China need a new geopolitical Doctrine ?


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t2contra

Major
Basically, I'm not saying China will break the deal or not. I'am saying there is lot of hype about the deal.
CHina is more interested to appease US than to challenge US trough a real CSP with Iran.
You wrote:
Because in the past, China choose to throw Iran under the bus to appease US.
The talks on the deal with Iran begin since 2016 but nothing really concrete came out of it.
Was there a deal that China broke?

Anyway, since 2016, there has been quite a hectic new development between China and USA. Did you notice? Trade war leading to the Phase One deal, war on Huawei, US interference on Hong Kong and now Tiktok. Can you see the new calculus for China? Can you see that the past does not apply as much to China now?

Also, read up the perspective of this Iranian, Dr Fariborz Saremi, regarding the deal:
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gadgetcool5

Junior Member
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You sound like Gordon Chang. Never ending prediction of doom and gloom.
I am simply reacting to events. I would love it if there was more good news! Unfortunately there is a trend this year towards the bad. But in reality I hate Gordon Chang! He is a fool.

My view is actually a very simple 4 quadrant system. 3 of the quadrants are positive/good, only one is bad.

1st quadrant: China is technologically ahead, and has good foreign relations. A perfect environment all around! China could be a world #1 superpower in this scenario.

2nd quadrant: China is technologically behind, but has good foreign relations. Still a good situation for China! It can buy the technology/tools it needs.

3rd quadrant: China is technologically ahead, but has bad foreign relations. Still good for China! It doesn't need other countries, because it is the most advanced itself.

4th quadrant: China is technologically behind, and has bad foreign relations. This is the only situation I don't think is so good. China is still behind the West in technology, yet it has bad foreign relations.

Things that I think would be great news:
1. If China's birthrate increased.
2. If China settled any of its foreign disputes.
3. If China leaped ahead of the West in a core technological area like engines, SME, biotech, or space exploration.
4. If China liberalized its domestic political environment.
5. If China's capital markets/stock market became as deep as the US.
6. If China's PC OS had wide adoption replacing MS Windows.
7. If China improved its social welfare system, free housing, reduced healthcare costs, lower childcare costs.
8. If China allowed migrant workers more rights in cities/urban areas.
 
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gadgetcool5

Junior Member
Registered Member
One more thing. There are many companies that are going to relocate out of China due to various reasons, including trade risks, tariffs, the Hong Kong sanctions, etc.

China can take advantage of this by subsidizing the relocation towards countries that are more friendly to it, like Cambodia, as opposed to say, India. It should approach these companies and offer to help if they will choose to relocate in a friendly foreign country. By doing this, it can also improve its relations with those countries.
 

ougoah

Captain
Registered Member
One more thing. There are many companies that are going to relocate out of China due to various reasons, including trade risks, tariffs, the Hong Kong sanctions, etc.

China can take advantage of this by subsidizing the relocation towards countries that are more friendly to it, like Cambodia, as opposed to say, India. It should approach these companies and offer to help if they will choose to relocate in a friendly foreign country. By doing this, it can also improve its relations with those countries.
That's not how it works. No organisation will relocate to a place of China's choosing. It will be motivated by a careful reevaluation of their long term plans and what each country could offer if they want to or forced to move. Very few large companies have left China except a few small, low value assemblers and manufacturers. Most manufacturing have stayed in China.

Lots of cheap goods of the low value end I see have moved from India to China recently since 2019. I've bought some cheap t-shirts and bath towels from retail brands who used to source those products from India in 2018 (products are dated) and now the ones I bought last month are all Chinese made. Same retail brands like Walmarts/ K-Marts/ Targets/ Costco's own brands. This is of course a small example of nothing but India til this date has been going on about replacing China as manufacturer for the last 10 years and gotten absolute effing nowhere during this decade. I see western/ Chinese/ Japanese/ Korean manufacturing of cheap goods going to Thailand, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Philippines WAYYYYYY before they go to India. All those nations are more stable, developed, better infrastructure, better transportation, better logistics, better work ethic, than India. What sane business goes to India in reality. Most just talk about it but it stops there.

