trajectories are designed to provide as permanent coverage of missile-threatening areas as possible.
Are you implying that China should increase its fleet substantially in the SCS so that they can project the power through the Malacca straits all the way to East Africa? The main adversary just may cut China's trade links along that route.
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