China demographics thread.

[Xizor]

That's garbage. I don't care what "demographers" quoted by a tabloid say, I care what statistics in respected international institutions say - like the World bank data I linked.

I'm done with this nonsense thread anyway. What a waste of time.

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But the 1.1 figure raised by @Bob Smith is him exercising his cynicism on all things China. And he is wrong for that. China has focused on improving the quality of statistics ( especially under Xi). Good statistics is needed for effective governance.

 

[Sleepyjam]

Along with a bunch of other commentators of Chinese fertility data, yeah.

Like who are those other commentators? I’m not necessarily accusing you making things up.

 

[Bob Smith]

Like who are those other commentators?

Yi Fuxian is one of them. Don't care to name everyone who continually dumpsters on inaccurate Chinese fertility data.

 

[Fedupwithlies]

delete

 

[Bob Smith]

Do you trust this?

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But the 1.1 figure raised by @Bob Smith is him exercising his cynicism on all things China. And he is wrong for that. China has focused on improving the quality of statistics ( especially under Xi). Good statistics is needed for effective governance.

Funny, everyone in the West would call me a wumao because of how pro China I am. I just think they should take their plummeting fertility rates as seriously as they take poverty.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

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I certainly do and it seems the matter is settled.

全国人大通过的国家“十四五”规划纲要也明确提出，要推动实现适度生育水平，减轻家庭生育、养育、教育的成本，释放生育政策的潜力。根据国家统计局的有关调查，我国育龄妇女的生育意愿子女数为1.8，只要做好相应的支持措施，实际存在的生育潜力就能发挥出来

What's important is that - like air pollution a decade ago - the government has recognized that this is a structural problem and will comprehensively solve it. I expect they'll do so successfully (at least the goal of 1.8 they implied).

Thanks for linking that.

So, I did read that. I'm not seeing anything about a 1.3% Fertility rate from

What I am seeing is this:

"Census data shows that the number of children aged 0-14 in my country will reach 253.38 million in 2020, an increase of 30.92 million over 2010, and the proportion has risen by 1.35 percentage points."

Or in other words... Reuters mis-translated or mis-interpreted his statement.

第三，生育率降低。七人普数据表明，2020年我国育龄妇女总和生育率为1.3，已经处于较低水平

 

[Fedupwithlies]

I certainly do and it seems the matter is settled.

What's important is that - like air pollution a decade ago - the government has recognized that this is a structural problem and will comprehensively solve it. I expect they'll do so successfully (at least the goal of 1.8 they implied).

Oh my god its the 2nd last paragraph. I'll be honest, I was already cross-eyed when I got to that point, must've missed it. Thanks.

 

[Xizor]

From the

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First, the birth population is large. In 2016 and 2017, the number of births in China increased sharply, exceeding 18 million and 17 million, respectively, which were more than 2 million and more than 1 million more than before the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child policy". Since 2018, the number of births has dropped. The preliminary summary of the seven-person census shows that the number of births in my country will be 12 million in 2020, and this scale is still not small.

Second, the proportion of "two children" is high. From the perspective of the number of births, the proportion of “second children” in the birth population increased significantly from 2014 to 2017, from about 30% in 2013 to about 50% in 2017. Although it has declined since then, it is still higher than 40%. %, due to the adjustment of the childbirth policy, the number of "second children" born in the country reached more than 10 million.

Third, the fertility rate has decreased. Seven-population statistics show that the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China in 2020 is 1.3, which is already at a relatively low level. This is mainly due to the continuous decrease in the number of women of childbearing age and the gradual weakening of the "two-child" effect. From the perspective of 2020, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has increased life uncertainty and worries about hospitalized delivery, and further reduced residents' willingness to give birth.

---

1.According to a survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of children of women of childbearing age in China is 1.8. 根据国家统计局的有关调查，我国育龄妇女的生育意愿子女数为1.8

2. Seven-population statistics show that the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China in 2020 is 1.3
七人普数据表明，2020年我国育龄妇女总和生育率为1.3

---

From the above two sentences, two things are apparent. One is that fertility rate is down because a share of women in the women of childbearing age is not bearing children. When they do procreate however, they bear nearly two children.

 

[broadsword]

There is quite a bit of anxiety as haters like Sleepstudent trolled. I don't feel that way because the Chinese government will act on the issue with carrots and sticks in a matter of time.

 

[Sleepyjam]

Yi Fuxian is one of them. Don't care to name everyone who continually dumpsters on inaccurate Chinese fertility data.

Lol I wouldnt believe someone who blames the poor relations between China and US on the one child policy.