There have been some relocations to Vietnam but these are mostly Chinese companies aiming to get around tariffs. It's a joke. Not a single serious company has yet moved out of China. At most they've entertained the idea but no action on the ground. Apple is thinking and planning to build some assembly plant in India for one economy model of their iPhone I recall reading. Get back to us when the production line starts and then it'll still be in a place where China was in the freakin 1990s. The rest are random small no name operations but China is going strong still with attracting every developer and group looking to source and produce things.
 
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I am simply reacting to events.
React to real events though, not mountain-out-of-molehill/patently untrue events with full commitment on belief.
I would love it if there was more good news! Unfortunately there is a trend this year towards the bad.
Not if you view the competition as zero sum...
But in reality I hate Gordon Chang! He is a fool.
Stop, you're driving him up the walls! You're like the spicy crush who keeps playing hard to get with him but deep down, you both know you're perfect for each other.
My view is actually a very simple 4 quadrant system. 3 of the quadrants are positive/good, only one is bad.

1st quadrant: China is technologically ahead, and has good foreign relations. A perfect environment all around! China could be a world #1 superpower in this scenario.

2nd quadrant: China is technologically behind, but has good foreign relations. Still a good situation for China! It can buy the technology/tools it needs.

3rd quadrant: China is technologically ahead, but has bad foreign relations. Still good for China! It doesn't need other countries, because it is the most advanced itself.

4th quadrant: China is technologically behind, and has bad foreign relations. This is the only situation I don't think is so good. China is still behind the West in technology, yet it has bad foreign relations.
So overly simplified that it doesn't make sense. Technologically ahead in what areas, behind in what areas? Good/bad/intermediate foreign relations with whom? How far ahead/behind and how fast are you/they moving? Your quadrants are funny like a child's attempt to design a rocket.
Things that I think would be great news:
1. If China's birthrate increased.
2. If China settled any of its foreign disputes.
3. If China leaped ahead of the West in a core technological area like engines, SME, biotech, or space exploration.
4. If China liberalized its domestic political environment.
5. If China's capital markets/stock market became as deep as the US.
6. If China's PC OS had wide adoption replacing MS Windows.
7. If China improved its social welfare system, free housing, reduced healthcare costs, lower childcare costs.
8. If China allowed migrant workers more rights in cities/urban areas.
Real slick; almost didn't see 4. What a coincidence; that's what Gordon Chang wants. You both want Mainland China in chaos like liberal Hong Kong and for the Chinese government to lose the ability to fight off interference from hostile governments within China.
One more thing. There are many companies that are going to relocate out of China due to various reasons, including trade risks, tariffs, the Hong Kong sanctions, etc.
Not really. It seems commitment to China is stable or mildly rising over the years.
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China can take advantage of this by subsidizing the relocation towards countries that are more friendly to it, like Cambodia, as opposed to say, India. It should approach these companies and offer to help if they will choose to relocate in a friendly foreign country. By doing this, it can also improve its relations with those countries.
Pay foreign companies money to move to destinations of your selection? LOL Do you think someone might take advantage of that maybe? Save your money for building Chinese businesses. Better to spend your money lifting yourself up than wasting it trying to drag others down.
 
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Weaasel

Junior Member
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Confronted with an increasingly hostile external environment post-coronavirus, Beijing plans to reduce China’s reliance on the outside world and focus on its domestic market for economic growth.
I am simply reacting to events. I would love it if there was more good news! Unfortunately there is a trend this year towards the bad. But in reality I hate Gordon Chang! He is a fool.

My view is actually a very simple 4 quadrant system. 3 of the quadrants are positive/good, only one is bad.

