China need a new geopolitical Doctrine ?

Laviduce said:

US Neocon Think Tank: "...Even before the outbreak of COVID-19, China served as an irresponsible global actor, who destabilized and undermined the peace and prosperity of the free world..."

I could erase the word China from this sentence and replace it with the words United States and the sentence would be more fitting. I am trying to understand the US Neocons (and Neolibs) and their twisted fundamentalist ideology but comments like the one above make it difficult for me to really understand them. Can anyone please explain to me how people can be so out-of-touch with reality, get a platform and get away with it for so long?

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They tell people with power what they want to hear, and are good at deflecting the blame away from their bad policies. Sometimes both at the same time.

SoupDumplings said:

They tell people with power what they want to hear, and are good at deflecting the blame away from their bad policies. Sometimes both at the same time.

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From Trump to his mob, none tells the truth. An example is the COVID-19, the US hawks base their emotion rather then science to find out the source. If you can't find anything, blame China, that's their mantra. By the way, early in the piece, some US states did request from China PPEs which China supplied, which Trump's mob never mentioned. Alibaba donated tons of PPEs to US, did Trump and his mob ever acknowledge? NO! With China's 5000 years history and culture compared with US 250 years, it's blatantly clear which country has the wisdom.

SoupDumplings said:

This is good, but sadly I think the the EU's weariness of China has increased. Remember that Germany was also the first in Europe to make it illegal for Chinese companies to buy European companies for a year. I think the EU recognises that they need China for their economy, but may start to diversify (not decouple) with other Asian countries. China needs to find a way to prevent the EU from leaning toward the US. A good start would be to provide a surprisingly good deal in their upcoming trade meeting. Maybe in exchange for the Dutch letting ASML sell their equipment?


So far, it looks like the EU is staying out of the Hong Kong events. This is very good, now China just needs to handle 5(4?) eyes.

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There is no realistic alternative to China.

The EU will probably diversify their trade, but the overall trend is still more economic interaction with the Chinese economy in the future.

AndrewS said:

There is no realistic alternative to China.

The EU will probably diversify their trade, but the overall trend is still more economic interaction with the Chinese economy in the future.

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Trade? Good luck trying to sell more to Southeast asia, a dozen nations each with a different level of market access barriers, language barriers and trade policies. And their economical stability is at the mercy of US interest rate, which can cause a currency run at a moment notice(Vietnam, Indonesia, Innsia. Beside Chinese companies are going large in there already, ranging from automobiles, electronic, agricultural. In return, China is already by far their largest buyer of goods, including important goods like crude palm oil and coals, which is crucial for Malaysia and Indonesia, which EU is going to stun soon.

Sourcing? A fantasy to think Vietnam(or India) is comparable to China when it comes to production of products. Already I have news of fabric companies moving out of Vietnam to Cambodia due to soaring land prices, which is not justified by any improvement in infrastructures. And even the first wave of Chinese facs move out to Vietnam is already returning back due to labour shortage and surging min wage.

hullopilllw said:

Trade? Good luck trying to sell more to Southeast asia, a dozen nations each with a different level of market access barriers, language barriers and trade policies. And their economical stability is at the mercy of US interest rate, which can cause a currency run at a moment notice(Vietnam, Indonesia, Innsia. Beside Chinese companies are going large in there already, ranging from automobiles, electronic, agricultural. In return, China is already by far their largest buyer of goods, including important goods like crude palm oil and coals, which is crucial for Malaysia and Indonesia, which EU is going to stun soon.

Sourcing? A fantasy to think Vietnam(or India) is comparable to China when it comes to production of products. Already I have news of fabric companies moving out of Vietnam to Cambodia due to soaring land prices, which is not justified by any improvement in infrastructures. And even the first wave of Chinese facs move out to Vietnam is already returning back due to labour shortage and surging min wage.

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I agree.

It's also interesting how we now see the US seeing widespread protests and riots.

In retrospect, this was the obvious result of:

1. a COVID-19 lockdown
2. the subsequent increase in unemployment to 30% (Great Depression levels)
3. the pre-existing grievances of the Black minority.
4. how the lockdown really hit the Black minority from an economic and death rate perspective
5. the lack of universal healthcare
6. the paucity of social security net
7. the basic anti-government and anti-authority ethos that the US is built on.

Given the economic situation is still going to get far worse in the USA, it does look like the US is going to be wracked with protests, particularly since we're now entering summer which has the peculiar distinction of being the time when major revolutions/protests occur throughout history.

