I think they're moving the old DF-31s to silos and having DF-31AG as the "medium" ICBM while DF-41 is the "heavy" ICBM.
China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
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antiterror13
Brigadier
What is the rationale putting "old" DF-31 into the silo? did you mean DF-31 or DF-31A ?
nobody knows the exact information.
there is also heavy silo based DF-5B/DF-5C ICBMs..
as per US report, China deployed DF-41 in newly constructed silos.
Usually such photo ops include whole unit personnel. If so, how plausible is it that df31 unit has 48 troops, as seen here?
12 launcher vehicles?
Comms vehicles, survey vehicle, command vehicle? What else?
Nice episode with some relevant tidbits. Including: JL-3 is the interim JL-2 successor on 094 (supposedly not named 2A/B because they didn't like the name) which you shouldn't have "overly high expectations" for, JL-4 is for 096. And that western reports on the underground great wall are overblown (particularly the 5000km figure). Yankee also mentioned offhand KJ-500 count exceeds E-2D already. And lots of other stuff.
I am just wondering if they mentioned anything from their perspective about next-gen ICBM?
I am still skeptical of the designation of "JL-3" as it is merely supposed to be an extended-range version of JL-2 and given the precedence of DF-31A to DF-31, no reason to name it as "JL-3." As for SLBM for 096, it is another beast for decades to come, at least from public information.
Underground Great Wall is never real from the very beginning. The idea is to make first strike uneconomical for the adversary and ideally one needs to build separate shelters around the country instead of a tunnel 5000km long.
Which means the US Navy likely already got the accurate information back in 2022 when they already mentioned that the 094/A SSBNs are armed with JL-3 SL-ICBMs. We just didn't know any better back then.
According to Northrop Grumman's official webpage, there should be at least 70x E-2Ds in service around the world right now.
This should mean that China's AEW&C fleet reaching three digits should be a matter of within these 2-3 years, at most.
The video is for paid members only. Can you explain more?
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If the USN openly acknowledged the JL-3's entry into service in 2022, then it most likely occured at least 2-3 years, maybe even 5+ years before that.
In other words, the JL-3 — whether it is an evolution of the JL-2 or a clean(er) sheet design — is most likely "old news" at this point.
Considering growing and visible American interest and investments in certain space based systems and technologies of a military nature — despite likely implications that will render the Outer Space Treaty and associated norms a thing of the past — more likely than not the PLARF's principal "next-gen ICBM" will not in fact be an ICBM in the traditional sense, but a FOBS or a full blown orbital bombardment system.
This isn't something the Chinese authorities will vocalize for obvious political and diplomatic reasons.
However, if we're to consider both and developments that have been brewing for years, if not decades, the operational deployment of some variety of orbital bombardment technology by both the American and Chinese authorities is practically an inevitability in the coming decades, even if it isn't to publicly manifest in the next five years.
In fact, if we're to consider reporting from our friends at the DIA, the PLARF is expected to possess 60 FOBS by 2035:
Foreign analysts, or at least the competent ones, are reasonably aware of the immense challenge that the PLARF's many UGFs will pose for any adversary in the event of a nuclear exchange.
They know the "Underground Great Wall" is not actually a single tunnel, but in fact a misnomer, even if they keep on employing such terminology out of convenience to describe and reference the PLARF's highly sophisticated UGFs.
I'm somewhat surprised that the JL-3 name is actually going to be used for the interim JL-2 successor (which we previously thought of as JL-2A/B).
But I suppose it's good that it is confirmed, in which case the likelihood of JL-3 being shown at the parade is somewhat higher now, as the timing of its availability/service would correspond with enough maturity for it to be shown at a parade.