China Flanker Thread III (land based, exclude J-15)

[Deino]

Beautiful … but all without serial numbers

 

[Ironhide]

Beautiful … but all without serial numbers

I think its 176th at Dingxin

 

[by78]

A nice image of J-16, nothing more.

 

[by78]

Fueling a J-16 before flight.

 

[Deino]

After a longer break, finally a new J-16 unit confirmed: According to the serial number 73064 this J-16 is assigned to the 125th Air Brigade based at Nanning Wuxu (?).

(Image via Huitong‘s CMA-Blog)

 

[Totoro]

So scramble.nl now lists j16 present in 10 frontline brigades.
Plus one brigade where su-35 are also used, so there might not be many su30 there.
Plus 4 more units with mixed types for training and tactics development.

Given that there might (should?) be 20-30 j16 per frontline brigade, has PLAAF now reached 300 j16 airframes?

 

[Deino]

So scramble.nl now lists j16 present in 10 frontline brigades.
Plus one brigade where su-35 are also used, so there might not be many su30 there.
Plus 4 more units with mixed types for training and tactics development.

Given that there might (should?) be 20-30 j16 per frontline brigade, has PLAAF now reached 300 j16 airframes?

Could be, at least not unlikely ... in fact similar to the J-10C production, we've seen the highest number - a Batch 11 aircraft in November 2022 - and I'm pretty sure, SAC is likely already well within Batch 12 or even 13!

For example in a similar way, the so far highest cn. on a J-10C seen was no. 720 seen in February 2022 ... only on Friday I saw a J-10C with cn. 0925! So in fact we missed two batches! (unfortunately I'm not allowed to post that image yet)

 

[Totoro]

Wait what, are you suggesting there might be 2-4 additional brigades operating j10, compared to numbers we know?

Also, how likely is it that those additional planes have been produced recently and that deliveries to plaaf have in fact never stopped?

 

[Deino]

Wait what, are you suggesting there might be 2-4 additional brigades operating j10, compared to numbers we know?

Also, how likely is it that those additional planes have been produced recently and that deliveries to plaaf have in fact never stopped?

Well, I would say it is proven, the number is clearly '925' spotted in November, so at least IMO there must be another 8th & 9th Batch built between February 2022 and November 2023 aka at least - based on and estimated size of likely 30 per Batch - at least 50-60 additional J-10Cs built within 21 months.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Well, I would say it is proven, the number is clearly '925' spotted in November, so at least IMO there must be another 8th & 9th Batch built between February 2022 and November 2023 aka at least - based on and estimated size of likely 30 per Batch - at least 50-60 additional J-10Cs built within 21 months.

That would mean an average of 2.61x J-10Cs were made each month - Per year (12 months), that would be ~31 J-10Cs.

Doesn't sound anywhere interesting at first, but coupled with the ~100x J-20s said to roll off the production line at Chengdu in 2023 - That's ~130 airframes by Chengdu alone, which is pretty damn impressive on their own.