1st quadrant: China is technologically ahead, and has good foreign relations. A perfect environment all around! China could be a world #1 superpower in this scenario.

2nd quadrant: China is technologically behind, but has good foreign relations. Still a good situation for China! It can buy the technology/tools it needs.

3rd quadrant: China is technologically ahead, but has bad foreign relations. Still good for China! It doesn't need other countries, because it is the most advanced itself.

4th quadrant: China is technologically behind, and has bad foreign relations. This is the only situation I don't think is so good. China is still behind the West in technology, yet it has bad foreign relations.

Things that I think would be great news:
1. If China's birthrate increased.
2. If China settled any of its foreign disputes.
3. If China leaped ahead of the West in a core technological area like engines, SME, biotech, or space exploration.
4. If China liberalized its domestic political environment.
5. If China's capital markets/stock market became as deep as the US.
6. If China's PC OS had wide adoption replacing MS Windows.
7. If China improved its social welfare system, free housing, reduced healthcare costs, lower childcare costs.
8. If China allowed migrant workers more rights in cities/urban areas.
1. This should happen.
2. In what way? Are the other sides prepared for official compromise as well? Should it just be complete capitulation?
3. China is and has long been making steady improvements and will continue to do so.
4. In what way? Western style adversarial democracy has been proven to be a model that has so many flaws and is not necessarily a better system for ensuring competent governance and administration.
5. Depth isn't what is substantive about raising capital, even with depth it is where and what the capital raised is directed to that is most important.
6. China can definitely do this domestically and quite easily if it wanted to.
7. This should happen.
8. You should know that it is definitely being gradually relaxed. If China had kept implemented the hukou system as it developed, instead of having very organized and modern cities with generally equitable and good to excellent infrastructure and services, with very few slums, major cities would be full of slums even if not as extensive as India's, but probably comparable to those of most Brazilian major cities. That would mean modern and gleaming cores and squalor full peripheries.
 

Dolcevita

Senior Member
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Confronted with an increasingly hostile external environment post-coronavirus, Beijing plans to reduce China’s reliance on the outside world and focus on its domestic market for economic growth.


1. This should happen.
2. In what way? Are the other sides prepared for official compromise as well? Should it just be complete capitulation?
3. China is and has long been making steady improvements and will continue to do so.
4. In what way? Western style adversarial democracy has been proven to be a model that has so many flaws and is not necessarily a better system for ensuring competent governance and administration.
5. Depth isn't what is substantive about raising capital, even with depth it is where and what the capital raised is directed to that is most important.
6. China can definitely do this domestically and quite easily if it wanted to.
7. This should happen.
8. You should know that it is definitely being gradually relaxed. If China had kept implemented the hukou system as it developed, instead of having very organized and modern cities with generally equitable and good to excellent infrastructure and services, with very few slums, major cities would be full of slums even if not as extensive as India's, but probably comparable to those of most Brazilian major cities. That would mean modern and gleaming cores and squalor full peripheries.
Sounds like China is good shape overall. Expect to see a new set of list from GC.
 

Wangxi

Junior Member
Registered Member

visitor123

New Member
Registered Member
China can take advantage of this by subsidizing the relocation towards countries that are more friendly to it, like Cambodia, as opposed to say, India. It should approach these companies and offer to help if they will choose to relocate in a friendly foreign country. By doing this, it can also improve its relations with those countries.
that's the dumbest **** I've read today.

"improve relations"
I can actually seeing you living your life under the boots and feeling comfortable about it.
 

gadgetcool5

Junior Member
Registered Member
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It is becoming daily, China must respond strongly

But the real question is with what kind of sanction China can hit the USA? restrict rare earths?

If China does not respond, the US will be emboldened and will see this as a sign of weakness.
If China wants to make a point, it should sanction Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and/or US Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) in retaliation, since they run concentration camps, lock children up in cages, and separate families, all for a racist motive. This would draw attention to the US's equivalent abuses and point out its hypocrisy.
 
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