I theorise that it's a combination the free time plus the sweltering heat that causes people to protest

So I also noticed NBC is now repeating the following growth estimates for 2020
a) China - 1% growth
b) US - a 6% contraction

Given the likelihood of continued riots and protests in the USA this year, I'm thinking that the economic contraction is going to be even worse than currently forecast.

So in summary:
1. the Chinese economy will come out stronger than the US economy, both on a relative AND absolute basis.
2. the economic and political climate in the USA is going to be very angry

This is the best English-language article I've seen that has come out on Chinese Grand Strategy.

It's repeating a lot of what we already know here, but lays it out succinctly in a single long article.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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MrCrazyBoyRavi said:

As China is growing in size, and have global political, economical and military footprint , I think China's non interference doctrine is kinda old fashioned and redundant . China is almost a superpower now but can't back up it stature . Current china's relation vis-a-vis Anglophone nations reminds me of 2 opium war when western nations pact forced china to submit to accept unfair trade agreement and led to century of humiliation.
China's reluctancy to take sides in international affairs and back up friendly nation with military or economic aid will only isolate China internationally. Just look how India locked horns with China on behalf of Bhutan .While India is busy playing geopolitical game forging alliance and China is isolating itself day by day.

China must make alliance now. If World's solo superpower USA need allies then China 3rd powerful nation definitely needs allies. whether u make allies based on common ideology, or buy alliance or make alliance with nations with common foe. May be China can start from Asian nations and forming Pan-Asianism or something like that.

just my 2cent.

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There are forums available in SCO and Eurasia,China has already built a soft alliance based on Belt and Roads,so a better start would be to look at willing members in SCO and Belt and Road project.China needs to extend strategic reach in immediate neighborhood,especially South Asia.With Afghan peace process gradually moving forward,China can look at expansion into West Asia and Middle East as well. Since Indo Pacific and Quad alliance is specifically targeted against China,there is a need to develop maritime cooperation in Indian Ocean and identify the forces of disruption who are trying to join the regional block with Extra regional powers

MrCrazyBoyRavi said:

As China is growing in size, and have global political, economical and military footprint , I think China's non interference doctrine is kinda old fashioned and redundant . China is almost a superpower now but can't back up it stature . Current china's relation vis-a-vis Anglophone nations reminds me of 2 opium war when western nations pact forced china to submit to accept unfair trade agreement and led to century of humiliation.
China's reluctancy to take sides in international affairs and back up friendly nation with military or economic aid will only isolate China internationally. Just look how India locked horns with China on behalf of Bhutan .While India is busy playing geopolitical game forging alliance and China is isolating itself day by day.

China must make alliance now. If World's solo superpower USA need allies then China 3rd powerful nation definitely needs allies. whether u make allies based on common ideology, or buy alliance or make alliance with nations with common foe. May be China can start from Asian nations and forming Pan-Asianism or something like that.

just my 2cent.

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A balanced analysis published in the Nation,must read

Wow! I never thought I would ever agree with a right-wing German politician. But I find myself agreeing almost every word with Dr Max Krah of the extreme right wing AfD party! From China's rise to USA fight for number one status. But especially so on Taiwan!

BERLIN
German politician: ‘Why should we risk our relations with China?’
Dr. Maximilian Krah, member of the European Parliament for the Eurosceptic Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and Vice Chairman of the EP China Friendship Group in an exclusive FreeWestMedia interview.

Published: May 20, 2020, 3:33 pm

AndrewS said:

This is the best English-language article I've seen that has come out on Chinese Grand Strategy.

It's repeating a lot of what we already know here, but lays it out succinctly in a single long article.

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The lot in that article assumes that US allies in Asia hold the same values. I'm not talking about what they say in public. It's what they do in practice. Yeah no one in Asia wants to see China dominant but they will hold the same position for anyone else if they were the top power in the region. That's why nationalism is one of the worst in Asia. They said the same things about Japan in 80s. Just look at Hong Kong. The protest leaders are all silent over the police murder of George Floyd. Why? Because it has nothing to do with them. They know the consequences if they actually live up to what they claim to believe to be against police brutality and human rights violations. Their main sponsor the US government would get angry and lesson or rid support for them if they came out in support of US protestors and rioting against US police brutality and human rights violations.

If the US lost influence and power in the world, what would its Asian allies do? They won't be banning together against China. They're sycophants like they've always been. They will follow whatever power is out there for there own self-interests including China just like they do business with China right now.